(Photo via Miami Heat/X)
The Giannis-less Milwaukee Bucks, who has still be sidelined with a long term calf injury, handed the Miami Heat their first post All-Star break loss 128-117 on Tuesday night.
Miami was in this game throughout until being outscored 39-24 in a fourth quarter collapse. They were unable to get the necessary defensive stops and the offense went completely cold down the stretch. The Heat now drop to 31-28 overall on the season and get farther behind of 1.5 games to avoiding the play-in picture. Additionally, the loss snapped a three-game winning streak— as Miami has not secured four straight wins in nearly two months.
Kevin Porter Jr. led Milwaukee with a game-high 32 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, including an array of clutch shots that helped put the Heat away. Ryan Rollins and Bobby Portis also added 21 points each.
On Miami’s side, Norman Powell dropped 26 points and 6 rebounds to help put them in position to secure the win. Bam Adebayo added 18 points and 9 boards, along with Andrew Wiggins’ 16/8/5 stat line. However, Wiggins had a tough stretch in the final minutes where he had missed an open 3-pointer followed up by missing a pair of free throws that could have tied the game. The Bucks had went on a run and never looked back since that sequence.
Tyler Herro submitted an inefficient shooting night of 14 points on 5 of 17 shooting, including just 3 of 9 from deep. Coach Erik Spoelstra attempted to showcase some Herro-Powell backcourt minutes, but that combination has still yet to prove beneficial.
Yet another strong showing in limited minutes from Kel’el Ware off the bench brought a spark early on, but the young big man was held to only 19 minutes of playing time. He made the most of his opportunity with 14 points and 8 rebounds, but it seemed like his presence would have helped the Heat more in this one with a bigger role.
The Bucks finished the game shooting 49% as a team and 41% from 3-point range to Miami’s 43% and 33%, respectively. Miami also struggled to control the ball, allowing 16 turnovers Milwaukee’s nine.
The next chance for the Heat to bounce back will be Thursday in Philadelphia in a crucial matchup for the East standings.
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Excerpts from a recent article by Heavy regarding Herro.
Miami can’t trade Herro, despite the fact that the team was very open to it ahead of this year’s deadline. There were talks around Milwaukee’s Giannis, of course, but the fact is that the Heat would have engaged with any team that showed an interest in dealing for Herro. But that’s not happened.
Herro played 77 games last year, but that’s the only time in his career he has not missed at least 15 games.
They’d love to find a taker for Herro in the offseason, but that’s a longshot.
“They can’t admit it but the frustration level with Herro is off the charts there,” one assistant coach said recently. “They can’t get rid of him, there is really no market for him out there. But what’s the use of a guy who shows up ready to play like 20% of the time?”
I said about a week ago that the difficulty in trading Herro has a lot to do with his availability. He’s a very good offensive player and below average defender. I said at the time that I don’t believe the difficulty to trade him has much to do with the fact that he hasn’t yet signed an extension. I stand by that.
I agree with your assessment of Herro, but I do feel like the contract extension makes it even harder to find a trading partner. It does seem like availability is by far the biggest issue. But, truthfully, it seems to me he still has some value and if the Heat do want to trade him perhaps part of the problem is from expecting too much in return.
duncanish d availability playoff stats thanks but no thanks.u keep tyler fresh limit his minutes hes doable.playing him 30 mins a game not the way to get the best out of him.some guys bodys just cant hold up
Okay, but are you saying it is the lack of him having the extension or the reality of him wanting one that might make it harder? I think a team would take a flyer on him as an expiring contract. If a team had great defense, but needed an offensive spark, it could be a good fit, similar to Duncan. And he’s still on a reasonable dollar amount. But if we gave him a 4 year extension at $40+m per season, I don’t think we’d find a taker.
I agree. He’d be quite an upgrade on Dunc. And the Pistons are doing great with Dunc starting. That’s why I still think our GM is unhappy with his return but that there is a market. Would Pat just walk away from Ty, not likely but definitely a possibility.
The Heat is one ss away from being competitive and one injury away (Bam) from being a lottery team. Riley should have had a fire sale a while back. He didn’t. I guess he would rather continue to be mediocre than to rebuild for the future.
Miami has a lot of C/B+ players, but very few A- players. NBA teams today can’t compete without at least one A/A+ player. Miami has none and I haven’t seen Riley do anything at all to rectify the situation.
