If there is one storyline that this season’s Miami Heat has told us, it is that Miami still indeeds ‘run on Duncan’. Duncan Robinson is a core rotation player that has been around for several years.
He is the franchise’s all time 3 point leader and was inked to a lucrative 5-year 90$ million contract in the summer of 2021.
In today’s league, sharpshooters like Robinson are extremely coveted. Mainly because of the generational talent and shooter of Stephen Curry on the Golden State Warriors, it has influenced lots of teams to value shooting a lot more.
However, Robinson struggled heavily to back up that hefty contract over the last couple regular seasons.
In the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, Robinson went from a starter to a bench player to a player that wouldn’t even see any bit of playing time. Injuries over the years have helped carve out another role again for Robinson, giving him some much needed opportunity to showcase what he could do.
He has always been a super solid playoff performer, even amid being in and out of the rotation. There has been some elite shooting performances from him over the years on the NBA’s biggest stage.
Last year’s playoff run was different though for Robinson. With both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo suffering season ending injuries, Robinson found himself part of the everyday rotation again when it mattered most.
What has shocked a lot of Heat fans from last season in the playoffs specifically, is that Robinson has put in the work behind the scenes to develop into a much more well rounded player.
There were glimpses of him being able to put the ball down on the floor and attack the rim. He showcased the ability to not just finish himself but also play make for others, whether it was lobs to guys like Bam Adebayo or dribble hand offs.
The hand off chemistry between Adebayo and Robinson has become beautiful to watch over the years.
Robinson also was making all the right passes and feeds, along with cutting, slashing and moving very impressively without the ball in his hands.
Maybe the most important thing to note is the improved defense. He has been able to hold his own pretty well on that end.
It is clear Robinson worked hard off the court to develop his game more, and it is still paying off to this very day.
Robinson started this current 2023-2024 season solid off the bench, picking up right where he left off in the playoffs prior. Now, though, with Herro suffering a minor ankle injury it has given Robinson yet another opportunity for more playing time. He has filled in as the starting SG in Herro’s place ever since he went down with the injury.
In the last 3 wins, as a starter Robinson has put up:
– 26 PTS, 6 3P, 4 FTM (W vs Spurs)
– 18 PTS, 4 3P, 2 FTM (W vs Hornets)
– 26 PTS, 4 3P, 6 FTM (W vs Nets)
Shooting 51/52/100% in that span (via StatMuse)
In the Heat’s 7-game winning streak Duncan Robinson is averaging 17.1 points, 3.4 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 48.2% FG, 41.1% 3PT, and 93% FT in 33.3 minutes a game. (via @statmuse) pic.twitter.com/V38vXj4Hkd
— Naveen Ganglani (@naveenganglani) November 17, 2023
It is very encouraging to see Robinson fill up the stat sheet like this but also doing it while being super efficient. In the San Antonio Spurs win a week ago, he was a team high +22 on the floor.
He has just been so impactful, and the best part of Pat Riley always “running it back” is witnessing the development and progression from this core. Whether it’s from the big three of Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Herro or from supporting cast guys like Robinson.
It is huge for coach Spoelstra to have a young vet like him to be able to plug in as a starter when needed but also be reliable off the bench and never complain no matter what the role is.
He has been a supreme professional in his 6 year Miami Heat career, going back to his rookie season in 2018-2019.
No matter what his role is on this team, whether it’s a fill-in starter or bench player, he will be an integral part to what Miami does long term at 29 years old now.
Duncan Robinson is a prime example of a guy who “stays ready” so he doesn’t have to “get ready”.
Patience is a virtue.
Duncan’s story is wonderful. Not many players can do what he has done, make marked improvements in his skill sets.
Big 3.. bam, Jimmy and Dunc.
Max Strus vs Duncan Robinson (Shooting Comparisons)
PPG: Max 14.6 Duncan 14.3
FG% Max 43.2% Duncan 46.3%
3PT% Max 36.2% Duncan 38.9%
2PT% Max 43.2% Duncan 61.4%
MPG: Max 35.4 Duncan 29.3
The Heat didn’t lose a Max, they gained a Duncan.
Gabe Vincent vs Josh Richardson Comparison
PPG: Gabe 6.0, JRich 7.4
3pt% Gabe 7.1%, JRich 30.3
RPG Gabe 1 JRich 2.6
APG Gabe 3 JRich 2.8
MPG Gabe 28.3 JRich 25.0
The Heat didn’t lose a Gabe, they gained a JRich.
I can’t believe Gabe Vincent shot 7.1% from beyond the arc.
Still needs cornrows.
Not that long ago I was hoping Miami would dump Duncan and his contract for anything or anyone they could get in return. He had underperformed for two years and seemed to be a “one trick pony” whose one trick was no longer working. In the NBA, as in life, it is necessary to “evolve or die.” Those who cannot evolve become stuck in the mud, unable to move forward, while the world passes them by. Duncan’s inability to perform in multiple areas (defense, mid-range shooting, creating his own shots, driving into the paint/drawing fouls, playmaking, etc.) was impacting the one one trick he could perform (three point shooting). For the past two seasons, he was stuck in the mud, while his value as a player was quickly declining.
At some point, the light went on for Duncan that he might never be the most athletic or physically gifted athlete in the NBA, but he was capable of working hard to improve his skills, as he had with his three point shooting. There is no doubt Duncan has worked very hard to improve as an NBA player. This season, he looks physically stronger, more focused and aggressive defensively, more willing to pass up contested three point shots and drive and shoot or pass to open teammates. It is very apparent he is more confident and a much happier person. His confidence isn’t the confidence of 2020 of an undrafted project who had been given an opportunity to play in the NBA because of his gift of a three point shot. His newfound confidence is that of a player who has earned his position because of his determination, hard work and ability to become a more well rounded player.
Duncan is currently averaging 14.3 ppg and is the fourth highest scorer on the team. He is shooting FGs at a 46.3% and three point shots at 38.9% clips. His ability to drive and create his own shots has improved considerably, as has his defense. He is no longer an easy target on defense. His overall game is much better than it ever was in the past.
Whether Duncan continues as a starter or as a rotation player off the bench, he is no longer part of the team’s problems, but he is part of the solution. A lot of credit goes to the Miami Heat culture and development system. A lot of credit goes to Spo and the coaching staff who never gave up on him. But the biggest share of the credit goes to Duncan. He perservered and never gave up. With his confidence, skills and determination, I hope he stays around for a long, long time. Great job Duncan!
GO HEAT!!!
Kudos! I do my best to be fair and objective. I’ve been one of the handful of Duncan supporters even when his play was down. However, I felt that the contract was a massive mistake by Riley and that he wasn’t worth 25% of the money he was making. Until last playoffs, I also considered him a one trick pony who was picked on mercilessly by opponents. You could count on him picking up 1 or 2 careless fouls in the first couple of minutes he was on the court. I looked at many trade scenarios where the Heat could throw him in to simply match the salaries, and felt we’d have to ‘bribe’ the other team with sweeteners just to get rid of him. I was pleasantly surprised to see a ‘new’(er) Duncan in the playoffs. I argued in the offseason that losing Strus was a wash because Duncan was a very similar player. But he has surpassed every expectation I could have had, to the point where I feel he needs to remain in the starting lineup. I’m very happy for him!
Ironically, if push comes to shove, I think Herro is more expendable than Duncan, if the right deal comes along.
Herro, Martin, ORobinson* and Jovic (or a pick) for Caruso and DeRozan works for me. * Eligible for trade on December 15th.
Caruso, DeRozan, Butler, Highsmith, Bam
Lowry, Richardson, Duncan, Jaquez, Love
Smith, Hampton, Swider, Cain, Bryant
I would swap Lowry and Caruso in this case.
Lowry, Martin and Jovic (or pick) works on paper. Chicago can find better deal elsewhere (including Lakers, where Caruso prefers to go).
I meant I agree with the trade, but I would swap Caruso with Lowry in starting lineup.
I wouldn’t do that trade for the simple fact that derozan isn’t a good 3pt shooter. Herro is our 2nd best shooter currently and also leads are team with 2 steals a game. Also Martin is another one of our good 3 point shooters and was a 40 percent 3 point shooter or near that mark last year. With that trade we’re sacrificing too much 3pt shooting. For what a lil bit better defense, more mid range, and less 3s. If you gonna do a trade package involving herro, then I think we deserve something a lil bit better then that in my opinion.
Very happy for Duncan. His expanded game no doubt is a testament to his hardwork. Hope the Heat keeps him and ignore those calls to trade him.
Duncan has been Amazing this year, and will only get better. Imagine when he gets a consistent mid-range game going, he will then become a 3 level scorer. Also his added strength and muscle will help with his 6’8 frame to become a decent multipositional defender. Also to his credit..he’s become disciplined and not unnecessarily fouling as much as he used to, as stated in his post game interview. Not bad for a former one trick pony.