Remember when Pat Riley said the Miami Heat were “at the abyss” on media day? Well, we’re finally her—…oh wait, there’s another word for it called the “offseason”?!? Eh, let’s pretend it’s the same thing! Now we just have to get to the other side, which unfortunately won’t be until October!
To help us do that, the Heat, who finished 46-36 and got eliminated Wednesday by the Boston Celtics, have plenty of questions to ask–and answer! To tip-off my third annual offseason preview, let’s dive into a few of them…
1.) Which Heat players are still under contract?
As of right now, there are currently seven players on guaranteed contracts for the 2023-24 season, which make up over $163 million.
Additionally, the Heat have four players with player options — Caleb Martin, Kevin Love, Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant — though I see the latter three exercising their options. Even though Martin had a rocky season, he’s the most likely candidate among the four to opt out of the last year of his three-year, $20.4 million deal.
Miami also has one guaranteed contract on their books: Orlando Robinson, whose $2.12 million would not be fully guaranteed until July 15, 2024.
Here are the players under contract, including the four players on player options and Robinson’s non-guaranteed contract:
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- Jimmy Butler — $48.8M
- Bam Adebayo — $34.8M
- Tyler Herro — $29.0M
- Terry Rozier — $24.9M
- Duncan Robinson — $19.4M
- Caleb Martin — $7.1M; player option
- Kevin Love — $4.0M; player option
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. — $3.7M
- Josh Richardson — $3.1M; player option
- Thomas Bryant — $2.8M; player option
- Nikola Jovic — $2.5M
- Orlando Robinson — $2.1M; non-guaranteed contract
2.) Who are their free agents?
Assuming each player with a PO exercises said option, the Heat will have three free agents.
Two of those players–Delon Wright and Patty Mills, both of whom signed out of the buyout market after the Feb. 9 trade deadline–are unrestricted free agents. Haywood Highsmith is the only Heat player not on a two-way contract who’s a restricted free agent, while Miami’s two-ways Jamal Cain, Cole Swider and Alondes Williams will technically be RFAs.
3.) How much can each free agent make?
Since Wright and Mills signed for prorated minimum salaries, they use their non-bird rights to sign up to four years for 120 percent of the minimum salary. Kevin Love followed that route last offseason, signing a two-year deal worth nearly $8 million with a starting salary of $3.8 million.
For Mills, who would be entering his 16th season if he continues to play, he would have a starting salary that could be as high as approximately $4 million; for Wright, his max starting salary would project to be roughly $3.6 million, assuming the Heat would not be willing to dip into exceptions.
If Miami dipped into its taxpayer or NTMLE, it would hard cap itself either between the first- or second-apron. That would be less-than-ideal to navigate with five of their best players allocating for 111% percent of the team’s cap space, barring a massive shake-up.
4.) Will every free agent be brought back?
I will have an annual column in the future regarding the team’s free agency outlook–who stays, and who goes–up at some point. But I will say that it’s always unrealistic to expect every Heat free agent to return, unless they strike out on everyone else and said free agents are still on the market.
I were to bet money on it right now, at a minimum, I would guess Wright–who’s provided impactful minutes in a smaller sample–and Highsmith, who had an up-and-down season, to return at reasonable price tags.
5.) Are the Heat at risk of becoming a second-apron team?
According to current cap projections, the first apron is expected to be about $178.7 million with the second apron expected to be around $189.5 million. That can change once the final projections get released in July, but let’s assume these are the cap projections.
As I noted above, assuming all options are exercised and contracts become guaranteed, the Heat would have $182.3 million in taxable salaries on its books–nearly $5 million sandwiched in between the first apron and the second apron, per Spotrac. That’s not accounting for 1.) Miami’s 2024 first-round draft pick, which is expected to cost roughly $4 million, and its second-round pick (all under the assumption that Miami keeps both picks) or 2.) Tyler Herro’s $2.5 million in unlikely bonuses for 2024-25.
So, yes, the Heat are currently projected to be a second-apron if all holds true.
Though that can change. Not including the pick, but if Robinson’s contract isn’t guaranteed and Martin opts out of his player option, Miami’s cap dips to $173 million while its tax bill drops over $16 million. If more players decide to opt out or the roster decides to shift around, then that gap widens.
All in all, it’s dependent on myriad factors that occur over the next several weeks; it’s difficult to prognosticate how it proceeds.
6.) Are there any Heat players who are extension-eligible? If so, who?
Yes! In fact, five Heat players are extension-eligible. Who are those five, you ask?