The game has changed. Riley refuses to change with it. He can’t live off of his past accomplishments forever. If he doesn’t make some major headway this summer to make Miami a competitive team, he should be fired.
if u suk in basketball down here fans will lose interest and not go to games.this is a front running town.mickey know$$$ that.look at the marlins games.the canes when theyve been mediocre.
riley spobot aint going nowhere unless its their choice its a family thing sun what team in the nba isnt one ss away sun.hate to bring the quitter up but a prime quitter less norm wiggy would get us maybe to the finals.thing about quitter which norm wiggy dont do is make others better and take over games when needed.quitter played with less talent than this and got us to finals twice.no ss i forsee coming here soon unless our gm starts earning his $$$.has any heat player taken over a game since quitter answer no.nothing spobot can do but wait for the next ss.
theres no way det beats a healthy okc team or a nuggets team or a spurs team and prob not minn.
Anything is possible in a 7 game series involving two elite teams…especially if key players are injured/not at 100%.
sure if key players hurt it evens it out.i thought det could use another scorer aka derozan to get them over the hump
i believe kelel is our best player.so underutilized.pelle def over used/tyler over used.gardner under used.keshad dosent sniff the ct ever ditto goldin..bam just happy cashing those big cks.norm wiggy ok to good players but older.jjj under used.kas prob needs g league just to play.dumbotic coach moves every night
I saw a lot of good comments from 2015Heat in game thread.
Please keep going, ignore negative stuff.
Yes, nothing wrong with people being positive. I am in the middle. I believe the team is mediocre and has virtually no chance of being very successful this season, but I like the transition to a younger core. And we really need that one player who can carry the team to be competitive.
Much appreciated! I’m trying to learn more about stats and how they reflect what’s going on. One thing that really jumps out is how the team is losing when Bam sits.
The Heat are outscoring opponents by +7.2 points when Bam is playing and losing by -2.2 points in the minutes he’s on the bench. Davion is the only other player on the team where they are losing without him (they are +6.7 when he’s on the court and -0.3 when he’s off).
With Ware in contrast the Heat are -2 with him on the court and +6.8 with him on the bench.
The Heat as a team are ranked #6 in DREB% at 74.9%, the percent of rebounds on defense they get. With Bam off the court that goes down to 71%, which would be second worst, #29 in the league. With Ware off the court that improves to 76.5%, which would be #3 in the league. And even factoring in Ware’s offensive rebounding ability, they are a worse rebounding team with him on the court (-0.3 TRB%) and better with him off (+0.5 TRB%). With Bam in contrast they are a much better rebounding team with him on (+2.9) and much worse with him off (-3.1)
Ware obviously has a ton of potential – he has rare gifts at his size on offense – but right now the Heat are losing games in part because they are losing the minutes when he substitutes in for Bam. Not having Jovic as a reliable third big option is another factor.
Let it go, Bam of late is decent but not a 1st or second option on a championship team. He plays with the better players which helps his plus or minus. Mid players, mid team.
“Much appreciated! I’m trying to learn more about stats and how they reflect what’s going on“
Told you Bib he likes to use stats to understand why the team is so mediocre and use said stats to cope with this trash
Bam has the highest on-off on the team, +9.4, followed by Davion at +6.9
The Heat are elite with Bam on the court – the #5 offense (118.6) and the #3 defense (111.3). (This is why Spo joked about cloning Bam and Davion)
They are below average with Bam off the court – the #25 offense (112.3) and #14 defense (114.5).
Numbers are here
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2026/on-off/
As I have stated before, statistics can sometimes be accurate, yet deceptive. I gave plus/minus as an example of a stat that can sometimes be helpful and other times deceptive. At 31-28, there is, in my opinion, nothing elite about the Heat.
Here’s a couple of your comments from the game yesterday. Unfortunately, things turned out quite differently. No biggie, stuff happens:
Bucks aren’t guarding the 3 at all, should be a big 2nd half for the heat offense
Bucks playing well but Heat are going to break this game open eventually
Later, you posted this:
Heat defense with Bam on floor – 111.1 (would be #3 in league behind OKC and DET)
Again, while I don’t dispute the accuracy of your numbers, it is unrealistic by any measure to compare the Heat to the 2 best teams in the NBA this season.
