2024 NBA Draft: Reasons for (and against) Miami Heat keeping No. 15 pick

The 2024 NBA Draft is only 10 days away! The Miami Heat own the No. 15 and 43 picks, their first time owning two picks since the 2019 draft, when they selected Tyler Herro and KZ Okpala.

There’s plenty of consternation on whether or not Miami should keep their first-round selection or not. Let’s evaluate reasons for–and against–doing just that.

Let’s hop into it!

Reasons For Keeping No. 15:

New CBA incentivizes team-building through draft:

The introduction of the onerous second apron throws a wrench on team-building structure. And the Heat, who have made the play-in the last two seasons, is not in the most favorable position.

If you factor in Tyler Herro’s $2.5 million unlikely bonus–a requirement for cap calculations–and the No. 15 pick, the Heat is on the brink of becoming a second-apron team. Those penalties become even more punitive this upcoming season and beyond, limiting team-building flexibility options they would have available to them should they reach that territory.

Unless you’re the Boston Celtics–who are well past the second apron with three max players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday), including two young, homegrown stars in Brown and Tatum–it’s going to be difficult for teams to team build with more than two max players. Of course, you need stars plus complementary size, depth and skillsets littered throughout the roster–plus some (injury) luck–to have a reasonable chance at competing for a title.

But the new CBA is going to incentivize teams to build through the draft with cheap, cost-controlled contracts. There’s no guarantee that Miami will have any of its first-round draft picks until 2029 with two lottery-protected picks owed to Oklahoma City in 2025 (could convey as an unprotected 2026) and Charlotte in 2027 (could convey in 2028); it will also have a limited amount of second-round picks through 2030, too.

The Heat is as good as any team and finding and developing undrafted talent, but utilizing their first-round picks to round out its roster (and potentially parlay into a star) could be crucial as they transition out of the Jimmy Butler era. Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez were two picks off to very promising starts with the organization.

Even with the top being flat, the Heat could be in a golden area to strike:

It’s not a secret.

We won’t truly know how the top of the 2024 NBA Draft stacks up relative to other draft classes until at least 3-4 years from now, but the top of this draft is considered “flat.” There isn’t a huge discrepancy between each of the top prospects at the top nor a big gap between the top tier and the ensuing tier. Thus, there’s the possibility that there is more parity at the top of the draft.

That’s where the Heat’s pick comes into play: Anywhere between No. 6 and 20-ish could be a real sweep spot to take advantage of the board. There may not be any future All-Stars, but the middle of this draft should be filled with multiple quality role players who could make an immediate impact, which could greatly benefit Miami, who have routinely dominated the middle of the draft in recent memory.

Assuming there is more parity than normal, it could lead to multiple consensus top-10 prospects dropping near its range as well. In that case, it could lead teams to trade up to nab “their guy,” thus changing the overall complexion of the board.

Now, every team’s board is different; just because the “consensus” values a player in the top-10 doesn’t mean the Heat–or any other organization–will. We just saw the Heat draft Jaime Jaquez (a fringe top-30 consensus player), one of the most productive rookies, and passed on Cam Whitmore, regarded by many as a top-5 player. Organizations get to work out these players, interview them and become familiar with their backgrounds–in addition to evaluating their skill set on film. There’s more nuance to just watching film.

We won’t truly know until draft night, but it could peel open an opportunity for Miami to strike and secure legitimate value at No. 15.

Reasons Against Keeping No. 15:

You want a (super)star? Trading No. 15 may be required.

I don’t have to tell you that the Heat will “star hunt.” They do it practically every offseason.

One of the most difficult things is acquiring stars. It’s even harder when you have a limited asset stash–like the Heat do.

It remains unclear whether or not Donovan Mitchell will sign the four-year, $209 million extension he will be eligible for this summer; we also don’t know if the Atlanta Hawks will make Trae Young available and what that potential cost looks like. Could there be other stars made available at an affordable price? History says yes, but whether or not the Heat–who have a limited stash of assets–can strike when the iron’s hot is a different story.

Tyler Herro’s value isn’t quite what it once was. I’m also curious what league executives believe Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson’s potential trade value looks like because of their neck and back injuries. Miami may have to trade at least one of Jaquez or Jovic if any of these become a bidding war. It could lead to it trading perhaps both plus possibly trading the No. 15 pick to acquire a star.

What if the Heat want to trade back … or even up?

As I mentioned above, there’s potential for parody in the lottery.

We obviously don’t know what their board looks like. Though should multiple prospects they like outside the lottery, could the Heat potentially trade out of No. 15 if, say, a team wants to trade up to acquire their guy? They would have to proceed with caution because, depending on how far they trade back, who knows what teams behind them would pick and how it would affect their board.

But trading back allows the Heat to secure additional assets–whether it be a future first, current or future second or possibly a (fringe) rotation player. They haven’t recently moved back, but this could be a viable opportunity depending on the board falls with the top being flat.

Conversely, Miami could be willing to trade up. Though for a few of the reasons mentioned above, there would be very few situations I–yes, me, an individual who’s very unqualified to be in an NBA front office–would trade up.

What would I do? Keep the pick, unless a trade for a star becomes available that you can’t turn down.

Do you think the Heat should keep the No. 15 pick? Let us know in the comments!

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