(Photo via Miami Heat/X)
After an up and down first 50+ games for the Miami Heat this season, they have still yet to figure out the perfect rotation.
It doesn’t help that the team’s 2024 All-Star in Tyler Herro has only played in 11 games due to an assortment of different injuries. However, the Heat could finally be getting their talented combo guard back very soon. Miami Herald’s Anthony Chiang recently iterated that the “expectation” is that Herro will be back in practice starting Thursday, with a return to game action within the next coming days.
Herro has missed the team’s last 15 matchups, sidelined with a rib injury. Overall, he’s been out for 45 out of the team’s possible 56 games— on route to appear in by far a career low amount of games in what has already been an injury riddled seven-year career in Miami.
Nagging minor injuries have also struck the Heat’s newest All-Star Norman Powell recently. Key glue guys Pelle Larsson has been in and out, along with Davion Mitchell. But a fully healthy squad could finally come to fruition soon, just in time for a post-All-Star break playoff push.
Coach Erik Spoelstra still sees the vision of a high ceiling with a healthy Heat team. “Offensively, I think when we get our guys back, I think we’re going to be a really dangerous offensive team,” Spoelstra recently told the media. “We can be fourth in the league in scoring with large parts of our rosters on the sideline. Just wait until we get our guys back into the fold.”
Should the Miami Heat make a drastic starting lineup change?
Considering all the inconsistencies and injuries, Miami has had over 20 different starting lineups this season. However, Spoelstra has yet to unveil arguably the best one— and one that was projected to be that first unit heading into this 2025-26 campaign:
Herro, Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware.
Without considering the fit, this is hypothetically the Heat’s best five players all in one lineup.
Mitchell’s early season emergence as the starting point guard made it difficult to remove him from so. But he has since cooled off. Ware, fresh off a rising stars game, recently earned his way back with the starters before the All-Star break came. And Spoelstra has been impressed with his impact as of late as one of the biggest ceiling raisers on the roster alongside Adebayo in the frontcourt.
Unless Spoelstra’s plan is to bring Herro off the bench moving forward, it leaves either Mitchell or Ware as the odd man out. Mitchell is the type of role player that can provide two-way value whether he’s starting or coming off the bench. The same can’t be said for Ware, who has had a minimal impact in games that he has appeared in a reserve role.
Despite a lack of reliable backcourt defense in Mitchell’s absence between Herro and Powell, there’s still an elite defensive frontcourt trio in Wiggins, Adebayo and Ware there to back them up.
Miami is still struggling to be a .500 team. They have nothing to lose in attempting to make any significant rotation changes. Why not put a formula of your top-five talents on the court at the same time and see where it goes?
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why no game tonight f that i miss rc
we have so many good players more than any team i would say but no ss so no rings.when will i meet rc on bisc blvd in july.im 69 got 15 years in me.u think it will happen before hfl departs earth
Waiting for an another title would be a good reason to stick around a bit longer, say about next 30 years. Riley will be departed a bit earlier, in 10 or so years. 10 years of tanking and another 10 years of having all that 1st round picks is enough for a decent GM to bring the title back in Miami.
The only downside of that plan is that the party will be a little slow. (no dancing on tables I suppose).
30 years ill be in heat heaven watching from above
then is time to cut Riley now.
hes been bad last few years but owners his best friend
I asked Chat gpt how Riley currently ranks as a GM. They acknowledged that historically he is ranked very high, but recent evaluations have him outside the top ten (they did not explain how far outside). But, the consensus by those who rate such things is, surprise… Pat is slipping.
ask me im the expert hfl gpt .heat are mediocre so gms mediocre thats all u need to know 30
Other teams don’t mind trading players on their team to get better in the long run/future of the team. Mia’s FO like some of its fans are stuck in the past. Have dumb shit like a 10 heat commandments should tell you all you need to know about how and who runs this team a bunch of dinosaurs with a old school mentality getting left in the past
just heard on ch 6 nbc sports tylers return very soon.crowded house in wades house.like to see our team full strength less niko.
Herro / Powell / Wiggins / Bam / Ware (lineup in article)
Herro / Powell / Larsson / Wiggins / Bam
Davion / Herro / Powell / Wiggins / Bam
Think those should be the starting lineup combos. Would start both Herro and Powell and stagger their minutes so one is always on the floor. Davion is really needed for POA defense. The Davion/Wiggins/Bam 1/3/5 combo is the foundation of the Heat’s #4 defense
I am not one who thinks Herro should start over Mitchell. Herro as a seventh man seems the more optimum use of our personnel. Sometimes the Heat appear to take financial considerations into their player usage decisions. And perhaps they also don’t easily admit their mistakes.
