2024 NBA Draft: Should Heat look to pluck from G-League Ignite at 15?

Based on conventional wisdom, nearly 10 of those prospects could be considered at No. 15, though two of them are from the G-League Ignite–Ron Holland and Tyler Smith–which the Heat have yet to invest in over the team’s four-year tenure. The Ignite, which will not continue beyond 2023-24 due to the NIL landscape and its lack of sustainable development, was an unmitigated disaster last season.

But should that prevent the Heat from investing in two high-upside G-League talents if they fell to No. 15? Let’s explore.

Case For Ron Holland:

Holland, who will turn 19-years-old on July 7, is the more polarizing prospect of the two players.

The 6-foot-8 wing was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 recruiting class that Isaiah Collier, Ja’Kobe Walter, Justin Edwards, Stephon Castle, Rob Dillingham and Jared McCain, among others, before turning pro. And was once regarded as a top prospect in this class.

But he’s slowly, but surely dropped down boards throughout the pre-draft process.

Holland is an elite-level athlete and one of the springiest wings in this class with a 30-inch standing vertical and a 38-inch max vertical. He’s a remarkable threat in transition and is very capable at getting the rim in the halfcourt with a solid handle and elite-level burst.

I thought Holland played bigger than his 197-pound frame suggested when getting downhill; if he got an angle on you or blew by you, have fun trying to stop the rest. I also thought he was good defensively at the point-of-attack with good dexterity, though he did tend to get bit on screens and play too high.

Two of Holland’s biggest fatal flaws were his shooting and decision-making. He shot just 23.7 percent from deep in 29 combined games and 72.8 percent from the free-throw line. Holland wasn’t consistent with his lower half or release and he didn’t always shoot in rhythm, which hurt him. He was also a poor decision-maker on ball at times, though he was an 18-year-old being one of the top creators against grown men in his first professional season. That could come with time.

In a Heat context, Holland wouldn’t help with Miami’s spacing troubles. But his sheer athleticism/fluidity, rim pressure and point-of-attack upside–three things it sorely lacks–makes him an intriguing prospect at No. 15 if he’s there for the taking.

Case For Tyler Smith:

Tyler Smith would fit a more positional need with the Heat in the frontcourt.

The 6-foot-10 big came off the bench behind Izan Almansa (who took his name out of the draft pool) throughout last season after spending two seasons with the Overtime Elite. He’s young and he’s got multiple seasons of professional basketball under his belt.

He’s got an intriguing blend of size and shooting; he shot 36.0 percent from deep on a combined 43 games with Ignite last year. He’s got a very smooth left-handed shooting stroke that looked very repeatable and on balance in his lower half.

Though Smith also was a reliable rim-runner and vertical spacer–which translated to him earning a 32-inch standing vert and a 38-inch max vert at the combine, similarly to Holland. He can pick-and-roll with fluid movements, but can also pick-and-pop. He flashed in-between touch in the post, even though that was not a very featured part of his game.

He’s got to build up his core strength; he’s thin and didn’t play through contact all that well, which could limit his role/impact on both ends of the floor at the start of his NBA career. But what better organization to help get you stronger than the Miami Heat? Did anyone see what they did to Nikola Jovic in just nine months?

He was a good shot-blocker, but was not a great defender with Ignite. With Miami, he could be hidden in zone, but there were times when he had mental lapses defensively–which could be improved with time.

There’s more that goes into selecting a player than just watching the film. That said, I think both Smith and Holland have very intriguing tools with differing skill sets that the Heat should consider.

Miami has yet to invest in a player from the G-League Ignite. A few notable prospects from the squad that were drafted over the last three seasons were Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels, MarJon Beauchamp, Jaden Hardy, Scoot Henderson and Leonard Miller–not all of which were in the Heat’s range.

There’s also an inherent risk with selecting players from an organization that hasn’t developed young players well. Though not all prospects are the same nor is all growth linear. The best organizations find talent more often than not at any point in the draft.

As I said when I went over the pros and cons of keeping the No. 15 pick, there could be some serious parody at the top of the draft, thus leading to prospects falling out of the top-5/10 that may have been viewed in that range. Holland has been mocked in that range way more than Smith has, but it’s unpredictable what will happen with both players–and, frankly, the Heat–as Wednesday’s first round approaches.

The organization will have a plan for whomever they pick, and this could be the year where they may strongly consider dipping into a pipeline they’ve had yet to pluck from.

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