- Jimmy Butler
- Bam Adebayo
- Terry Rozier
- Duncan Robinson
- Caleb Martin
Martin’s likely to opt out of his deal, so I don’t see him getting an “extension,” per say, even though he’s technically eligible for one. And I will touch on both Butler and Adebayo’s extensions shortly, but both are in line for max extensions.
It gets interesting with Robinson and Rozier, who both suffered untimely injuries to the back and neck, respectively, toward the end of the season. Those injuries are very tricky to navigate; Robinson looked like a shell of himself being sidelined with left facet syndrome twice. Rozier, who averaged 21.2 points on 45.5/48.7/100 shooting splits (59.6 TS%) over a nine-game stretch from March 18 to April 4, missed the team’s final 10 games (including play-in) due to neck spasms.
Both injuries needed to be taken with precaution, but it’s fair to question how these affect their future standing with the team–and, more importantly, their playing careers. I’m no doctor, but back and neck injuries can not only prematurely end careers, but compromise livelihoods.
I don’t foresee either getting an extension, but it’s hard to shake how this season could’ve been different if they (plus Butler, others) were healthy.
7.) So … Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo extensions, eh?
Ah, yes, let’s address the meat and potatoes of the Heat’s offseason extension plans.
Adebayo will be eligible for a three-year, $165 million extension that would not kick in until the 2026-27 season, while Butler is eligible for a two-year, $112.9 million extension if he wanted to automatically decline his $52.4 million player option in 2025-26. The latter would not be able to extend beyond four years due to the over-38 rule, thus there’s a world where he doesn’t sign one this offseason and pushes it to the next to get three brand new years.
All that said, Butler’s extension is a puzzle the Heat will have to solve. Adebayo will get his money–he’s the captain of the franchise.
What’s the opportunity cost of giving $50-55+ million per to Butler if you’re trying to contend for a title? We know the new TV deal in a couple of years will flood the NBA with more money than it could handle (hello, expansion), which could help the cap stick to 10 percent year-to-year raises (it can’t exceed that, per the new CBA). But how will that handicap Miami’s future?
Nobody in the NBA–heck, nobody in sports–manipulates the cap better than Elisburg, and Butler’s done everything to earn one last monster bag. Remember when Miami acquired him in a sign-and-trade with no cap space?!? Good times!
Here’s the percentage of the cap that both players would hypothetically take up with new max extensions:
- 2023-24: 57.19 percent
- 2024-25: 59.31
- 2025-26: 58.92 (first year of new Butler extension; assuming PO opt-out)
- 2026-27: 64.4 (first year of Bam extension)
Perhaps this would be a better question to ask in subsequent years, but in a world where the second apron becomes more punitive, how do you build a championship-contending roster? Who sacrifices, and where? Do you avoid the second apron entirely or begrudgingly cross it?
With all of this, you also have to factor in Butler’s inevitable decline (father time = undefeated) in addition to any pieces they subsequently acquire this offseason and in future seasons. That second apron is evil, but handicapping your roster with aging (super)stars without many (if any) outs and no feasible way to build a contending roster around Adebayo may also be evil-er.
I don’t think there’s any way they won’t extend both within the next two years–but the possible ripple effects intrigue me. I trust Elisburg’s craftiness more than anyone’s, however!
8.) Do the Heat have any draft picks? If so, what are they?
As I highlighted above, the Miami Heat have two picks available: No. 15 (first round) and No. 43 (second round).
The Heat could parlay any one of those picks into a player or more assets in the future on draft night. I went into 24 potential NBA Draft candidates in the NCAA Tournament in mid-March, but others worth considering at No. 15 are: Providence’s Devin Carter–the son of former 13-year NBA veteran and Heat player, Anthony Carter–USC’s Isaiah Collier, Indiana’s Kel’el Ware, G-League Ignite’s Ron Holland and Tyler Smith and Cal’s Jaylon Tyson.
It’s a mystery whether or not the Heat keep their aforementioned selection(s) or not. We won’t know more until the offseason builds. Even in what’s perceived to be a below-average class (we won’t actually know until 3-4 years down the line), the best organizations find and develop players more often than not.
The Heat is one of those organizations: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez and Nikola Jovic are all draft hits. Josh Richardson in the second round (eventually parlayed into Butler) was a hit. I don’t even have to bring up all the undraftees who have flourished in Miami.
If it keeps its pick(s), will the Heat find another “diamond in the rough?” Only time will tell….
9.) Can the Heat trade their draft picks?
The Miami Heat can only essentially trade their 2030 pick until draft night because of their longstanding protections on their 2025 first-rounder.
