NBA Trade Grades: Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat

It’s now official: For the first time in nearly three years, the Miami Heat have completed a trade for a player who was not a free agent! The Heat acquired Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier Monday morning–nearly two weeks ahead of the Feb. 8 NBA Trade Deadline–in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a protected first-round pick. Let’s hand out some good ol’ fashioned trade grades!

OFFICIAL: The Miami HEAT have acquired guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a protected 2027 first round pick.

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) January 23, 2024

Heat acquire: Terry Rozier

Rozier fits a desperate need for the Miami Heat, who sorely needed a capable three-level scoring punch in the backcourt. The Heat rank No. 20 in the NBA in offense and No. 28 in offense over their last 10 games. While there’s more than just one problem, Rozier helps alleviate some of those struggles.

First, let’s address the financials: Rozier is on the books for $23.2 million this year, $24.9 million in 2024-25 and $26.6 million in 2025-26, the final year of his deal. Though his final year is partially guaranteed–$24.9 million is guaranteed and it will become fully guaranteed if he plays at least 70 games and makes it to the second round of the playoffs in 2023-24 or 2024-25.

As a result of flipping Lowry’s $29.7 million, the Miami Heat’s tax bill will dip roughly $15 million. It will also be rewarded a $6.5 trade exception plus opening up its $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception if it wants to use it, according to NBA cap insider Yossi Gozlan. Gozlan and NBA capologist Brian Goins of Miami Heat Beat note that the TPMLE will prorate past the deadline to sign buyout players, a new change to the recently signed CBA.

The Heat are also $6.3 million below the second apron, opening up the $5 million taxpayer mid-level.

It could be used to pursue buyout players. But they still can’t sign players making $12.4 million or more. They need to get below the first apron to do that ($4.2 million above). https://t.co/cCnSyBlElX

— Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) January 23, 2024

To add to Yossi’s tweet, Miami’s $5M T-MLE will begin to prorate after the Trade Deadline (2/8/24), which is a new CBA change.

Starting the day after the Trade Deadline (2/9/24), its value will be ~$4.1M and will decrease in value by ~$28.7K each day. https://t.co/AWFrrCq0Dz

— Brian Goins (@byBrianGoins) January 23, 2024

Financially, this makes all the sense in the world for the Heat if they want to avoid the vaunted second apron; plus, it opens up additional flexibility ahead of the deadline to make additional moves and take on more salary without pushing into that threshold, if it chooses to.

Now let’s discuss the on-court fit: Rozier’s having a career year with the Charlotte Hornets.

That’s come in part of his on-ball usage receiving an uptick due to LaMelo Ball missing 21 of the team’s 41 games due to injury. Nevertheless, he is averaging 23.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.1 steals, shooting 45.9 percent from the floor, 35.8 percent from deep on 7.7 triple tries per game and 84.5 percent from the free-throw line.

Terry Rozier immediately becomes one of the Heat’s top rim pressures, taking nearly half of his shots within 14 feet, including 27 percent of his field goal tries at the rim (58th percentile among guards), per Cleaning The Glass. None of the Heat’s active guards exceed a rim rate of 20 percent.

Rozier’s converting on nearly 57 percent of his rim attempts and 54 percent of his shots within 14 feet, a pedestrian mark but one that could be looked at as a decent mark for his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame. Though the Heat lacked a presence who could consistently apply that rim pressure, let alone convert at a reasonable rate.

The 29-year-old also has an incredibly crafty in-between game, where he’s converting roughly 50.0 percent of his attempts; he has an array of in-and-out crossovers, side steps and snatch-backs to get to his spots while pulling up with good lift and confidence. Rozier is also an underrated playmaker. Not all assists are created equal, but his 30.3 assist percentage would be the highest on the Heat by over nine percentage points.

Rozier’s a good lob passer in the halfcourt and in transition….

He can navigate the pick-and-roll or double-drag, whether he draws two in a hedge/blitz or against a drop…

And he’s an amicable decision-maker when he’s able to generate paint touches through any action…

Rozier is one of the best pick-and-roll ball-handlers in the sport–ranking second in points per possession in pick-and-roll ballhandling (min. 150 possessions), per NBA.com’s tracking data–and is now paired with one of the league’s top roll men in Bam Adebayo.

He’ll also fit well alongside an elite movement shooter in Duncan Robinson (its best player off-ball) plus average- to above-average cutters in Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez.

I wouldn’t be too concerned about the defense since he’s an upgrade over Lowry, though addressing its point-of-attack will be one of the Heat’s top needs ahead of the deadline.

Grade: A

Hornets acquire: Kyle Lowry, 2027 first-round pick

The Hornets are 10-31 at the time of this publishing, so they are likely going to part with multiple players presumably not named LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams and Brandon Miller. Rozier was atop that list.

Lowry’s in the last year of his three-year, $85 million deal with a cap hit of $29.7 million for the 2023-24 season. Whether the Hornets keep Lowry or buy him out, that figure will be coming off the books next season, in addition to Gordon Hayward’s $31.5 million and Miles Bridges’ $7.9 million they were already going to save. Wanting at least one expiring contract makes sense.

Though the overall value they received for a player having a career year with interest around the league was … little-to-nothing?

It was no secret that the Heat was openly shopping Lowry; while he was having one of the most efficient seasons of his career (in terms of his shooting), Lowry hindered the Heat’s offense because he wasn’t willing to shoot–specifically when he shared the floor with at least two of Herro, Adebayo and Butler.

He hasn’t converted on more than three field goals since Christmas and plenty of players–namely second-year forward Nikola Jovic (over the last 10 games), Herro, Butler and Caleb Martin–initiated offense as often while posing as bigger scoring threats offensively. Quick aside: Kyle Lowry’s tenure with Miami may not be looked at as fondly as it was originally thought to be, but he still had his moments with Miami in both 2021-22 and ’22-23. Ultimately, it appeared both sides were ready to move on, which is what took forth.

The protected pick will also likely get rolled over to 2028 since Heat can’t outright trade its first-round pick in 2027 due to the Stepien rule surrounding its 2025 first-round pick (currently owned by Oklahoma City), which could still convey to 2026.

To acquire Rozier for Lowry, the Heat would’ve (likely) had to attach a first-rounder by itself to get off Lowry’s contract anyway … but the fact that the Heat didn’t have to give up any additional assets is a win for them in itself, in my view.

Grade: C

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