You know I have been called a Herro apologist, lol. I see the positives in his game as well as his deficiencies. I agree with you on this one to give the team the best chance to win games. A second unit of Jaquez, Herro, Pelle, Kas or Gardner, and one of Bam or Ware has explosive potential. It is not a knock on Herro, it’s what may be the better fit.
I mentioned Herro in starting unit because that’s what Spo did last time after he had been out injured a couple of months
I agree Herro should eaze in playing with the second unit. Herro could make a killing against other teams’ second teams. If he functions well and the team is benefitting, he can either continue on second unit or be returned to the starting unit.
If he has trouble adjusting, at least he will not be screwing up the rhythm the current starters have developed.
a fresh ty is really good offensively
I would be very disappointed if Spo immediately reinserted Herro into the starting lineup. I feel he should have to earn it. I’d rather have Mitchell, Pelle, even Gardner in that group. Realistically though, we may see Herro start.
So you want to waste what few games are left on Herro earning the right to be back in the starting lineup? I get he’s been injured most of this year, but he’s still an AS and a 6MOTY. Now maybe the lineup ends up blowing chunks, but I would be okay with that lineup once he’s back so we can see if it can work. Not much time and nothing to lose.
Yeah Herro has to start if healthy, no question. One of the Heat’s longest tenured players, one of 8 players in the entire league to average 23-5-5 last year, he’s definitely earned the right to start
No question? As noted above, I have been a supporter of his from the beginning. He is a gifted offensive player, but poor defensively. He has, when healthy, earned the right to be a starter. But he’s missed 45 games and other players, specifically Mitchell and Pelle, have filled in admirably and have fit very well. I appreciate that you, like myself, are a numbers guy. They tell a lot, but they don’t tell everything. They are 3 1/2 games out of 5th, and 4 1/2 out of 11th right now. In 3 different power rankings I looked at, they are ranked 18, 18, and 19. I love that they have 9 players on the roster now who are 27 or younger, not counting the 2-way players. Do you see Herro as part of the Heat’s long term plans? Do you think he should get an extension at $40-50m per season?
I think Herro when healthy is the best player on the team other than Bam, and given his talent level and tenure there is no reason to bring him off the bench. No idea what will happen with an extension but he’s signed for 20% of the cap next year which is totally fair if he’s healthy. He wants a raise from his 4/$120M contract, which like Ja Morant’s was agreed to in 2022 before the new CBA went into effect, which has tanked contract values for players. I think his uncertain extension status is the main reason he has little trade value right now.
Austin Reaves will probably get $40-50M/year and I would rather have Reaves than Herro at that number, but I think the Heat should try to keep Herro. I put a lot of stock into his shooting ability, age, and work ethic. He’s not afraid to take big shots which is an important quality, and his stats keep improving – he’s a volume scorer who shot 47% last year and is shooting 50% this year (although in 11 games). The defense is not great but he’s also not Trae Young out there. I think he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet (not sure what it is). Time will tell if last year was an outlier career best year at age 25, but I think it’s a solid bet that he is still improving.
The mediocre power rankings for the Heat are a fair point but I’d argue that the NBA writers tend to all think alike and fall for recency bias and not project going forward. I saw one say tonight that Orlando will get the #6 seed and this was after the news about Franz Wagner being out indefinitely. I would much rather have Miami’s team than Orlando and think the Heat have a solid shot at the 5-6 spot.
If the players stay healthy and Herro is performing at an all-star level, I agree the Heat could be a #5 or #6 seed. They have a weak schedule. If they play well from here on out, there is no reason they can’t catch Toronto and Philadelphia.
I don’t necessarily think Herro has reached his ceiling either, but I think he’s close unless he works very hard to prove otherwise. As for this statement – I think his uncertain extension status is the main reason he has little trade value right now. – I strongly disagree. When you miss 45 out of 56 games and have a history of injuries, that, imo, is the main reason he has limited trade value. And what another team is willing to pay Reaves should have nothing to do with giving Herro the extension. Whatever they decide to do with him must be done in the best interest of the Heat. They have to decide if they will extend Powell, Herro, or neither. I don’t think both would be fiscally viable.
