It’s become a matter of when, not if, the NBA will expand. Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this week that the NBA’s Board of Governors will “likely” vote on expanding by two teams this summer, with Las Vegas and Seattle becoming the frontrunners.
One could assume that those two teams won’t be a part of the NBA for another 3-4 years. But it had me thinking: who would the Heat keep? This is supposed to be a fun thought exercise. And by the time the expansion draft actually takes place, this team will look incredibly different.
That said, which players would I keep if I were the Miami Heat? Let’s dive into it!
A few ground rules:
- Each team can protect up to eight players. In my opinion, it’s recommended that you keep at least 5-6. You may not want to keep that much. You may retain the eight max. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll keep at least five.
- We are assuming this starts at the conclusion of 2025-26
- Thus, pending UFA’s don’t count
- However, teams can protect players with a team/player option, plus pending RFA’s.
- Each team must expose one player who’s not a UFA.
- Each team can only lose one player and no more than one.
Who would we protect?
(Editor’s note: This isn’t done in any particular order.)
Bam Adebayo:
Skinny: Adebayo’s a lock. He may not be a No. 1 option (few are). But he’s the culture bearer, and the lynchpin for a perennial top-10 — sometimes top-5 — defense.
Davion Mitchell:
Skinny: Mitchell’s a bulldog and has been one of the Heat’s most important players on both ends since he was acquired in the Jimmy Butler blockbuster. He’s one of the Heat’s best passers, and is shooting 42.2 percent from deep in 75 games with Miami. He’ll likely function best as a bench guard, but his friendly contract ($12.4 million expiring) makes him a desirable protection here.
Pelle Larsson:
Skinny: Larsson has become one of the Heat’s most malleable players. The sophomore guard is averaging 10.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 60.0 percent true shooting, including a near-12-4-4 stat line as a starter. Larsson, one of the Heat’s best defenders, cutters and passers, can adapt to any role.
Kel’el Ware:
Skinny: While it’s pretty easy to see why Erik Spoelstra has seemingly lost trust in Ware (poor motor, detrimental defense), he still has an incredibly high ceiling if he can put it together. It’s all about consistency for the 21-year-old. He’s worth investing in.
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Skinny: In my fake scenario, I’m paying Jaquez, who becomes extension-eligible this summer. That extension won’t kick in until 2027-28, but I think he’s become crucial to the Heat’s up-tempo offense.
Andrew Wiggins:
Skinny: Outside of Adebayo, I felt like it was necessary to protect one big contract; Wiggins has a $30.2 player option that’s an expiring if he exercises it. Wiggins, who turns 31 later this month, is arguably the Heat’s best wing defender (not named Adebayo) and is shooting 39.5 percent from deep on five attempts per game. There’s value in that, especially since he can still be flipped as an expiring during the offseason or next February’s deadline.
Kasparas Jakucionis:
Skinny: He’s still raw. But Jakucionis has flashed tantalizing potential on both ends, especially since he’s one of the Heat’s best spot-up shooters and playmakers.
Who did we not keep?:
Ah, yes, to the names we did not keep. In total, we protected seven players. But here’s the list of who we’re throwing to the wolves for the two expansion teams to potentially acquire:
- Tyler Herro
- Dru Smith
- Nikola Jovic
- Keshad Johnson
The player I thought long and hardest about is Jovic. It’s still too early to question whether or not his contract was good or bad, although I still maintain the belief that it can be a bargain. However, his offense — particularly his shooting — has taken a stepback this year after owning 45.0/37.0/80.4 shooting splits on relative volume over his first three seasons.
He’s still only 22-years-old, and has taken a monstrous leap as an on-ball defender, where he’s shown he can reliably guard 3s and 4s (and some 2s). He also won’t exceed 10 percent of the cap over the duration of his contract; this isn’t 2015 — it’s still movable (once the poison pill ends), if need be.
While Herro was the Heat’s best offensive player last year, much of his exclusion can be attributed to his availability — or lack thereof. I love Keshad Johnson’s dynamic athleticism, but I don’t know if he’ll ever have room to be a rotation player on this team. As for Dru Smith, who has, once again, become an underrated commodity, I think it’s time to give the keys to Jakucionis.
Who would you keep if you were the Miami Heat? Let us know in the comments!
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Heat Central
Barry Jackson with some reason of concerns the Heat had about Ja Morant
“There was a reluctance to take on two years ($84M) for a player who has not played more than 67 games in any of his six seasons because of injuries and suspension. His slender body type (which runs counter to Miami preference for PGs) and diminished production couldn’t be ignored, nor the risk of extended NBA suspension with another misstep”
‘But Jakucionis has flashed tantalizing potential on both ends’
Another person who doesn’t see Kas as a defensive liability. I agree.
I might argue the Heat shouldn’t protect anyone on a second contract.
Bam is a very good player, but he’s paid like a great one (he’ll be the 12th highest paid player in the NBA next year I believe – at least as of right now).
Herro’s contract is bad, although only a year remaining, no one in the NBA wants it.
Jovic is looking like a all-time flub (though, as the article states, it’s still to early to really say)
Wiggins/Powell won’t be here, the next time this franchise is competitive. Same with Davion.
So Ware, Pelle, Kasparas, Jaquez might be the only guys I would say to protect.
A’ja Wilson & Bam Adebayo — who are dating — going to Golden State is ‘something to monitor,’ as the Golden State Valkyries plan to pursue A’ja Wilson in free agency, & the Golden State Warriors have interest in Bam Adebayo.
Well, if I HAD TO pick out which 5 I would protect –
Jovic
Pelle
Kas
Herro
And Simone.
If I could take one more, It would have to be be Vlad.
😆 😆 😆
LMAO Now you’re really gonna piss off some folks.
You think he joking when he’s not RC is a herro defender hell might even be herro himself with the way he comes to his defense whenever someone says anything negative about him he’s doing nothing else with his time so who knows
You are mistaken. He wants to see Herro off the books as much as he wants Rozier off the books.
RC is a pretty level headed and objective person. Like the rest of us, he wants to see a competitive successful team that can hold its own against any team on any given night.
This team looks like it isn’t going to make any significant improvement in the standings until there is an upgrade in personnel, possibly this summer.
I genuinely appreciate that SM.
You’re welcome RC. Just telling it like it is. I think all of us are frustrated and have a variety of opinions on how to improve the team. We just have different ways of expressing ourselves. Hopefully, we can keep the harsh, biting, scathing criticism to a minimum and focus on constructive ideas and responses based on facts.
As Richard Pryor once said: “I don’t mind you kicking my ass, but don’t be yelling at me too.” (or words to that effect)
Come on now hhh. It’s hard to defend a guy who’s been out 90% of the season. When he is playing, he’s a good offensive player and a poor defender. That’s all I say. The season has been mostly a mess. And you and I agree that it would be better to get into the lottery than get booted out early in the playoffs again.
Imagine those 5 win something in the future.. a theory or two would proved to be a bit shaky.
You got me. But, hard to imagine.
Big brawl in Charlotte. Detroit vs Hornets players. Check out Duncan. Hilarious.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/duncan-robinson-became-a-meme-for-abandoning-pistons-hornets-fight/ar-AA1W4JVU?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=da8ee69f07874ffc904e2b1ed10fdeaf&ei=19
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAwz2AHaEAA8Cxd?format=jpg&name=large
duncs a big dude he would tear my old ars up in afight,against young big bros prob not.nyk cant beat det thompson shuts down brunson.cleve believe only team that could beat detroit unless tatum comes back which sounds like he might,
Boston when Tatum gets back sooner than later.
Duncan said (to himself) f*** that ****. I ain’t no foo.
Excerpt from FANSIDED:
Heat have painfully obvious Tyler Herro decision to make this summerThe Heat need to trade Tyler Herro.
“If there’s one thing that has become abundantly clear for the Miami Heat, it’s the fact that they’re going to have to trade Tyler Herro this offseason. If the plan is to pursue – and land – a star player this summer, trading Herro is a matter of “when” and not necessarily “if” at this point.
Especially after keeping Norman Powell beyond the trade deadline, this decision has become more and more clear. Again, if the Heat believes they’ll be able to land a star player in the next few months, trading Herro seems like the next natural move.”
I would only trade Herro as part of a trade for Giannis. Barry Jackson article says no team offered a first for Herro, Wiggins, or Powell at the deadline. Herro will have even less trade value this offseason on an expiring contract next year. Under this CBA players only return first round picks in trades if they’re already signed for long-term contracts (Bane, JJJ, Zubac, Jared McCain etc) or they’re All-NBA talents (Anthony Davis, Giannis etc). Expiring contracts don’t have close to the same value they did under the old CBA because teams are not trying to clear cap space for free agency, which basically doesn’t exist anymore.
Herro’s lack of availability right now is frustrating, but it’s part of the game. His contract next year isn’t bad, it’s $33m but that’s only 20% of the salary cap. Offseason depends on what they do with Wiggins and Powell, but trading a 26 year old Herro for 2nd round picks is not a trade that has to be made. A bad trade is worse than no trade at all
impressive posts bro thanks.with u and sunman who needs ira winderwoman or barry jackass
Here are excerpts from an article in Heavy on Heat. Miami Heat ‘Frustration’ Growing on Tyler Herro Injury
“First it was ankle surgery, and for the Miami Heat, even that was frustrating. Because star guard Tyler Herro was bothered by pain in his ankle and foot during the summer, and could have had surgery in August or so that would have kept him on track to be ready for the start of the season (or thereabouts). Instead, Herro waited until September 19 to have the surgery, and he missed Miami’s first 17 games.
Then it was his bruised toe. Surely, that was painful, but after playing five games following the ankle surgery, with a subsequent brief attempt at a return, Herro went down again, this time with a contused toe. Somehow, that kept Herro out for a month.
Now it is Herro’s ribs, in what the NBA injury report described as, “Right Costochondral; Injury the the Ribs.” Essentially, that’s a bruise to the cartilage where the chest bone and the ribs connect. That bruise has now kept Herro out for 14 games, the better part of a month.
Tally it all up and you get a late surgery plus two bruises causing Herro to miss 44 of the 55 games the team has played thus far.
Miami Heat Ready to Replace Tyler Herro
There is no doubt, as one assistant coach said, that the Miami Heat are about fed up with Herro’s lack of availability. A franchise that has historically prided itself on having the top conditioning program in the NBA and developing the toughness of its players is watching Herro show up in street clothes day after day, while being paid $31 million per year, with $33 million coming next season.”
He and Jovic are unmovable. Jovic isn’t nba level and Herro has another contract coming up and is always injured. Nice job with those contracts Pat. Neither player has any nba value.
Those two players and their contracts are ruining the Heat as they tie up wasted salary and disallow many opportunities to make this team better. Every time they put Herro in a trade the trade falls apart. They wouldn’t even try to trade Jovic. Everyone but the Heat knows he belongs in Europe.
Why does someone so knowledgeable about basketball make such unwise moves as Riley did, got to question whether there were other emotions coloring his decision making processes. Whatever the reasons, I like to quote Bob Dylan, who said it best, (Pats) an idiot babe!- or at least he has become one.
Think what it would have been like if Don Shula didn’t have his restaurants and the good sense to step aside and know when to let someone else take his place. Thats part of Shula’s great legacy., he went out near the top. Pat is destroying his legacy. Someone please get Pat something else to do.
Don’t forget Rozier’s salary. The perfect storm/trifecta. Herro, Rozier, Jovic.
This hypothetical expansion is 3-4 years away. Most of today’s players will be gone by then, making speculation moot.
Distraction is the process of diverting the attention of an individual or group from a desired area of focus and thereby blocking or diminishing the reception of desired information.
Should protect tyler herro yall some tyler herro haters
Its Powell or Herro. One of them must go. I pick Herro to go.
You be trippin.
purple haze all in his brain
‘Scuse me while I kiss the sky
keepers are:
-Bam (because he is a culture bearer)
-Pelle (every team needs such player)
-Kas (potential)
-Ware (potential)
-Powell (one of the best scorers in the league)
on the verge:
JJJ (can be easily limited)
Wiggins (ineffective)
Mitchell (because its to expensive for backup point guard)
I would trade the rest.
Good comments. I would keep the same. You know I like Andrew but he is rightfully on the verge as are the others, but Wiggins is there only because of his contract. In my opinion he otherwise is a definite keeper. So, It’s nitpicking but Jas would move to the verge (still don’t know a few things about his game and how it will evolve) and Andrew would be in the keepers group in my top eight. And still, we keep for now, all those on the verge.
Boy do yall think highly of bam. The reason Mia in this perennial playin spot it is now. By overvaluing avg players then get mad or upset the team doesn’t get a whale time and time again. Abd don’t give me bam is the reason they wanna come but yet they never do they sell yall that bs and yall buy it and eat it up, this from players/media/agents and the like. We knew players wanted to play with wade and for the heat because they came out and said it how many players actually came out and said such about bam and it’s not he said she said give me a direct quote!
“Perennial play in spot” is pretty recent history considering they were in the Finals three years ago. In the six seasons with Jimmy and Bam the Heat had preseason championship odds of 60-1, 18-1, 25-1, 16-1, 16-1, and 50-1. So they were never championship favorites but they were considered contenders most seasons.
Last year they pivoted and traded Jimmy and KLove for Wiggins, Davion, Powell and Jakucionas. Preseason odds went to 200-1 without Jimmy but they added more talent than they had last year.
What about this year? I got a new one perennial past success means their not bad now playin team.
4peat playin championship pending
Calling a Finals team in 2023 a play-in team? Don’t get that one unless you’re evaluating regular season record as the marker of success and not playoffs.
This year it looks like there is a clear top 4 in the East (DET, NYK, CLE, BOS) and 5-6 is between Toronto, Philly, Miami, Orlando. Charlotte maybe but their oldest player is Miles Bridges at 27. Those are likely the top 9 then Atlanta at #10
2023 run was to make up for the previous year when they were #1 team in the East and failed to make it to the Finals.
hothoop guy is a hater,dont pay attention to him,not sure why hes on this site.prob a fan of a team that hasnt done jack sht (nyk) little jealousy prob.
im a heat guy for life i criticize alot they say here when u have players like niko fonzi dru and a stubborn dum ass coach puts me in a bad heat mood
Nah you not a fan. Always throwing rocks then hiding your hand say slick shit then run away. Call spo dumb all the time but you’re the biggest fan lmao. Happy with the status quo of this team (playin) but your the biggest fan all just so you can watch more heat basketball lmao
a fan criticizes and praises.u seem to just criticize.i agree with most of your posts btw but how bout little love every now and then.spos overuse of jovic.is so maddening.non use bam ware ditto.non use of keshad or vlad also especially when shnozzy looks like sht just about every night.so please support the team just a little but i dont think your a heat fan?i did want the heat in the playoffs maybe they get hot and get couple games from the cavs.didnt work out shows u what bam and herro are not much .i dont think bam is a #1 player or#2 player.if hes your third best player your in good shape
That’s the problem now yall supporting mediocrity, they’ve been a playin team since the playin started a middling team in need of star talent but won’t do what’s necessary to get one get in the lottery and hell maybe get lucky like Dallas did last year. It doesn’t have to be the first pick it can be top 5 (again something I’ve said before but was met with vitriol). The other way to save this team is to trade bam…..it’s the only way something I also mentioned trade bam to okc for jwill again met with negative comments about how okc would rather trade sga their mvp franchise leader btw than jwill from 2015heat. He like most here believe that whale is coming when their not nobody is coming to save this team Giannis not antman not Mitchell not they aren’t coming it’s just a fact and im tired of the team waiting for them to come. Then we have the ten crackhead commandments dont even get me started on that. The team is old fashioned getting left behind because of it rant over
4peat playin championship pending
OKC is not trading JWill for a higher paid Bam, that’s just never happening. Williams is about to start a 5 year / $240m contract that will take him through his age 29 season at just $48m average per year. Last year he was All-NBA (3rd team), all-defense 2nd team, and scored 40 points in a Finals game. Bam is starting a 3 year / $161m extension at age 29 next season at around $54m avg per year.
