Over a long, grueling 82-game season, there will be peaks and valleys for all 82 teams, to varying degrees. For the Miami Heat, it’s been a tale of two starts.
Through the first 21 games, the Heat were off to a world-beating 14-7 start. Simply, they were playing at a breakneck pace with an above-average minus arguably their best offensive player for the first 17 games. Routinely, they were scoring 120, 130 and, on some nights, 140-plus points with relative ease, while also playing the toughest part of their schedule.
However, in the eight games since, they’ve done more than just crash down to Earth, piercing the planet’s foremost layer.
In the eight games since, Miami is just averaging 109.4 points per game (compared to 124.3 beforehand!) with the league’s fifth-worst offensive efficiency (No. 11 beforehand). Is it time to be concerned? Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes reveals it could be the team’s biggest problem.
“In eliminating screens, mandating a breakneck pace and prioritizing a drive-and-cut attack rife with off-ball shifting, it feels like the Heat are entering unexplored territory—or at least checking it out more thoroughly than the Grizzlies did a year ago,” Hughes wrote.
“Tactical shifts like this don’t come around often. The NBA was defined by the pick-and-roll for almost 20 years, and this departure could mark the beginning of a new era.
“Or—and this is where the problem comes in—Miami’s offense might fall completely flat in the playoffs and wind up a footnote in a chapter of NBA history devoted to wild ideas that look ridiculous in hindsight.”
The Miami Heat’s offense has regressed after fast start:
Coming off their third-straight season as a bottom-third unit, change was required this offseason. A big part of that was revving up a once-dormant pace, and that was quite fruitful for the first 21 or so games.
Noah LaRoche’s offense that the Heat implemented this offseason essentially eliminated ball screens from their offense, emphasizing more space and ball movement in the halfcourt. The Heat were zagging when the rest of the NBA was zigging.
That said, teams have seemingly adjusted.
Teams have walled off the paint, making the Heat — a middle-of-the-pack team in 3-point frequency with a limited amount of volume shooting — beat them from anywhere else. And it’s worked. Since the start of December, Miami is 21st in rim frequency — even though they’re getting within ~15 feet quite frequently.
It also converted rim 2s or short 2s at a high clip, either. They rank No. 26 and 15 in rim and short 2PT efficiency since Dec. 1, according to Cleaning The Glass. Not to mention, they are No. 18 in 3-point shooting (and No. 24 in 3PAr) over that stretch, thereby dragging their effective field goal percentage to a measly 52.3 percent, the league’s sixth-worst mark.
Their pace has slowed down from 106.1 to 101.5, too, a stark difference, leading to some of the inefficiencies offensively. They were consistently creating — and exploiting — advantages at the start of the season. They were also getting more stops. None of that has been the case, with the Heat ranking No. 17 in defense over that span.
Every team will have a funk; the Miami Heat are in a major funk. It’s time to counter the counter! After all, this is an 82-game heavyweight fight.
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was checking some scores gsw blows out orlando.only magic few games over 500 against us they look like nba champ level .so there not really that good smh.gotta take a shot at pat your a bad gm now godfather.give up your duties to the man from sun or at least talk with him for advice.the dolphins went to parcells for advice.pat please contact sunman from hhh .wish sun would contact the heat the man knows trades pat have u read about it
Thank you godfather, thank you godfather, thank you godfather. Pat, you’re a bad GM. Lol! Like Florida weather, if you don’t like it, wait a minute, it’ll change.
MOJO IS M.I.A. IN DALLAS
Thank God Caleb Martin’s greed and his agent’s low IQ prevented him from taking Miami’s 5 year $65 offer ($15M per year average). After money dried up around the league, he ended up having to accept Philadelphia’s 4 year $32M deal ($8M per year average).
Philadelphia has since traded Martin to/dumped him on Dallas, where he is playing only 9.1 minutes per game, averaging 1.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 0.9 assists a game on 24.3% shooting from the field and 15.4% success rate from beyond the arc.
Talk about someone’s mojo leaving the country without a forwarding address. Riley sure dodged a bullet on that one.
He is playing terrible. I dont know what happened to him. And the same idiot, who traded Luka, send a a pick and a good player for him in Philly.
Unsigned players who do well in the Miami Heat system/culture generally don’t do so well in different systems/cultures. In addition to Caleb Martin, there have been the Brothers Johnson, Kendrick Nunn, Gabe Vincent, Jamal Cain, Orlando Robinson, Ömer Yurtseven, Haywood Highsmith and others.
I know. Spo squeeze them like lemons and collect the juice. Not much left for others.
I wonder what SG fans are thinking about Jimmy.