I always hope for the best for the Heat. I became a fan before they even played their first game (since Schappell and Cunningham days) and I’ve been a fan since.
Again, I appreciate your optimism. I simply believe more is needed to be really competitive.
Need to separate out making predictions from stats here. I never claimed infallibility in making predictions. I thought the game would go one way and it didn’t, Heat got outplayed on both ends and Milwaukee was simply better that night. Heat couldn’t stop the ball and the Bucks had a great shooting game (close to 50% FG and 41% 3FG). And because defense flows into offense, the lack of stops affected the shooting.
On Bucks not guarding the 3, they give up the 4th most threes of any team (44.4% of the opposing teams shots are threes) in favor of guarding the paint. 51% of Miami’s shots were 3s that game, on the season Miami takes 40% of their shots from 3. For the year Miami averages 54 points in the paint, Bucks held them to 42 and outscored them in the paint (44).
On stats like offensive and defensive rating, and net rating which is ORTG – DRTG, they are just objective estimates that factor in how slow/fast a team plays so that teams can be compared. They are season long numbers, very different from individual game plus-minus. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Miami is the #5 offense and #3 defense in Bam’s minutes, but a measurement of how many points the Heat score and allow when he’s on the court. Of course Miami can’t extend his minutes to 48 per game to actually become the #5 offense and #3 defense, but it shows his impact on the game.
HAHAHA, bullchit!!!!
“Bam plays with the better players which helps his plus minus” – when the Heat are are top 5 offense and defense in Bam’s minutes and a bottom 5 offense and average defense without him …
Yes, I admit I mixed a little apples and oranges there. But I submit to you that even if Bam was able to play 48 minutes a game, this team wouldn’t be much better than it is now.
All good. But in a hypothetical Bam plays 48 minutes (which we know isn’t possible) the Heat are outscoring opponents by 7.3 points every 100 possessions, which would be tied for the third best net rating in the league behind OKC and DET.
That’s what they’re doing now in his 31 minutes a game, but they’re losing in the minutes he’s off the court.
Spo referenced this recently, how the Heat were the #4 defense overall but a top #3 defense in Bam’s minutes behind only OKC and DET, and around the same as San Antonio
Okay, but setting aside statistical analysis, do YOU think the Heat would have a much different record if he actually was able to play 48 minutes?
Not sure what you’re saying here since it’s obvious no one can play 48 minutes a game. Maxey is the minutes leader this year at 38 mpg.
If the Heat had Bam’s +7 impact the whole game they would have a record around what Boston (+7.3) has, 38-20
Instead since they’re +7 in only 31 minutes of the game (Bam’s minutes) and -2 with Bam off the court they are slightly above .500. Although on the year they are a few wins lower than their expected wins
This is where Ware being only in year 2 and really struggling on defense, and Jovic being out of the rotation really hurts. If when Bam is off the court the backup bigs could be neutral +0 and not give up points the team would have a much better record. This is one of the stories to watch going forward IMO, watch what happens when Bam subs out
If you’re suggesting that playing an additional 17 minutes a game would elevate this team from 31-28 to 38-20 with this same supporting cast, then, while we may both be glass half full personalities, we think diametrically different on this issue.
No I’m not suggesting playing someone 48 mpg. I think you’re missing the point that the backup bigs are the issue here. If Bam’s backup (Ware or Jovic) had the same impact as Bam (not going to happen although it’s possible, since they are not playing against other teams starters) then yes Miami would have the same net rating as Boston and have a similar record. What should be the goal is not losing in those minutes and getting that -2.2 without Bam closer to 0. That might not be possible to do this year and force some smaller lineups as a result
I know you weren’t suggesting anyone play 48 minutes. I was speaking theoretically. I believe, perhaps as you do, that Ware has the ability and skill set to be a perennial all star. If he was there now, would the record be better? It’s likely. Up there with Boston, OKC, or Detroit this season? I don’t think so. Besides stats, success in the NBA is as much about intangibles as any other measure.
There is a reason that Ware doesn’t play a lot of minutes. Its because he is that type of player.
When there is so many skilled guards and wing in the league, its easy to make Ware defending the perimeter, which is not his strength. They don’t do much of that with Bam, because he is a great perimeter defender and very mobile, so there is no a reason for opposing teams to play like that.
That strategy makes Ware a much worse defender and rebounder then Bam. Its not that Ware is a bad player. The team construction makes him a defensive liability.
