(Photo via Getty Images)
All of Heat Nation is patiently waiting for the start of a potential upcoming redemption 2025-26 season. Team captain Bam Adebayo and newly acquired Miami Heat guard Norman Powell each expressed optimism to get things started recently.
There’s plenty to be excited about, and it didn’t take much.
The only thing Heat fans wanted to see was any sort of change and avoid the dreaded “run it back” roster method. Pat Riley and company may have failed to land Kevin Durant earlier this summer, but Powell’s addition came at a discounted price and still helps strengthen this core in many ways.
His improved scoring over the years adds an extra offensive boost. For the Heat, who have been ranked in the bottom half of offensive efficiency for years now, Powell’s acquisition should pay instant dividends.
However, betting sites are already counting Miami out— most projecting them to have a 37.5 over/under win total. After finishing with a shaky 37-45 record and securing the 8th seed out of the play-in last season, the betting outlets don’t see Powell raising the Heat’s ceiling at all.
Despite the projections, several national media voices are doubling down on taking the over on the Heat heading into the new campaign.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Tim Bontemps and Tim MacMahon were all in agreement on the Heat’s over
“I don’t like betting on the Heat to be a losing team… I think Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference; They won’t have the Jimmy saga… Obviously, I don’t have to talk about Spo’s credentials. I’m going to take the over here.”
— Tim MacMahon on Miami’s projected 37.5 over/under win total (via The Hoop Collective)
There’s been plenty more comments predicting improvement for Miami around the media.
Despite trending positivity towards the Heat’s changes from the media after the Powell trade, there’s still always going to be skepticism. This is a team that has not had any real regular season success since the 2021-22 campaign, limping to the play-in tournament in three consecutive seasons.
Jimmy Butler isn’t around to save them anymore come postseason time. Although, a full season separated from his contract and trade drama should also bring benefits for the team’s immediate future.
Tim Legler of ESPN is one of the very few mainstream media voices that aren’t ready to buy-in towards any quick Heat turnaround next season.
“(The Heat) added Norman Powell so you think 38.5 wins should do it but I just don’t know,” Legler said via All City NBA Podcast. “I’m a little bored with the Heat. If you’re saying .500 or better that means they’re relevant in the East. I’m not sure they will be, so I’m going under.”
At the end of the day, Miami on paper is undoubtedly better today than they were just a few months ago. A drama-free locker room, internal growth and development from players, and Powell’s addition should all play a factor in a bounce back year for the Heat.
What’s your pick for Miami’s projected 37.5 over/under win total? Let us know in the comments!
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If this team thought it could win, it would have traded for Durant. I’m glad to hear journalists that I respect say they think the Heat will have a good season. But I don’t think the front office believes it. I still think we’re midway through a rebuild. Hopefully this team makes a second round playoff run and the young guys build a little trade value
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Thanks. It would be great if Jovic has a breakout year? Like Jaquez, time to for him to sh*t or get off the pot.
Miami lost 15 games last year when leading by double digits. The team also had a record of 14-28 in “clutch games.” The NBA defines “clutch time” as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points.
If Miami can win 1/4 of the games they lost in clutch time (7), and 5 of the games they lost after having double digit leads, they should easily have a 45+ win season. In order to do that, the team needs to stay healthy and add at least two more rotation players, a rotation big (PF/C) and another rotation scorer. It would also help if one or two of the players on rookie contracts (in addition to Ware) step up and become solid/dependable rotation players.
need a ss sun .i know bam and ty are not. maybe powell becomes one down here.or ware becomes wemby jr.w/o ss can only go so far.although kds old i was hoping heat would get him.
I m down with 40 wins, unless the Godfather works some more magic.