How the Miami Heat can move up to 12th in lottery race

(Photo courtesy of the NBA // Draft Lottery Logo)

Since they were eliminated from the play-in this week, the Miami Heat are now officially in the lottery for the first time in over a half decade!

Miami finished the regular season 43-39, a six-win improvement from last year. As a result, they are currently No. 13 in the lottery rankings, but one scenario opens the door for the Heat to move up to No. 12 (currently possessed by Oklahoma City, via the Los Angeles Clippers).

Heat must hope that Golden State beats Phoenix on Friday:

Golden State Warriors — The Miami Heat’s season may be over, but their draft lottery odds can still improve on Friday if this one scenario happens. (Mandatory Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Miami Heat own two picks in this year’s draft: Their aforementioned lottery pick in the first, and No. 41 overall in the second.

While the Heat are 13th in the lottery odds — only ahead of Charlotte, who sent them packing — the lone scenario where they can move up to No. 12 is if Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors beat Phoenix in Friday night’s win-or-go-home play-in affair.

If Golden State won, they would become the second No. 10 seed to ever win two play-in games on the road, a feat the Heat did last year. Their pick would also move from No. 11 to 15, pushing Oklahoma City, Miami and the loser of Orlando/Charlotte down one.

A bump in positioning slightly benefits the Heat. Currently, they have a 4.8 percent chance at netting a top-4 pick and a one percent chance at earning the No. 1 pick. With the 12th-best odds, their odds for a top-4 pick increase to 7.1, while their chances at earning the No. 1 pick marginally increase to 1.5 percent.

Miami has never moved up in the draft lottery. And those odds are pretty small; there’s a greater than 86 percent chance that, if they were No. 12 or 13, they’d end up with those respective picks.

But the NBA’s worst teams haven’t always gotten the benefit of earning top-4 picks. Contrary to popular belief, the lottery has done exactly as it was designed to do. We’ve also seen Dallas and Atlanta make pretty favorable climbs to earn the No. 1 pick the last two seasons, though neither were outside the top-11.

Ironically enough, the Heat’s second-rounder — No. 41 — is Golden State’s. Now, they must hope that a compromised Curry can replicate his performance from Wednesday against a feisty Suns squad.