The Miami Heat have never had good lottery luck. Dating back to its first lottery appearance in 1989, they have never moved up in 12 lottery tries, even after the league altered the lottery odds ahead of 2019. Still, in just two appearances since, the Heat have finished with the 13th-best odds both times.
You won’t find the Miami Heat tanking, although plenty of teams have over the last half-decade. The 2025-26 season was the straw that broke the camel’s back, where six teams finished with 25 or fewer wins for the second time in three years. Many of the league’s worst were tanking to get a bite at a three-headed monster in AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer.
Games in March and April league-wide were simply non-competitive. Thus, commissioner Adam Silver decided to completely overhaul the current lottery system, instituting a “3-2-1” system. Here’s how it works:
- The most ping pong balls a team could receive is three.
- The teams with the three worst records — in the “relegation zone” — receive two each.
- Teams that don’t finish in the relegation zone and don’t make the play-in receive three.
- Nos. 9 and 10 seeds receive two each.
- Teams that lose the No. 7 v. 8 play-in in each conference receive just one (the winner doesn’t get any).
- Teams cannot finish with No. 1 pick in two straight years.
- Teams cannot finish in the top-5 of the lottery in three straight years.
With these new anti-tanking measures, one team who will inherently benefit is the Miami Heat, according to CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn.
“There are a handful of teams that historically don’t tank or have come out hard against tanking. Some of the historical non-tankers — the Wizards and Pacers, most notably — have caved in recent years,” Quinn wrote. “You’d be hard-pressed to find a single team that both talks the talk and walks the walk when it comes to tanking. The Heat are probably the closest. Pat Riley took over the team in 1995, and since then, they’ve won fewer than 25 games only once, in 2008. It took them until March of that 15-win season to start shutting down core players.
“The Heat have spent the past four seasons in the Play-In Tournament. That’s exactly where most teams don’t want to be. The middle, at least recently, has been treated as a hamster wheel. Not good enough to compete for championships now, not bad enough to get the players necessary to compete for championships later. It’s a trap. Or at least, it was.”
Miami Heat could benefit from new draft lottery:
First, the MiamI Heat — who will own two picks between 2027-29, when new system will be tested — would have to be bad enough to miss the play-in. The thought of that is significantly unlikely, even in their worst season. The bottom of the East is quite wretched.
That said, in a vacuum, the Heat scoring a top-4 pick — or even the No. 1 pick — become exponentially higher with a sprinkle of luck. This year, they had a 4.8 percent chance at securing a top-4 selection with a one percent chance at No. 1 overall. Under this new system, they would’ve had a 22.4 and 5.4 percent chance with the 13th-best odds, respectively.
Furthermore, any team who finishes 4th through 10th have an 8.1 percent chance at No. 1 overall. That’s a ginormous percentage, although flattened odds will inevitably lead to more chaos. And more chaos gives them a higher likelihood at securing a franchise-altering talent — most commonly found in the top-10.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Heat will acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo. A lot can happen over a three-year span, but a Giannis-led Heat likely wouldn’t be a lottery team. Assuming they don’t, however, history suggests that the Heat will drop further than they rise.
But if you believe in positive regression, Miami is due for some sort of luck, right?
Right?!?!?!
***
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
Check out Hot Hot Hoops on Facebook here!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo spotted together at Liberty-Aces game
- First piece of Heat’s reported Giannis Antetokounmpo trade falls into place at NBA Draft
- WATCH: Jaime Jaquez Jr. reacts to getting dealt in Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster
- 3 shooters Heat should target after acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Hanifan: What Heat do next after poaching Giannis Antetokounmpo is just as important
- NBA Trade Grades: Heat finally capture their whale, land Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo to Heat in blockbuster
Spurs need a couple more years? Who said that? lol!
wemby home wemby road
i would trade any guy not name bam ware for mccain in a ny minute.
Dude is on a veteran’s minimum contract for next two years. His 2026-2027 salary will be $4,422,600. He was traded from Philadelphia to OKC prior to the February deadline for 2026 first round pick and 3 future second round picks (1 in 2027 and 2 in 2028).
mccains their second best player i believe.f dort
dorts unplayable put the italian stallion in
dorts been very jovicish
dinner dollar store game 7 go thunder
Excellent article on what missing out on a Giannis trade could teach Miami about asset management and building future rosters through the draft. Its worth the five minute read, when you have time.
https://allucanheat.com/failed-giannis-pursuit-could-teach-heat-painful-roster-building-lesson
Excerpts from allucanheat article May 27, 2026
Spurs are proving something the Heat front office won’t want to admitAre the Heat building their roster the wrong way?
Maybe it’s better to chase unicorns (and generational ones at that) than whales.
San Antonio is proving that there may be a new (and better) way to build in the NBA. Unfortunately, it’s one team-building philosophy that it would be surprising to see the Heat embrace.
It’s one of those topics that the fan base has grown frustrated with. Because even if the front office won’t admit it, it does seem as if the franchise’s philosophy is to wait for a star to get disgruntled and hope they can trade for them. In the eyes of some, it’s based on a wish and a prayer.
But if the Heat were more willing to build through the draft, you’d see a lot more fans embrace the process than perhaps the front office believes.
In theory, the front office doesn’t want to “tank” because they want to uphold this mantra of “never giving up” and always being competitive. That’s well and good, until you realize that three out of the four conference finalists from this year “tanked” their way to the foundational cores that they currently have.
The Heat just won’t fully commit to that level of team building. And, ironically, it could end up being one of the bigger reasons why they stay stuck in mediocrity over the next few years.
Because if not for Giannis, it’s hard to envision how the Heat are going to break out of the Play-In lull anytime soon. And that’s the biggest problem for the Heat, which leads one to believe that it may be time for some self-evaluation.
It’s OK to change. It’s good to shift. It’s a necessity to evolve. Even if the Heat’s front office isn’t willing to admit it, the signs are clearly there. And, more than any other team in the league, the Spurs might’ve just proved the Heat’s formula is completely wrong – and way too risky.
The problem is, they don’t appear to be too willing to hear it.
been to finals 2 last 6 years,always felt with jimmy we had a chance get giannis id feel the same way .jimmys supporting cast sukd pretty much except bam and caleb every now and then
6 first round picks in the next 8 years. 2-3 of those would go to Bucks in the proposed Giannis trade. How do NBA’s lottery changes make Miami a winner when there are teams with 10+ first rounders in that time period? They are the winners.
Dogs days of NBA. The only question for next two weeks is, who will sweep NY, SA or OKC. And the answer will be known today.
After that a week of frenzy, and after that, who knows, probably cursing because of Riley till the end of October.
Won’t be a sweep. Looking forward to tonight & Finals. Heat are an afterthought. Way behind the curve. Odds to again run it back are increasing.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Let’s hope Miami is prepared for success when the opportunities present themselves.
The Heat will keep the 2027 pick if they are a lottery team again. If that happens, the pick would automatically go to Charlotte in 2028 (as part of the Rozier trade). Thank you Adam Silver.
If Miami trades for Giannis, it will very likely be out this year’s #13 pick, plus future picks. If that happens, the Heat will need to fill the 2026-2027 roster via trades and by signing free agents and G Leaguers.
“If that happens, the Heat will need to fill the 2026-2027 roster via trades and by signing free agents and G Leaguers.”
Pretty much exactly like every Finals run they have made.
ring chasers to play with a top 3 player
B-I-N-G-O and HFL was his name-o
Also, I think they are pretty dang good at finding G-league-like guys that can contribute, like Vincent and Struss on the Finals run with Jimmy.
G Leaguers aren’t developed overnight.
Did you forget Gardner and your boy Goldin? That’s two for this year already been marinating in the system. More will continue to get seasoned and make their way up.
Vlad is hfl’s guy. Gardner can be a good rotation guy, maybe our version of Alvarado 😆. I think there will be some decent leftovers from the draft. Plus, if as mentioned, they buy their way back into the second round, which wouldn’t cost too much, they can get some good players there. Heat also have a useable exception. Do I think they can put enough pieces together to compete? Yes.
I’m not sure they would have to give up this years second, but what do I know. I do know there are only so many picks a team can make and stash, so it would seem they would be focused on getting 1sts. It’s also why it seems the Heat are working out more 2nd round prospects so far.
Good observation
Compete for what…a playoff spot or an NBA Championship? If its just a playoff spot, it isn’t worth the players and the picks Miami would give away.
Guarantee me Miami will be able to go toe-to-toe with New York, Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Denver, Lakers and rebuilding teams such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Toronto and Houston and I might get on the Giannis bandwagon. Guaranteeing the Heat will be able to compete with San Antonio and OKC is an entirely different matters.
As per several recent comments I’ve made, if they get Giannis and don’t win a championship, it’s a failure.
I agree. That’s the whole point of trading for him. It’s not to feed Riley’s damaged ego for not making the playoffs. If he can put a true contender together, more power to him. If not, you know how I feel.
do u not like watching a top 3 player night after night.u get giannis this heat fan gonna be very happy 82 times a year.f the ty bam bs already we need a face lift.im ready for at least 5 new players in the rotation next year
Try reading some of my comments.
I wonder if Gardner could start some day. when watching those OKC and SA players complementing stars, seems to me that are all of Gardners type.
Strong, scrappy, good defender, solid scorers. Its seems to me that Gardner has more talent then many successful g league Heat players, like Dunc, Strus, airplane mode and others. Or at least he is a prototype of a modern player.
yeah they all look like gardners opportunity not given by dumbot ,kids a dawg types of players that help get u jewelry.one fn stubborn coach
gs have little impact in jewelry.struss duncs vincents of the world hardly the reason we almost wona chip.there was a guy acquired from another team for whatever reason quit on us who impacted winning the way wemby and sga are doing it now
Tell that to former G league player Caruso, smh with these generalizations
With cheap free agents, new G Leaguers and no draft picks? What years were those?
ring chasers come cheap ill play for 100,000 to get a chance to meet rc in july
I already assembled a good team in the thread from a few days ago. Go look at the top 70 FA list and how much they made and we could reasonably afford. You can assemble a very good team around G, Bam and the guys left after the trade. I hope you enjoy the exercise as much as I did.
It’ll be great to see Beasley and Chalmers again.