No, it was just Spo didn’t use Yurt the right way, remember?
I liked Yurt. Unfortunately, he was too slow footed and was unable to spread the floor. He was a good rebounder.
I was glad to see he is playing in Europe with Panathinaikos of the Greek League. (He was on 2024 EuroLeague Champion team. Also on the team is former Heat player and 2024-2025 EuroLeague MVP Kendrick Nunn, as well as former NBA players: Kenneth Faried, Juancho Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes and others.
good thing Heat won a bunch of games at the start and so they’re still a game above .500 and in the middle of the pack as other east teams tumble too. hate to see them go below .500 so need to figure this out. soon. sharkey here made good points so maybe its an internal thing that’s goin on.
The biggest problem with the Heat is not a style of play issue, and it’s not the full team. It is the substitutes, who are a steep drop off from the quality of subs on the other good teams. If it was hockey, it would be like third liners playing second line roles and one second teamer, Ty, having a starting role when he isn’t hurt. They also don’t even have a second team big man, that’s just a total void. The starters aren’t bad, but the drop off after Jaimie and Dru with the rest of the rotation is steep.
Now that we have gotten most of the overall picture with a larger sample size, the pattern has become fairly established. Many games are reasonably even until the starters need a rest, sometimes in the second quarter, sometimes in the second half. And staggering the good players with the weaker ones to try to disguise it only tires the better players out. The rightful starters, Davion, Norm, Bam, Kel’el and Andrew, deserve a better supporting cast. But, that’s been an ongoing problem since even before this season. At least we have all quality starters this year.
It’s not how we are using the players, it’s the quality of the substitutes that are holding us back.
I don’t think it is only about the quality of our bench players. They are the same players that excelled in the first 20 games (it was a joy to watch them play.. And we all praised our depth!) Have they suddenly forgotten how to play basketball?
I am not saying I have all the answers. But it is clear that other teams have adjusted to our offense. The sudden and significant drop off in our offensive production cannot be explained in any other way. The Heat have found themelves in a new situation (with teams adjusting) and they are struggling. This is why everybody looks so much worse, maybe with the exception of Kelel, who is finally getting more playtime. But all the other players without exception seem to be playing worse, including our best player Powell.
In the beginning folks blamed Tyler’s return, but he has been out with injury and the team isn’t any better without him. So clearly, this was not the issue. The other argument (here at hhh) was too many white players (no comment). Now you suggest the quality of bench players. And while we may not have the best bench unit (well they sure don’t play well now), I don’t think they are the worst either (or as bad as the current stats show). Obviously our big problem is we don’t have a back up center (everybody can see that). This is our biggest weakness. But would the addition of one solve everything? Probably not. I think our offense needs tweaking and adjustments. It is clear it’s not efficient anymore and the coaching staff needs to come up with solutions.
Fantastic take on the subject! I’ve been saying pretty much the same thing. Everyone was raving about our high scoring second unit. As I pointed out, Herro has played 6 of the 29 games. With Herro, 3-3. Without Herro 12-11. Not much difference. Other teams have adjusted. Some key players have either been out or their game has dropped off a bit. If this team gives the effort it gave last night, it will be fine. A good strategic trade or 2 could really help.
sunman only guy i know of that was raving
May want to try reading the older comments. When our second unit was scoring 40-50 points, a lot of people here were praising them. Jaquez was killing it, Simone was hitting around 45% of his 3s, Dru was solid.
How many more games could Miami have won if a healthy Herro, Larsson and an average Niko had been available to come off the bench (2-3-4-5)?
I agree we need better depth, gotta make some trades, cuz right now we’re just a play in team, but easier said then done. Rozier contract plus silver are limiting us. Don’t have a back up big, so ware, and bam can’t share the floor more. Jovic has been a big disappointment, Simone fell off big time. Pelle hurt, keshad can’t find a way to get pt. Herro gets hurt a lot, and Wiggins is inconsistent. I hope we make some moves. If not it’s still a gap year.
keshad looked good when hed got pt for whatever reason top 15 is not giving him pt spo scratcher
I would send him back to Sioux Falls to obtain playing time, get in a rhythm and gain confidence. He’s still a little too raw for primetime.
how do u know he hardly plays when he plays he looks better than brick layer fonzi.keshod will neverhurt us because he defends.leave him open seen him bury some js.give the fn guy a shot spobot he cant be worse than simone.same as pelle he wont help to much but he can guard pretty good hes a swedish athlete,not as good as keshad but better than simone
Keshad is stronger and better defender. fg% is 39%, 3p% is 29%, ft% is 69%. Simone fg% is also 39%, 3p% is 37%, ft% is 79%.