As far as the rankings go, I believe they are fair. Can someone argue they should be ranked a spot or 2 higher? Sure. But the fact is, the record speaks for itself. This is a mediocre team (one I love nevertheless) at 29-27. With 26 games to go, what do you expect the number of wins will be? I will go with an optimistic 16-10 which, of course, would align with my preseason prediction of 45-37. That .548 would still, as of today, have us behind the Sixers, in 7th place and the play-in. I’d like you and others to weigh in on how many more wins they will get. Heck, I’ll be happy if they go 26-0, but I don’t think they will.
I don’t think that’s really important how many games Heat will win, the most important is consistency. If they will be able to put together a run of 4-5 wins, its a good sign, even in case, if followed with 3-4 loses. Altering wins and loses leads to nothing.
I predict 43-39.
Yup. I believe they haven’t won 2 games in a row since the beginning of the year.
Last offseason when he was healthy and coming off the best season of his career Herro had little trade value because of his pending extension – here is a proposed trade that had Miami getting one protected FRP for him along with DeRozan and Sam Hauser
Boston Celtics get: Tyler Herro
Miami Heat get: DeMar DeRozan, Sam Hauser, negotiable draft pick compensation
Sacramento Kings get: Anfernee Simons
https://fansided.com/nba/5-anfernee-simons-deals-celtics-swing-present-future
Come on, 2015, there are always multiple rumored trades every season. Herro was rumored to be part of a Lillard deal. It didn’t happen for any number of reasons. Some said they didn’t want him. Whether that was true or not, who knows. This season, rumors had him going to Milwaukee or Memphis. They are not worth the paper they’re written on if they don’t happen.
I am and have been in the camp that Herro can be an asset to the right team. A good example is Duncan. Surround him and his defensive shortcomings with the right players and it can work very well. I am not against you or Herro. It seems this is just another agree to disagree moment.
All I’m saying is that Herro’s low trade value right now is a function of his contract status, not his talent. Teams do not value expiring contracts (Norman Powell etc) in this CBA compared to players with multiple years left on extensions (like Desmond Bane, Ivica Zubac, Jared McCain etc)
The poor horse is already dead and we’re still beating it. I never said anything about Herro’s talent. I said it was his inability to stay on the court. (You know, availability is the best ability)
You said his low trade value was because of injuries rather than his expiring contract, so I brought up how he had low trade value last offseason when he was healthy and coming off an AS season with 77 games played. Not a huge deal but my point is that trade value is not the same thing as talent level, and Herro (in my opinion) can change the ceiling of this team because of his offense
Just for comparison before this year Herro had played 361 of 492 games in 6 years, 73%. Desmond Bane played 313 of 410 games in 5 years, 76%
Fair enough
I like the Herro-Reaves comparison because Reaves will probably be making around $40m next year which is 25% of the cap. Herro is signed for $33m or 20%. Reaves is a better player although Herro is two years younger.
Reaves can sign for a maximum of 5/$241m with LAL or 4/$178m with another team in FA. He’s shown he is borderline All-NBA this year and in this CBA that’s important when a team is paying someone >25% of the salary cap. (Bam gets a lot of criticism for his contract for this reason, but I put him in that conversation because he’s a perpetual DPOY candidate who also averages around 20ppg).
I hope they can keep Herro, Powell and Wiggins. I think 2 of those 3 is realistic
I think resigning an oft injured player for 20-25% of the budget would be a very poor financial decision. It is among the reasons I was not thrilled with the prospect of trading for Ja.
On the # of wins remaining in the RS, I’m not sure but I am going off of the underlying talent of this team and the probabilities of getting a top 6 seed. Goal should be to get into the top 6 without sprinting to do it and gradually ramping up for the playoffs
Top 6 seed probability
TOR 74%
MIA 51%
PHI 41%
ORL 25%
CHA 6.5%
ATL 2.4%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html
If everyone remains healthy, I do believe they can get to the 6 spot. I am a big fan of the youth and depth of the team. I believe if they add an A level player next season, they can be very competitive.
Optimism is forbidden lately around here, that’s the reason for minuses. I disagree about Herro. He wasn’t bad, we he played, but the team played worse with him in the lineup. Maybe was a small sample size, maybe players are not used to each other, but I dont see a lineup well with Herro and Powell a good one.
I always welcome optimism, but it’s good to be realistic. I agree that the Powell Herro backcourt hasn’t looked great in the small sample size we’ve seen. SM expands on this idea below. I want what’s best for the team. IMO, what’s best for the success of the team would be Herro coming off the bench. It has nothing to do with whether Herro is deserving of starting. It’s about what may result in more wins for the Heat.
I agree. First unit should be strong defensively. I believe a lineup of Mitchell, Powell, Wiggins, Pelle and Bam is the best we can put out there as starters. Then there is 7-8 players which can contribute from the bench in different ways
But I think, when Herro is back its time to stick with shorter 9 man regular rotation. JJJ, Herro, Ware, Kas from the bench.
I have liked the recent play of the twin towers lineup, so I’d prefer Ware, Bam, Wiggins, Powell, Mitchell. But Pelle has done well and fits well with the starters too. I also like a second unit of Jaquez, Pelle, Herro, Gardner, and one of Bam or Ware remaining on the floor. Reserves Kas, Dru, Simone, Jovic, and Keshad. I don’t think that’s what it will be, but I like it.
Yes, that’s another possible lineup, which could be good, but it might need to include some minutes of Dru or Kas, because second unit doesnt have a point guard, and some Jovics minutes to be a 3th rotation big. Then we are again at 11 man rotation, which is, I believe, on of the reasons for up and down season.
I think a bigger sample is definitely needed. Mitchell-Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Adebayo lineup is +13.9, but in only 93 minutes
https://screwball.com/nba/tyler-herro/on-off-splits
Yes, but time for experimenting should be over. I believe is time to shorten and establish a permanent rotation of 9 players and stick with it.
I’ve been one of his biggest supporters over the years, as you know. The team is 25-20 with Herro, 4-7 without him. I don’t think we’re wasting these few games in a season likely to lead to another play-in. My preseason prediction of 45-37 was one I hoped could get them the 6 seed. I stand by the prediction, but it may not get us into the top 6. I am for the youth movement on the team. I’m not sold on Herro (like Simone and Wiggins) being part of the future and think giving him any extension in the $40-50m per year would be a disaster. So, IF it’s true that he may be gone after this season or the next, I’d rather see experimentation with players more likely to be here in 2-3 years. Unless you believe this team can make a legitimate run in the east?
Mea culpa. Heat is 4-7 with him, 25-20 without him.
Boy I can’t wait til the days he’s no longer on this team, good god the way he’s talked about around here you’d think he’s bird Jokic doncic all rolled into one. Bringing up reg season stats but not his career 14 ppg in the playoffs which matters more than reg season numbers.
I mean haven’t we seen it already? He’s started 11 games this year and Miami’s scoring is down, Miami allows more points, and has a worse record when he plays.
What’s the run way we need to see? To be a fast break team, you need to make stops, Herro prevents that. The fast pace Miami team needs the ball to move around the perimeter, Herro prevents that.
I don’t think Herro’s a bad player, I think he’s a highly skilled offensive guy, I just don’t think he’s fits what Miami’s doing.
Herro doesn’t fit Mia anymore and neither does bam but we aren’t ready for that convo I guess. They’re both part of the quitters timeline he’s no longer here any longer and neither should those two be but it is what it is
I explained this on another post why Ty helps us more if he doesn’t start.
Ty will get you twenty a game when he starts. That part of his contribution is great. It’s about plus thirteen over Davion. But, he will give back maybe ten more points than Davion would. And the low amount of turnovers, our biggest offensive strength this year, are due to Davion and Dru ably filling the PG role. If Davion doesn’t start, not only do turnovers go up, but the offense takes longer to get situated to attack the hoop by maybe three or four more seconds on average, which will negatively impact it.
Furthermore, our strong defensive stats are very much helped by Davion’s “off night” effect. We will lose that advantage with Ty out there and Davion on the bench. And that’s why I say sometimes financial considerations cloud the decisions made and those who blame Spo for some Sposcratchers are likely blaming the wrong guy. Pat deserves more responsibility for who plays and how much.
You are right in what you say above, and hhh4l, as these comments aren’t just opinion. Ty’s negative impact on the starting five has been measured during the few stints of playing time he has given us.
Starters: Herro, Powell, Wiggins, Bam and Ware
Reserves: Mitchell, Gardner, Larsson, Jaquez, Jakucionis, Smith, Fontecchio, Jovic and Johnson
Good speed. Good shooting/offense. Below average front court depth. Solid play-in team with playoff potential if the players mesh well, the stars all align just right and the other competitors collapse.