The Miami Heat entered Friday with the possibility of moving up to No. 12 in odds for the 2026 NBA Draft lottery. But that open door has now been slammed shut.
As a result of the Phoenix Suns’ 111-96 win over the Golden State Warriors, the Heat officially own the 13th-best lottery odds ahead of draft night — only ahead of the Charlotte Hornets, who eliminated them last week.
What are the Miami Heat’s odds of earning each pick?:
With Miami owning the 13th-best odds, they are only eligible to land six picks ahead of the draft. Here are their odds of earning each:
- No. 14 pick: 2.3 percent
- No. 13: 92.9 percent
- No. 4: 1.4 percent
- No. 3: 1.2 percent
- No. 2: 1.1 percent
- No. 1: 1.0 percent
As a result, Miami has just a 4.7 percent chance of earning a top-4 pick in the upcoming draft. Comparatively, if they moved up to No. 12, they would have had a 7.2 percent chance at a top-4 pick; that’s a 53 percent increase just for one spot, which is fairly significant.
The Heat have never moved up in the draft lottery in 11 previous lotteries. They have moved down six times, including multiple spots just twice (1989, 1991).
How this draft class benefits Heat:
The top of the draft — spearheaded by AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer — is loaded. But this class has a surplus of quality guards and wings, which the Heat needs.
Miami’s biggest need exists in the frontcourt, but they are at least one wing short. They also need more positional size and two-way versatility in the backcourt, which doesn’t exist outside of Kasparas Jakucionis and Pelle Larsson. Norman Powell and Tyler Herro are one-way scoring specialists, while Davion Mitchell and Dru Smith are undersized.
We’re not in the Heat’s war room, so who they may be targeting may be different than what I or others may think. Though what we can all agree on is that they need talent — regardless of the position — and they will have two bites at the apple to infuse more youth into their good-not-great core.
The 2026 draft lottery will be on May 13.
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Well, let’s hope we make an excellent choice, and at thirteen you probably want to choose the best fit for the team, as opposed to the best athlete.
My logic there is that when you go for the best athlete you are looking for the superstar and they are a little less likely to be found at thirteen. Now, if in the improbable event we move up, by all means go for best athlete.,And, again, you look to a balance of both parameters on some level, regardless of pick position.
But, if we do get the thirteenth pick, I do hope we acquire an athletic, 6’10-11”ish forward, a two way player who has already shown some level of an offensive game. That would be, in my opinion, our area of greatest need, with the only caveat being that this comment is made before any old players leave or new players come into the organization. If we lose Andrew, it becomes even more necessary.