Just pointing out stats and acknowledge it is a small sample size for Keshad. And there have been numerous times I wished Spo would give him more minutes.
The problem is inconsistency. One game good next game mediocre. He needs consistent playing time to develop confidence and consistent habits.
hes hardly fn plays sun. says 6 mp 15 games played 15 games on ars.simone 19 mp .simones a liability on d btw
No, the problem is talent. The rest (length, power, motor, will, grit…) is there.
Actually, the problem is skill. He has the physical tools and the desire, however, he is still vey raw. He’s probably a longer term development project, like Jovic (who is in year #4).
he can slow down guys that are killing us.we dont need him for offense,prevent scoring just as important as scoring.if there somewhat equal on offense show me more keshad im intrigued.ive seen about 30 games of simone dont like what i see.ive seen a few games when keshads gotten 15 plus minutes otherwise tied to the spobot bench.the only good european guy is pelle.he can guard and dont take sht.dont underestimate the loss of dan majerle 2.0.he wont help u win that much but he wont be a reason you lost.doesnt shoot it alot doesnt get scored on to much.like to see him back soon like his rough style of play cuase the rest of the team less dav bunch of softies.
Except for your last line, I agree.
Bench players are bench players because they are worse then starters. 3 players are missing right now, and at least two of them already helped the team played well before.
If something, we need different type of players, not better ones, or incorporate those players in roles where can be successful.
I also believe, when need to shrink a bit rotation to 9 players, which brings more consistency. Whoever will be left of, would be a candidate for a trade.
i dont think u could win a chip with the heat bench u give okc are 6 -10 they would be alot worse
Excellent points 30. I think the overall issues are:
Herro, Rozier and Jovic are not contributing anything at all.Bam and Wiggins are playing below expectations.Spo has failed to modify the new Heat offense to address adjustments made by opposing teams to slow the Heat’s game down.Miami needs another high scoring two-way PG or SF and a good two-way PF/C to be competitive.Miami needs to clean house and get rid of players who do not fit it’s future plans beginning before the deadline and no later than next summer.Miami needs to draft asolid, athletic big man in the 2026 draft.Jakucionis needs to be given playing time to develop.Between now and the trade deadline, Jovic and Johnson need to be sent to Sioux Falls to get playing time and develop their games.HHH fans need to chill tf out.
No other players have shown they shouldn’t be in Miami more than Ty and jovic yet here we are still sending jovic to the g league and waiting on Herro to be something more than an injury prone liability on and off the court
Both players are built in a way it’s hard to overcome. Some guys can’t bulk up enough. Holmgren is the exception to that rule but mostly, you need to have more of a muscular frame to withstand the rigors of the game. That’s why I have more hope for Kaspar than those two as he will be strong enough when he bulks up and he appears to be just as gifted an athlete as Ty.
No team will take Jovic because of poison pill contract extension. Who wants injury prone Herro? He needs to play to raise his market value by deadline.
the league has film on ty hes not a rook theyre all aware of injuries and no d.your not gonna get much for tyler maybe a bad team will take him.
In that case, he stays until his contract expires. That gives him time to assimilate with the team and its new offensive system and work on his defense. Worse case scenario, he walks away as a free agent in June 2027, with no compensation to Miami.
💯
ive been saying this for years jovic will be fine on the other side of the ocean
brother where have u been u are so on point all the fn time.
u dont adjust the offense u adjust the players.if u have oppty to run ok.but basically get better players.easier said than done obviously
no jovics been given enough chances comeon dude what have u seen in him .one good play one bad play.nba players dont do that.keshod needs nba time see what hes got we need help off the bench right now.bench is getting killed out there .main reason for our suckiness lately
They should bot go to Sioux Falls for “seasoning.” The first one who gets his game together gets returned to Miami.
both
your opinion the only way to improve roster is trade jovics been given enough chances .id compare jovic to a good college qb that couldnt cut in nfl so they go to canada or usfl .diff game in states for shnozy not meant for it.in europe he blows by alll the serbs and outjumps em to not in usa.take micks $$$ back to serb and play over there would be my advice for nikola
His contract won’t allow for him to be traded this season without penalizing the other team. I hope this helps you understand so we can put the trade issue to rest until next summer.
“Poison Pill” Provision: Because Jović’s extension was a rookie extension, the trade value of his salary is different depending on which team is evaluating the trade. His new, higher salary ($15+ million annually starting in the 2026-27 season) is used for the receiving team’s salary matching purposes, while for the Heat, his lower current-season salary ($4.4 million in 2025-26) is used for outgoing salary matching in a trade. This significant discrepancy makes constructing a legal and balanced trade package very difficult for potential trade partners.