What to do about that?
Playing Bam and Ware together would help, but there is not another big available.
Even playing Niko and Ware would help Wares numbers.
ware needs a fire lit under him.needs to play more aggressive and become a bad ass.if his temperment doesnt change dont think he will maximize his highly skilled game
As expected. Nicos fault.
Consistently inconsistent.
Hey, that’s how I described a certain person on HHH. 😆
im a 45% accurate poster.working on it
That’s a huge improvement. I’m proud of you.
im tyring to get to 50 need some more posting practice
LMAO. It looks like you are slowly starting to show progress in getting the hang of it. Take two aspirins and post 50-75 times today and call me in the morning.
i dont believe i have your #
867-5309. Call collect. Ask for Jenny (my alter ego name)
This next game will be our first real test of where this team, with everyone healthy, can compete against a team that is trying to win. Hopefully, Embiid will still be out. If he is, Philly is in real trouble because they often rest him against the tankers but save him for games like this one. It’s really surprising how mediocre the rest of Philly’s team is even with another superstar in Maxey. Yes, Oubre and Edgecomb and a few others are good players, but just like another team we know and love, it’s not that they don’t have good players, just not enough of them. Philly is a prime example of how much the superstar that Embiid is covers up a myriad of weaknesses because the team goes from a .670 team to a .450 team with or without one player.
Embiid came back last night vs pacers actually see this how I know yall don’t watch just watch Mia games
True dat. You know I don’t like Philly teams. If Embiid is playing, this I’ll be a test, a real test, against a team at the level we would meet in the first round, if we get there. Maybe we are up to it, going to be exciting.
why they give up on mccain
I thought it was a mistake. He is doing well on the Thunder.
r u a heat fan ?
Because I said embiid played? I am just not a delusional ass fanboy and realize this team is super flawed filled with mid players that’s why these last two years especially with two middle picks (Herro and bam) leading them they have been getting destroyed in the playoffs. I want talent on this team for the millionth billionth time, not projects late round picks that don’t move the needle but only add to the mediocrity of the team (kas, jjj Niko pelle).
It’s like yall are scarred by the Beasley pick but are ok with picks like those I just named. Tanked twice 1 for the teams franchise player next for a bust then another one in winslow who was only picked here because Boston wanted him and Pat didn’t want that same with Herro which is why no matter how many call for him to be traded yet he’s still here.
Why do I want this mediocre shit in the playoffs for nothing to change once they’re out? Wash rinse repeat next year.
With all the talent coming out I would love for Mia to get one look at last year and this year with like 5/6 freshmen dropping 40 point games this year something I don’t think has ever happened, but no let’s stick with the garbage we already have then to grab one of those blue chips.
Am I a heat fan? Through and through just not eating pats nicks or whoever else is in the gm chair bullshit anymore.
glad your a heat fan cool.we had a ss in the playoffs who fn quit on us .it takes time to recover.the draft is a crapeshoot unless theres a wemby out there.lots high picks are busts.need a better gm that would be a start
In the end I don’t have to prove to anyone if I’m a heat fan or not. And I’d rather take a chance on an unknown high draft pick than to keep running it back with mid players and draft picks. Again don’t know why I waste my time. Yall think Mia the only team that play basketball or something
Have you ever seen that many freshmen put up 40 point games in the history of the sport? Or are you caught up in the mediocrity your eyes won’t go nowhere else but there playinville mediocrity mountain?
I’m reposting something I wrote about a week ago in response to the argument that the draft, even a high pick, is a crapshoot.
Reply to hfl….
You are correct that some great players were drafted in the mid first round and even early second round. But your odds are better when you have a high pick. Here are just some of the players chosen in the first 5 picks. LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Tim Duncan, Shaq, Olajuwan, KG, Barkley, Wade, Pippin, Doncic, Ant, Ja, Tatum, AD, and now Flagg. So, trying to say draft picks don’t matter doesn’t hold water
What’s Wemby…chopped liver?
Our first test was last night against Bucks without Giannis. We failed miserably. If it wasn’t for all the blown games to losing teams, Heat would be comfortably in 6th place, or higher. Heat even lost to a lottery team that sat its best players in the 4th quarter and was trying to lose. In addition, several of the Heat’s wins against winning teams were when their key players (ss’s) were out.
I’ve come to the following conclusions: