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What’s gone wrong for the Miami Heat after 3 losses?

Miami Heat Giannis Bam
(Mandatory Credit: Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

The Miami Heat are still searching for their first win of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era.

The Miami Heat concluded the first five days of action as one of four winless teams in the East — and one of seven across the NBA at 0-3. This marks the first time the franchise has started 0-3 since the 2007-08 season, when they won 15 games.

Better yet, the Heat have the NBA’s worst point differential at minus-47 — three points worse than the lowly Sacramento Kings, seven points worse than the Chicago Bulls and nine worse than the Brooklyn Nets.

That’s never good company to be in. Sure, teams have crawled out of a 0-3 hole and been successful. But only 11 teams in NBA History have made the postseason after going 0-3 with a minus-45-point differential or worse, the last being the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017-18. Only one of those teams (1977-78 Supersonics) even made the conference finals (Supersonics made the NBA Finals).

So what’s wrong with the Heat? And is this already calamitous start even salvageable? Let’s examine!

Heat’s shooters are colder than Antarctica:

While the Heat have done a decent job creating open looks, they have had a difficult time converting them. Heading into Sunday, the Heat owned the 10th-worst 3-point percentage at 30.3 percent. But they had the ninth-worst 3-point percentage on open threes — which the NBA categories as looks when the closest defender is between 4-6 feet — at 26.8 percent. On wide-open attempts (6+ feet), they had the 12th-worst at 31.0 percent.

They were T-17 on open 3PA and No. 9 on wide-open 3PA per game, respectively. But they made a combined 29.2 percent. That’s not good enough. And several of the culprits are supposed to be their best shooters:

  • Klay Thompson: 31.3 percent (5-16)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr.: 20.0 percent (3-15)
  • Andrew Wiggins: 10.0 percent (1-10)
  • Pelle Larsson: 25.0 percent (2-8)
  • Bam Adebayo: 23.1 percent (3-13)

This is spacing suicide. Antetokounmpo has been tasked with doing arguably too much initiating offensively, and if his shooters can’t knock down the open looks he or someone else delivers, it becomes a wasted opportunity. Too many wasted opportunities eventually bleed into the team’s psyche, affecting both ends of the floor. And that can’t be the case. But that’s, unfortunately, where they’re at right now.

Poor effort on glass:

“No rebounds, no rings.” — Pat Riley

Well, the Heat aren’t rebounding, and they aren’t winning any games. Coincidence? I think not.

Through three games, the Heat have the 10th-worst defensive rebound percentage and the third-worst total rebound percentage. They are also surrendering the ninth-most second-chance points per possession.

Miami has had at least one of Antetokounmpo and Adebayo on the floor at all times. Antetokounmpo has always been a great rebounder, while Adebayo has long been one of the league’s most impactful defensive rebounders. The Heat also have Bobby Portis, who ignited their fourth-quarter comeback attempt Saturday.

The Heat’s effort on the defensive glass has been poor, though. There’s no four or five bodies swarming each and every rebound; there’s a slew of lackadaisical boxouts and too much ball watching.

Heat’s two-best players don’t look in sync:

This was to be expected — but nobody expected it to look as rough as it has.

Antetokounmpo and Adebayo look nowhere near jelled. They are still trying to develop chemistry both offensively and defensively. Through three games, they are a minus-40 when they share the floor together, compared to a minus-15 with either — but not both — on the floor, according to PBP Stats.

The most alarming thing is neither has looked great defensively when they’re together. Offensively, those struggles make sense. Defensively, the Heat are playing an odd amount of drop with both together — and neither has provided enough resistance, at least relative to expectations.

They’re not guarding anyone:

On the topic of defense: Collectively, it looks like a mess.

This early into the season, I think head coach Erik Spoelstra is tinkering with different schemes. He’s played a steady dose of the aforementioned drop, he’s had them switch, he’s had them switch; he’s even sprinkled in some hedge-and-recover. He’s trying to figure out what works.

Currently, Miami has the third-worst defensive rating. That’s not going to fly. I think the team’s rapid pace factors into some of that, although their three opponents are making a ridiculous amount of threes. The Heat lead the league in 3-point makes allowed and opponents’ 3-point percentage. Opponents are also shooting over 50 percent (13-25) on tight- and very-tight threes. The belle of the ball was Grayson Allen’s ridiculous four-point play on Saturday.

Though the Heat are still having struggles at the point-of-attack. Tim Hardaway Jr. can’t guard a traffic cone, and so far, neither has Klay Thompson. The Heat are playing too fast in the halfcourt, but if they won’t guard, they won’t be able to create easy offense in transition with the torrid pace they want to adapt.

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