And the tanking option being advocated relies on trading winning players (Herro, Wiggins, Powell) for 2nd round picks at the deadline, to end up with less than what Chicago got, which was 9 SRPs and no FRPs.
But hypothetically if they had done that, then also sat Bam and the rest of their rotation for the 2nd half of the season they could end up as probably the 11th worst team at best, and would have around a 9% chance of a top 1-4 pick and a 91% chance of a pick 11-14. They would probably pick at #11 (>75%)
In comparison basketball reference gives them a 37% chance of a top 6 seed and a 4.2% chance to win the conference
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html
Dude just say you don’t want Willam’s and you think Giannis or any other whale is coming to save Mia clown
That’s what I think too. Ain’t no Calvary riding in, and there’s about five good reasons why not but that talk is really just excuses anyway. They know they can’t get a superstar but they need to act like they are trying. But, it might not be just Pats incompetence. It’s his fault because he strapped the team with unmovable contracts (and Sun was right to add Rozier to that list because there was some blame with Pat on that too going back to Lowry and also not doing due diligence on Scary). But, the owner might also be an impediment to them getting anything else done too, not that I blame him for putting his foot down with bumbling Pat. But, anyway you slice it, no savior is coming.
Heat keep selling fans a dream that almost never becomes realityThe Heat are not really star hunters. (allucanheat)
Former NBA coach Mo Dahkil couldn’t have said it better on a recent episode of The Zach Lowe show, when he called out the Heat’s front office for being pretty mediocre over the last few years, and, perhaps most importantly, not coming through with their promise of acquiring stars.
Tell that to 2015heat who believes Mia will get a ss and they will save Mia from mediocrity lmao. Dude doesn’t want a jwill over here fighting me when I asked what his solution was? He said Giannis being number 1, Pat has did a number on this fanbase it’s embarrassing
I never said I dont want Williams in Miami. Great player, a future superstar, already the second best player in a champion team, and still young player on his rookie contract.
The problem is, I know that, you know that, OKC know that, and the rest of the league know that too.
There is simply no way, that OKC will trade him any time soon for any price, because there is maybe 15 players better then him, and in the year or two there will be 5 of those.
Never sad your name again if Luka doncic can get traded Jalen Williams can be traded tf is wrong with yall? Said it 1000 times what’s yall solution then? Wait on Giannis who’s not coming a guy more accomplished than Williams but sure he’s coming here, nah antman a ss who’s top 5 in the league he’s coming most definitely, Or Mitchell arguably the best sg in the league he’s coming here for sure right. Yeah just criticize someone else options the team can take by calling it unrealistic while also having unrealistic expectations in mind as well
Luka trade is the worst trade in history of NBA and it shouldn’t happen. If OKC will ever hire Harrison, that you are right, it might happen.
Solution is to get best players available. Giannis might be that in the summer, as Kawhi and Mitchell too. I would go after Giannis and Kawhi, but not Mitchell.