Hanifan: The Heat’s biggest X-Factor isn’t a player, it’s a style

After three straight seasons as a bottom-third offense, the Miami Heat and head coach Erik Spoelstra spent much of the offseason not only uncovering, but drilling a completely new offensive style into the team.

For most of Spoelstra’s previous 17 years with the Heat, they only knew one pace: A deliberate, methodical one, at that. Well, this new one was the exact opposite — one that would exhaust and break the spine of opponents. It was aggressive; it was relentless; it was tenacious, apropos to an identity that they spent years, and even decades, forming under former head coach and now president Pat Riley.

And for the first month, their new scheme was successful. Miami was the overwhelming leader in pace at 106.1 with a fringe top-10 offense and a 14-7 record.

The Heat momentarily reverted to old habits over their next nine games — a stretch where they went 1-8 with a bottom-three offense in the sport. The pace slowed down and their aggressiveness waned. Though the Heat have suddenly rekindled their pace over their last three games against Atlanta, Indiana and Denver, signifying that their biggest X-Factor may not be a single player, but a style they spent months trying to perfect.

Why the Miami Heat’s biggest X-Factor is their pace:

As it currently stands, the Heat are still atop the NBA in pace at 104.6. The eye test, for the most part, has reflected that.

However, it hasn’t always been consistent.

During a near-three-week span from Dec. 3 to 23, the Heat’s pace regressed to 100.2, causing its offense to slip to No. 29. They were missing shots they were previously making, but the issue was greater than that.

Over the last three games, however, their pace has returned to a breakneck pace of 107.2, scoring 128.9 points per 100 possessions over that span — over two points better than the next-best team. It was capped by a season-high 147 points against the Denver Nuggets, albeit without many of Denver’s key cogs defensively, namely in Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon.

“There’s going to be ebbs and flows, but we’re getting more consistent with the identity,” head coach Erik Spoelstra said after the game. “We’re putting a lot of pressure on them. The slower we play, I think the more average we become — regardless of whether teams scout us or try to prepare for it. It’s got to feel different when you play against it.

“It requires mental, physical energy and commitment every single night, which we’re fully capable of. We have a deep roster. It was good to see that energy. It always helps if you make shots. … But it’s the process of it. It was recognizable.”

There’s the key phrase: “It was recognizable.”

The Heat didn’t reinvent the wheel. They just got back to what they know: Relentlessly attacking defenses. It didn’t matter whether it was at the rim or from 3-point range — every game was in 10th gear.

In each of the Heat’s 18 fastest-paced games this season, they are 13-5. Two of their six fastest-paced games have come within the last week against Indiana and Atlanta. Their 24-point over Denver doesn’t even crack their top-18, ironically enough.

But this signifies how important it is for them to play fast. In nine of those games, their offensive rating is 120 or better; in five of them, it’s 129 or better, peaking at 133.3 against Charlotte on Oct. 28.

Conversely, in seven of their nine slowest-paced games, they have a 120 or better offensive rating just once — on Dec. 21 against the New York Knicks. In fact, the Heat sport a 104.0 or worse offensive rating in five of those games, including 102 or below in three of them.

In order for this offense to succeed, they need to — consistently and effectively — put pressure on defense at a pace opponents can’t prepare for, regardless of personnel. That’s their essential element. That’s their rope they must hold on to.

Because if they don’t, they’re going to lose.

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