Heat insider Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald recently wrote a column on this, so please go check that out! But the Heat’s 2025 pick–currently owned by Oklahoma City–is lottery protected that will get pushed to 2026 if the Heat don’t make the postseason. If that box is checked, Miami’s 2027 first-rounder it traded to Rozier will roll over to 2028–thus preventing the Heat from trading its 2029 first-rounder due to the Stepien rule.
The only caveat is if the Heat tells Oklahoma City and Charlotte that it could keep those picks, but the obstacles (compensation) to clear those hurdles is unknown.
10.) Whose future does the Heat prioritize?
This is a loaded question, but the Heat has to seriously ask who they decide to prioritize this offseason when it comes to roster-building: Jimmy Butler, who will be turning 35-years-old, or some combination of Bam Adebayo/Nikola Jovic/Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The best of both worlds has been what the Heat’s done, but Butler is reaching the latter portion of his career and just suffered an MCL sprain after multiple lower-body injuries over the last calendar year … those add up when you have 30,000 minutes logged in your career.
Butler likely can’t be the only priority. Perhaps there is a player–or players–who become available to help bridge that gap. At some point, Riley and Elisburg must pick a direction. Will it go after a player to better fit Butler’s timeline or will it make a conscious decision to build around Adebayo, Jovic and/or Jaquez and make moves that don’t stunt their growth?
11.) Who’s the next big fish that becomes available?
Are we going to do the Donovan Mitchell circus again? Will Cleveland flame out and make him available? Will he demand a trade? Do the Heat have enough assets (eek!) to complete a Mitchell trade before another team swipes him? Would it take a third team? If not him, then who else? A lot must be answered!
12.) What players could it trade?
The only players who are deemed untouchable are Adebayo and Butler–in that order.
It’s worth contextualizing the “trade value” of Rozier and Robinson, hypothetically, given their recent injuries. We’ve seen previous Heat “builds” last no longer than 5-6 years, and Tyler Herro did not help himself against Boston–a really poor matchup for him. Could he be the domino to fall to shake up the snow globe?
Perhaps the biggest question is: Do Jovic and Jaquez get thrown in the mix if the Heat are seeking a star talent? Jovic is still 20-years-old, making considerable strides to boast two-way potential while draining 40 percent of his 3s; Jaquez, a seasoned rookie, is a facsimile to Butler and still averaged 11.8 points on 57.4 percent true shooting despite battling a midseason groin injury and hitting the proverbial “rookie wall.”
Both players were two positive developments of this god-forsaken season, but you have to give something to get something … and Miami doesn’t have many desirable assets outside of them.
13.) How can the Heat prevent themselves from having to use 35 different starting lineups again?
The Miami Heat had a team-record 35 starting lineups this season and were the 10th-most injured team in the NBA this season. We still did not get a real glimpse at this team pre- or post-Rozier trade. Injuries happen in sports all the time–it’s a part of sports; there’s no move you can make or player that you could acquire to guarantee no injuries.
But are there ways to mitigate the risk of injury? Does there need to possibly modify training methods … or modify how they recover? I’m not a trainer, sports scientist or doctor, nor am I in the building. But this has been a longstanding issue–with 2023-24 being the peak in the iceberg.
Whether these injuries are purely unlucky or more closely related to soft-tissue injuries, these questions need to be asked–and answered.
(Can they also publicly disclose injuries and their timelines better … please? It’s a simple ask!)
14.) How will 2023-24 change how it approaches the regular season, if at all?
Too many times throughout the 2023-24 season did the Heat essentially vomit on themselves. It was not for a lack of trying, but the team’s disposition wasn’t always there; their collective energy and attention-to-detail over the full 82-game slate didn’t reach expectations, and it ultimately got got.
Yes, they advanced past the play-in, but their best player suffered yet another freak knee injury. Miami was one game removed from the No. 5 seed, two games from the No. 4 seed, three games from the No. 3 seed and only four (!!!) from the No. 2 seed.
What if they don’t lose to Memphis–who had nine players injured–Washington or Toronto? What if they don’t fumble second-half leads to Dallas and Oklahoma City on the road? What if they don’t blow leads to Philadelphia twice don’t the stretch, or lose to Indiana by two? What if their best player actually looked like their best player during the regular season?
You could pick apart any team’s losses during an 82-game season, but the Heat came up shy in the spotlight more often than not. There were essentially more “what-ifs” than wins–ones that Miami will have a long offseason to ponder … ones that potentially sent it home much quicker than it would’ve desired.
15.) Can it please learn how to properly run a fastbreak (consistently)?
I know, I know, this isn’t directly tailored to the offseason. But the 2023-24 Miami Heat cracked the top-2 of worst transition offenses these pair of eyes have ever seen … and it’s not No. 2.
