How does the Heat’s playoff rotation currently shape up?

There are nine days until the conclusion of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, which concludes on April 14. There are also six games left in the Miami Heat’s regular season.

Miami is just a half-game behind the Indiana Pacers for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and a half-game ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers for the No. 7 seed. Thus, we don’t officially know if Miami will be in the play-in for the second consecutive season or not. In a perfect world, they’d be 76-0 and win their last 22 games (six reg. season + 16 postseason) … but that’s not how things work, unfortunately.

Nevertheless, the Heat is slowly, but surely getting healthier (**knock on wood**) with Tyler Herro expected to return Friday. Despite Thursday’s loss, they have won four of their last six and seven of their last 11.

With the postseason roughly two weeks away, how does the Heat’s playoff rotation currently shake up? Erik Spoelstra typically likes to go with an 8-9-man rotation in the playoffs with it (inevitably) shrinking the further along they advance. So let’s forecast what it could possibly look like initially!

Starting Lineup:

Terry Rozier, G:

Rozier appeared to have suffered a knee/lower-body injury in Thursday’s loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. But he should still be viewed as a lock to be in the starting lineup unless he’s ruled out for an extended period of time. Since the All-Star break, Rozier’s averaging 19.3 points on 45.4 percent shooting from deep, 41.3 percent from the deep and 90.5 percent from the charity stripe. Better yet, he has six 20-point performances over his last nine games–including a Heat career-best 34 points on 10-of-15 shooting and 8-of-11 from 3-point range Tuesday against the New York Knicks.

Duncan Robinson, G/F:

Even though Herro’s back, I’d lean on starting Robinson over him for the time being. Though Robinson is in a bit of his own funk in his three games since returning from left facet syndrome, going 4-of-17 (23.5 percent) from 3-point range over that span. I still trust Robinson’s gravity and newfound creation abilities off the bounce, but his play will be one to monitor down the stretch.

Jimmy Butler, F:

While Jimmy Butler’s current production, efficiency and, frankly, sheer energy, have been considerably lower this year than it was at this point last year, do I need to say anything? Miami goes as Jimmy Butler goes, so it will need “Playoff Jimmy” to activate for a deep run. Will he flip that switch? I would trust that’s the case, but that remains to be seen.

Nikola Jovic, F:

Jovic’s development has been one to behold. In his second season, he’s averaging 6.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 43.9 percent shooting and 40.5 percent from 3-point range, albeit on 3.2 attempts (57.0 3-point rate); Jovic is converting on 38.0 percent of his long-range spot-up attempts, which has made up for nearly half (49.5 percent) of his shot diet this season.

The offense flows better with him on the court as a connector and secondary ballhandler. He’s also been a ray of sunshine within a cloud of darkness for Miami in transition, where he’s improved toggling between scoring and playmaking based on the advantageous situations presented in front of him. Jovic’s improved monumentally on the defensive end in space and with his discipline–one of his biggest areas of question as a rookie in 2022-23. He deserves to start at this point of the season, even if he doesn’t eat up 30-plus minutes a night.

Bam Adebayo, C:

You can make a case that Adebayo is the Heat’s most valuable player on both ends, so there’s no argument here, barring injury. Next!

Bench Locks (in no order):

Tyler Herro, G:

Tyler Herro made the trip to Houston to begin Miami’s three-game road trip and was upgraded to questionable ahead of Friday’s contest. He’s having arguably the most efficient season of his career, but has missed nearly 53 percent of the season due to myriad lower-body injuries (ankle, foot, knee) and will only have six regular season games to ramp up, which is not a lot of time. Depending on the team’s health (which is always a problem), he could find his way into the starting 5. He’s a talented two-level scorer who’s capable of igniting the Heat offense. But in my view, however, we’re past that point of Herro starting–at least for the remainder of the regular season.

Caleb Martin, G/F:

Miami’s 2022-23 playoff hero got off to a slow start after fighting through knee tendinosis–which can be tricky to navigate. Since the All-Star break, Martin’s averaging 10.1 points on 40.3 percent shooting and 36.4 percent from deep, including 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists. I’m not sure he has another Eastern Conference Finals run in him, but Martin provides a spark of energy and doesn’t necessarily need the ball in his hands to be effective.

Kevin Love, F/C:

Love, 35, is a year removed from a thumb injury on his shooting hand that hampered much of his 2022-23 regular season. Though has been one of the NBA’s best backup bigs this year, supplanting Thomas Bryant–who signed with Miami over the summer–and Orlando Robinson for the lead slot behind Adebayo. He’s averaging 9.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 44.0 percent shooting and 34.3 percent from 3-point range. He opens the floor for Miami’s other creators, while being an above-average rebounder and connector. I wouldn’t be surprised if he thrusted into the starting five depending on the playoff matchup, however.

Should be in … but will he be?

Haywood Highsmith, F:

This is where things get interesting. Highsmith was one of the Heat’s best players Thursday and has played the best basketball of his life over the last two weeks, averaging 14.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals in his last six games. Over that span, Highsmith’s shooting 62.5 percent and has connected on 18 of his 27 triples (66.7 percent), a mark that doesn’t seem sustainable. Though even outside of his scorching hot shooting stretch, he’s converted on 36.1 percent of his 3s, including 37.1 percent of his spot-up attempts (56.9 percent of shot diet).

He’s a spectacular defender with a great sense of knowing where to position himself on (offensive) rebounds and along the baseline. But his shooting could make-or-break his spot in the postseason rotation. As of right now, I think he should be in the initial postseason rotation.

On the fence:

Jaime Jaquez Jr., G/F:

Jaime Jaquez suffered a midseason groin injury that kept him out six games, and he hasn’t been the same since. It was also easy to tell that he was on every team’s scouting report; opposing teams specifically caught on to his spin move (on drives), thus making him less effective inside the arc. The rookie’s still averaging 12.0 points and 3.9 rebounds on 56.9 percent true shooting, but I don’t see him initially making the presumptive nine-man postseason rotation, as of right now.

Not Unless There Is Foul Trouble:

Thomas Bryant, C:

Bryant has not played the last two games with more bodies healthy. But Bryant slowly developed into a more impactful backup big as the year went along, averaging 9.1 points and 5.2 rebounds on 55.6 percent shooting. I would not be surprised if Bryant gets spot minutes at some point–should I remind you all of Cody Zeller?!?–but I’m not banking on it.

Delon Wright, G:

It’s surprising that Spoelstra hasn’t relied on Wright more at the point-of-attack despite his brief shortcomings offensively. I also would not be surprised if he gets spot minutes in the right matchup if Spoelstra wants to #muckitup.

Patty Mills, G:

Erik Spoelstra opted to go to Mills when the Heat needed a psuedo-spacer in Robinson’s absence. Since his return, Mills hasn’t seen the court; he’s only converted on 10 of his 47 3-point attempts (21.3 percent) with Miami, nullifying his impact.

What do you think Miami’s initial postseason rotation looks like right now? Let us know in the comments!

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