Hanifan’s offseason outlook: Evaluating the Houston Rockets’ 2026 offseason

Houston Rockets Offseason — (Photo courtesy of the NBA)

The calendar has turned to September. You know what that means, right?! Our offseason outlook series is back for the third-straight year!

Hot Hot Hoops senior writer Matt Hanifan will provide his take on the offseasons of all 30 teams for the next 30 days! We will be going in alphabetical order, beginning with the Eastern Conference. Let’s look at the Houston Rockets’ summer!

Previous offseason outlooks:

Evaluating the Houston Rockets’ 2026 offseason:

Additions: Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Subtractions: Dorian Finney-Smith, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday

Re-signed: Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate, Tari Eason

Draft: Bruce Thornton (No. 31 overall)

Hanifan’s outlook: I thought the Rockets were one creator away heading into 2025-26, and I thought they were well on their way to competing in a loaded Western Conference after acquiring Kevin Durant without consolidating any of their main core pieces.

I was wrong. Despite finishing No. 8 in offense, Fred VanVleet’s absence stung in the halfcourt. Durant was phenomenal, but Houston couldn’t generate consistent offense from Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. or Alperen Sengun. The Rockets were No. 17 in effective field goal percentage, No. 19 in true shooting percentage and No. 27 in turnover percentage.

Houston was also hurt by Steven Adams’ midseason injury, as its rebounding metrics fell off the map, thinning the margin for error. Evidently, the Rockets were eliminated in the first round for the second straight season. As bold as Rafael Stone tends to be, the Rockets elected to improve slightly around the margins with Smart and Bogdanovic, instead of swinging big for another star like Antetokounmpo. They also extended Thompson one offseason after paying both Sengun and Smith, so their cap sheet will be quite clogged with VanVleet entering free agency next offseason.

Adding Smart was a good move, but I didn’t love the rest of their summer. Their shooting — or lack thereof — still makes me nervous, although I am confident that VanVleet will get this train back on the tracks in the halfcourt, where his decision-making is vital.