Just discovered this: Miami had the 8th-worst offensive rating on transition possessions, per @cleantheglass.
No chance that there were seven teams worse than Miami in transition … I refuse to believe it.@5ReasonsSports @hothothoops #HEATCulture pic.twitter.com/fXmaosJVK1
— Matt Hanifan (@mph_824_) April 24, 2024
I didn’t include everything. But what are the questions you have for the Miami Heat heading into the 2024 offseason? Let us know in the comments!
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I just hope they don’t give Butler, who can’t stay healthy a max deal. It’s tough to see the Heat, who love to pride themselves on being the toughest best conditioned and talk about Heat culture, having to battle through the playoff play in, to get in to the playoffs. It’s tough especially when we have one of the highest payroll. It’s time to move on from Butler and Herro.
UD is proposing Miami go in this direction this offseason.
While on the ESPN program “First Take” this week, 20-year Miami vet Udonis Haslem explained why he thinks the 6’9″ big man could benefit from a positional move.
“He can guard all five positions but he would have even more of a matchup at the 4 position where we can post him up and do different things with him,” Haslem said. “Go for a center and possibly another scoring guard.”
Bam is versatile defender, if he plays some minutes on PF position no problems on defense, but on offense stretch center is needed to pair with him.
Btw, with 2nd round pick I would consider another Serbian player Nikola Djurisic, he could be hidden gem in this draft.
To start with, congratulations to the Heat team for a successful 2024 campaign season, My bar for the team this season was getting out of he play in tournament. The best chance I gave them was been knocked off at the semis. Before low are a few more things to celebrate.
Having gotten the pleasantries out of the way. The Heat needs to avoid the mistakes of this season.
…”Heat Culture is reaching a crossroads. According to the Miami Herald, Jimmy Butler is seeking a contract extension this summer and it sounds like the Miami Heat are going to have to make a decision about the future of the franchise. Extend Butler or prepare for the next phase, whatever that may be.
Butler is the consummate Miami Heat player, but he turns 35 later this year. He missed 22 regular season games this season and appeared in more Fall Out Boy videos than playoff games. It’s never been a problem that he misses a big chunk of the regular season because he’s been such a great competitor in the postseason. Despite having a reputation for being an iron man under Tom Thibodeau during his early days, he’s only played 70 games in a season twice in his entire career and hasn’t appeared in more than 65 games since 2017 when he was still in Chicago.”…
https://www.si.com/nba/2024/05/02/miami-heat-jimmy-butler-next-contract
Even though I love Jimmy I’ve slowly come to the conclusion that the Heat might be better off trying to move him this off-season considering the cost vs reward of retaining him for the next few years.
They are a few championship contending teams and a few fairly young teams that would like to fast track their ability to contend, that would give the Heat a decent return for Jimmy. Something along the lines of an expiring contract (or 2), a young player with upside and multiple draft picks.
I appreciate Jimmy for what he has done for the Heat since he came here but it’s probably time to move in a different direction.
I would also like to see the Heat offer up Herro to the Orlando Magic for Jonathan Isaac and Joe Ingles.
Orlando needs shooting, ball handling and more playoff experience and Herro fits the bill, plus he’s young with plenty of upside still and meshes with their timeline.
It’s time to stop pursuing past their prime offensive whales with out sized contracts.
Just double down on defense instead and get a young and still developing defensive monster like Isaac to play next to Bam for years to come.
They’re both the same age and they would constitute the best defensive frontline in the nba bar-none.
Can you imagine teams trying to score on that frontline?
This move also comes with the added bonus of making the team a lot bigger by moving young starters Jovic and Jaquez down one position.
The Heat would no longer be a poor rim protecting and rebounding team that gets pushed around in the paint and has to put 2 on the ball because of so many poor defensive mismatches.
They would have the size to at least match up defensively with teams like Minnesota, Denver, Boston, NY etc.
The Heat no longer have to wear Bam out by overburdening him defensively.
I expect Love, Brayant and probably Richardson to exercise their options. So I would let Caleb and Patty Mills walk and try to move Duncan (With Cole Swider waiting in the wings to take his place) for an expiring and a second rounder (if you can get it) or just plain out right cap space and look to resign Highsmith and Delon Wright who both have proven to be a very good role players and should come relatively cheap.
With these off-season moves, by the end of season 24-25 the Heat would have multiple expiring contracts and plenty of good young players and picks to look forward to.
Good ideas. There are a lot of ways for Miami to go if they are able to trade Butler, Herro and Duncan and certain players opt out of their contracts.Young talent, picks and maybe one very good player are very possible.
The last five years have been fun, but it’s time to move on or be left behind. There are plenty of NBA players who would love to play for the Heat, be coached by Spo and be part of Heat Culture. It’s time for Riley to work his magic…the sooner the better. Who knows, with a higher draft pick in trade, Miami might even be able to nab one of the top centers in the draft.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/prospect-rankings/centers/
Jimmy isn’t going anywhere. I see no scenario where Pat and Spo trade him. No idea what they will do, but I really hope they keep the draft picks and hit on it. This team needs more explosive youth. It will be fun to follow. Let’s see what the future holds for this team. I hope it’s bouncing Boston out next year. 😉
Signing Jimmy sets this franchise back years, y’all thought them James Johnson and Dion waiters contract were bad wait til they sign jimmy, it’s that some of you don’t want to trade him so you make up excuses (no teams gonna want him/his contract/pat not gonna trade him/he’s not going nowhere etc etc. I guess y’all think they gonna be bad without him meanwhile they were bad with him especially this year. Also read that this year against top 10 defenses he didn’t do nothing. Trade him get younger go from there, no need to let an injury prone part time player hold this franchise hostage he’s not dwade and damn sure not lebron. Thanks for everything but this is business
Very good comment and impassioned because it matters so much. It will not be unlike having Kyle, who immediately upon signing didn’t play for a significant amount of time for “personal reasons.” And then when he played, he was usually awful. He still stinks for the Sixers. Which is important to note because there will always be foolish takers for over the hill former stars, like we almost did with Dame. Jimmy isn’t as done as Kyle, but he very much has an analogous amount left to Dame, which is some value, but not the contracts worth.
I agree. See my comment on the new post.
Sorry 2, an explosive “run & gun” youth oriented team will not mesh well with an aging, slow down, kill the clock, half-court player like Butler. It’s time to turn the page and quit holding on to yesterday’s pipe dreams.
Again people look at these young teams and young legs in the playoffs and say. Yeah we need an aging part time player to compete with those young guys………..HUH?
im watching embid on one leg giving his all and terry has a sore neck really pls explain his injury heat culture
Once again, you have no clue whatsoever about his condition or if playing might have caused further injury. He’s under contract for 2 more years. If his condition worsened and kept him out for all or part of next season, you, again, would be the biggest complainer. Bottom line is we won’t know until we know.
Plus, it would not have made a bit of difference without the team fully healthy. Boston was healthy (until last game) with top 2 offense and defense in league.
And maybe, in my opinion as well as prognosticators, even fully healthy we don’t beat the Celtics. Give them a better fight yes. Even though we did win that one game, they slaughtered us in four others. And, even when reasonably healthy down the stretch, we lost a bunch of must win games. We will never know, but it probably would have been better to play a lesser team in the first round.
Agree with the gang here…great article. It seems Heat in the muck of navigating next season specifically with the Butler issue. Pay him or trade him. Age and injuries are the risk. As ive always said…trust the godfather. Or keep a stock of tomatoes for future use.
Great article.
Really was a great article, but a little rosy eyed in its perspective.
To me, it is a no brainer Jimmy has to go before he loses all value. His availability has been proven to be not what it was, not enough to justify keeping him. And he already became slightly limited in his play versus what he used to be, I thought that was obvious. And yet, he can still bring in a lot from that team that just needs one more high quality piece. Just have to do a better job with the picks we get, probably two firsts, and maybe a serviceable player.
Ty is a harder choice. It depends on who you keep. I have been an advocate of getting rid of at least three of the four of Love, Duncan, Ty, and Jovic. I don’t mind keeping Dunc or Ty, but just one. I would keep Dunc over Ty as Ty will bring in more, even if it’s only two seconds. I am no medical doctor ( just a dentist) but I don’t think Dunc’s issues are career ending.
I would like to keep him and JJJ, and have no other white players. There, I said it. You can have a few white players playing big minutes, but only two or three, no more. Look around the league. It’s the most highly competitive sport for roster spots in the world. 99% of black players aren’t good enough and it’s very rare to find players with these skills from all over the world. Ty is a rare athlete, as good as some of the best black guards who ever played, but he lacks strength and gives up effectiveness on defense, even more so than Dunc. That is the other reason to keep Dunc.
Love is washed up, move on from him or put him way down the bench for the questionable quality of veteran leadership, which means little to me. Just make him a twelfth man, I don’t care how you justify it.
JJJ has the body type, ability, and that sense to be in the right place, I think we found something in him if he can stay healthy.
I don’t see the same with Jovic. Should be almost a certainty that he will be a bust. He has the wrong skills, and the wrong body type, get real and cut bait with him. He may bring us a pick on potential until he goes thru a Yurt like devaluing of his skills on a roster.
Got to hope Terry recovers, it’s taking a chance, but we have no choice as we need him. Caleb is gone more on his volition, we couldn’t keep him if we wanted too.
I have been right about everything I said all year. Maybe no one else notices, but it is true, absolutely true. I know no one will listen to me anyway, but that’s too bad because we had Jimmy in his prime and didn’t take advantage. The biggest mistake was Kyle. If we never got involved with him, got better value with his salary, we would have won it all.
I am nothing if not honest. Sorry for tooting my horn as it’s generally not my style. Best to everyone on the coming year.
great article 100% correct 30.
You were a pessimist from the beginning of the season, and final result is what you predicted, that much is true, but I cant agree with most you said, especially about the white players.
Two of the best players in the world are white, and none of them is an athlete in traditional sense. Both are very skilled and incredibly smart, both having killing instinct playing basketball.
Tyler is not on that level, and this playoff proved, that he needs to bulk up rapidly to at least play some defence. He is the same type as Goran was, and Goran was at least close to be an average defender in his best years, so its possible for Tyler to become something like that.
He is still young, Heat wont get much for him, so he should stay, till a better player wont be available.
But ok, he was a disappointment in this series. Jovic was not, actually, in my opinion he was the only bright point besides Bam. He become a good, if not great defender, good rebounder, solid shooter, finisher and playmaker, at only 20. He is better then 90 % of his peers, black or white.
I m not sure what will team looks next year. I dont care, if will be white, black, yellow or green, I just want the team to play hard and, if possible, beautiful and successful basketball.
I always enjoy your contributions to this thread. It is remarkable that two of the five best players in the world are from the Balkans region. If you can play, you can play. And it is not lost on me that Nico hearkens from the same area. I am also sorry for taking on the subject of race in the nba so head on. I really prefer not to. But, we do talk about it constantly on these threads, only using euphemisms like “two way player.” Look at the best teams, a few are almost all black (along with some very bad teams too) with rare talents like Reaves, Markannen, BLopez, Sabonis, FWagner, and Porzingas amongst the best white players. But the list is short, and mostly foreign. The better teams mostly seem to have a roster sprinkled with two or three white players (or at least one or two of the many half black players, which is another interesting subject). And many of them do not see starter minutes. I don’t think anyone plans it that way, but that is how it’s been coming out as the nba becomes more and more international and it has been fairly constant now for at least twenty years if not more. Seldom do winning teams have more whites, but a few notable successes have been the Bird Boston years and our own 2020 and 2023 Heat. I understand why Pat drafted like he did as mid teen level draft picks are iffy anyway, and it is possible to find undervalued white players like JJJ, Ty and Jovic at that level. But, there seems to be a point where the balance gets skewered and it’s hard to win, as unfair as that comment may be. I am sorry for even saying it. But, it’s also apparently, and this is just a reflection of how the other GM’s continually over the years assemble a team, somewhat believed across the nba. I realize this is third rail stuff so forgive me. I only address this once a year. Otherwise, I will just use euphemisms. Thanks for understanding if anyone read this.
And I forgot to mention, I am of the opinion that Goran was a low A player in his prime, two steps up in effectiveness from Ty, who is a solid B+. I doubt Ty ever gets that good.
You don’t know how bad Goran was at Tylers age. We could build a factory out of the bricks he produce in his early days.
Ty is not a rookie anymore. But, he is still improving. But Goran became a really excellent player. There were games in the playoffs where he was our best player in the court in 2020. That’s why it hurt us so bad when he couldn’t play against the Lakers. Ty may get better, but he has a ways to go to match Goran.
I m not afraid to talk about the race, although in some parts of the world (US, for example) this might be a sensitive topic. I m also not a friend of political correctness, things must be described as they are.
I m a Slovenian, I dont have interest in Serbian or players, if they don’t play for my team, so I think I can be fair to asses him. And I think he will be excellent player.
The best white player in history was probably Larry Bird, and you can name 10,20 or 50 black players which were better then him. I also know, that best US players today are black.
But that cant be used as an argument, that the team with several white players cannot be successful, not today. Its not a secret, that black players has better physical predispositions, but basketball is a game of skills today.
And white players, at least international ones, are skilled.
I think US coaches does a big mistake, they prizes physical abilities of players, but neglects other elements of the game, which will probably cost US of being the leading basketball force very soon. I believe, if US coaches does a better job regarding that, more white US players would play basketball at the highest level.
About two way white players, we have plenty here, but they dont get a chance play at NBA level. Players, coming in the NBA from here, are not such players, their talents are different. That’s the reason, that you will not find many two way international players in NBA.
About Heat white players, Dunc has his place in NBA, no doubt about it. He makes at least one thing at remarkable level, when he is healthy and in shape. Love s problem is age, he was great player in his prime. And Tyler (is he white?) is also a great player, but he is to weak to play defence on high level.
I like your posts too, just that I m sometimes bothered with your pessimism (because I m an optimist by nature). Otherwise, I have no problems with anything you said.
Yes, I try to curb my tendency to not believe my team is good until they are so good it is unquestionable. I guess it does come thru in my comments. But, once a team is really good, I am nothing more than a cheerleader. I think my hockey team, the Florida Panthers, is a great team and I shower those players with praise.
Anyway, yes you said some things I only danced around. I feel uncomfortable talking anymore on the subject except to say I try to be very fair in my evaluation of all players, and give both black and white players respect and appreciation for the immense talent that it took to reach the pinnacle of a sport with only twelve roster spots.
Fascinating, and I did not say this, but maybe it did come thru in my comments, but I did assume you were on the Jovic bandwagon in part due to some kind of ethnic affinity and now I see that was not the case. I will say, Jovic somehow is not prototypical of the guys from Europe who make it, being long and a little lean. But, again, his foot speed surprised me, I see him make quick short steps to get back when the opposition tries to go around him and maybe they give up and go to another option more readily because of that height he possesses. He has a chance, got to bulk up like Ty did, and on him that could be a difference maker. He is going to have to get comfortable getting real physical, although his level of finesse is probably already enough. We shall see.
Yes, lets leave it here. Jovic is not a prototypical, but none of good players from Europe is, like _Jokic, Luka, Wemby. This can be even an advantage.
I agree with you about Jovic. As noted above, he provided glimpses into how he can develop. He’ll hopefully add more bulk this offseason and continue to hone his skills. If he never is more than a solid rotation player, then the team did a great job getting him at 27.
Anybody that says they were right about everything is wrong. You or I or anyone else here is right sometimes and wrong others. Here is my repost to you from a previous thread:
In the past, hfl has accused you of waffling, so I guess it’s my turn, though you know we agree on plenty of issues. After game 2, you were gushing how remarkable the win was and gave a mea culpa for doubting. The last 2 games basically were a microcosm of the inconsistency we’ve seen all season. Of course, injuries have really affected us.
I wish you would specifically say what those terrible moves were over the last 3 years and what alternatives there were while keeping the salary cap and availability of certain players in mind. I was staunchly against the Lowry contract (not Lowry himself necessarily), and I didn’t like the Duncan contract from the start. The Herro contract positions him where some players making less are better, but other players making more or similar are worse (like Hayward or Cam Johnson). So the contract is not really out of line.
We agree on Jaquez, who will continue to get better. But we disagree on Jovic. He’s in his first true year, has size, defends well, gets up the floor quickly, and despite some sloppiness to be expected from a 20 year old, has passing and shooting ability. And he’s on a rookie contract. Definitely not a player that you look to get rid of. If you look at that draft, there are at least 10 players chosen before him that are not as good.
I think, with some astute moves, the team will be fine and exciting next season and beyond. However, knowing Riley desperately wants that one last ring, he may go in the other direction. There’s already talk about Durant.
I got caught up in the emotion of the end of the season and maybe the end of some dreams. Yes, I have been right all along, we always needed more, we never had enough. Finally we got someone who moved the needle a little. But, we needed that other player the big four or five. And,,even though we never had Jimmy and Terry for the playoffs, we did have them down the stretch and we were just a little better than average. Truth was, even if healthy we likely were not getting past the Celtics. Healthy, we lose 4-2, just my opinion. We still needed that one more player.
I know I have been wrong about some issues, plenty of them. But, my major thrust, that this was Jimmy’s last effective year and he needed more, I was spot on.
And I, and many others here, totally agree with that. At the trade deadline we were looking to upgrade the point guard position. But the much bigger priority was to upgrade the pf/c position. Either get a pf who could make 3s and rebound or get a c who could guard the paint while Bam roamed and who could post up effectively. Neither happened unfortunately.
Dude. Why do you consider Jaquez white and someone who is bi-racial like Caleb or Steph or LaMello, or Klay or Devin, or Blake, etc. black? By the way, Isaiah Hartenstein’s father is half black and his mother is white. What does that make him?
I bring this all up because, like Jaquez, I am half white and half Mexican-American. Using your logic, I, (like Jaquez), am white. FYI, I have never considered myself or tried to pass myself off as “White.” I grew up in a Latino culture and have always identified myself as Latino. I have also never allowed others to put a label on me. The same goes for Caribbean Islanders in Spanish speaking countries. Their ethnicity is a fusion of African, Indigenous, European and Asian bloods. However, if asked, most would consider themselves Hispanics, not blacks, whites or other.
By opening the door to talk about your view of inferior races in basketball, by default, you are including not only whites, but Asian/Pacific Islanders/Non-Black Hispanics, and any other group that is not black or multi-racial black that is not currently well represented in the NBA. By doing this, and by placing quotas/limitations on whites, you open the door for others to discuss their views on what they perceive to be inferior races in other areas of society, such as education, science, medicine, fine art, classical music, technology, etc.
Do you really want to go there? I, for one, don’t.
I know It’s a tough conversation and I meant no harm to anyone. I always wish to avoid talking about this because both times I felt a little uneasy after as I do now. I did make one reference to half black/white players in what I wrote but you are right, it is an oversimplification. And yet, these thoughts I hopefully discussed with reasonable respect, are on everyone’s mind, maybe not the elephant in the room, but part of the decor. In an ideal world, evaluations should be color blind, and they pretty much are. And that is why the league looks like it does and it also is why the Miami Heat’s being different is noticeable. I hope this answers you as I did not mean to say anything unkind.
Cool. No harm…no foul. Cultural sensitivity is a big deal with me.
Great. It matters to me too. I’m watching Indy end the Bucks season, a team, the Bucks, that we can relate to. The league is changing and somehow maybe Indy is one of the teams that reflects those changes.
Same with Orlando, OKC and Minnesota.
I see you as a respected member of HHH, even when we disagree on an issue. I suspect others feel the same.
Thanks, good to be part of a great group, even though we don’t hear much from some, like Jnicho, who really contributed a lot of wisdom in the past.
2024-2025 worse case scenario…
Miami keeps Butler and extends his contract for 3 years @ $150M+Martin opts in or is given a multi-year extensionMiami keeps Herro and Duncan,Bryant opts in,Miami trades Jovic and Jaquez,Love and JRich opt outMiami does not re-sign Highsmith, Wright, ORob or G Leaguers.Miami blows draft picks
2024-2025 best case scenario…
Butler is traded for younger top 20 player (Mitchell, Siakim?) or package of young players and draft picks (Houston, OKC, San Antonio, Utah, etc.).Martin opts out or is signed & tradedHerro is traded for frontcourt starter (Collins, Kuzma, DeRozan?)Duncan is traded for rotation player and second round pickJovic and Jaquez are not tradedLove and JRich opt inHighsmith, Wright, ORob and G Leguers are re-signed for minimumMiami makes shrewd draft picks and gets starter (preferably an NBA ready C*) and a solid rotation player with tons of upside.
(I should be charging Pat a consultant fee for this shit).
GO HEAT!!!
*P.S. 15th Pick – Zach Edey, Purdue, Senior
HEIGHT 7’3″
WEIGHT 306
AGE 22.1
WINGSPAN 7’11”
By putting Edey next to a rim protector like Bam Adebayo, Edey could provide the beef inside, and Adebayo would provide two-way versatility. The fact that Bam has begun to shoot 3s (and has made just under half of them since the break) indicates that he could continue improving in that area. An interior force like Edey might be a perfect balance.
I like your ideas, always have. We see a lot of things similarly. This next step is very important and has everything to do with how soon we become competitive again. I sure hope they go with something along the lines of your best case scenario. Not sure I would go with Edey though. I would like a safer pick. He will be an nba player, but there have been others like him over the years, who only became average to good ones, not even very good players. One I seem to remember was on Utah, and he was 7’4”.
I think Sunman have the right idea that Heat need a good rim protector to pair up with Bam. With a good rim protector, Bam is free to roam and guard the best player with the possibility that the player will also hesitate to drive to the rim limiting his option but in today’s nba, that rim protector should also be mobile to close out the spot up 3s and also mobile to staying on hip of players that attack the close out. The question now is how good Edey’s defense outside the rim and can he hold his own guarding 1 and 2
What do yo guys think of Tristan Da Silva? Plays like a less polish franz wagner. Very versatile defender that i think can guard 1 to 4 and can space the floor from the outside. Can play a wide range of roles to contribute winning plays.have an elite ability to find oppurtunities off of cuts and move off ball.
I want a player who is big enough to compete with the monsters inside that Bam is too small to defend or shoot over. If there is a big body center in the draft who is mobile enough to defend the paint and 3 point line, I’m all for drafting him.
valacounis lin(sac) mitch(hurt alot)