In today’s NBA, how you allocate your funds has never been more important. The Miami Heat are realizing that, as well as the rest of the NBA.
The Boston Celtics, less than one calendar year removed from winning the NBA Title, are looking to shed salary (Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis) to potentially get out of the luxury tax, even before Jayson Tatum (unfortunately) tore his achilles in the Celtics’ second-round series against the Knicks. The Phoenix Suns can’t trade Bradley Beal and won’t trade Devin Booker, leaving Kevin Durant (and his $54.7 million) as the odd man out; the Cleveland Cavaliers, who locked themselves into a 2-3-year window, could look to consolidate guard Darius Garland this summer.
This isn’t just an issue the Heat are dealing with. However, as they enter this new build with Bam Adebayo already on a max contract, they face an important decision regarding guard Tyler Herro, who will become eligible to sign a three-year, $149.7 million extension in October.
And if they don’t choose to extend him, they must learn an important lesson from the botched Jimmy Butler extension last summer.
Heat must consider trading Tyler Herro if they won’t extend him:
Herro, 25, had the best single season of his career in 2024-25, amid all the turmoil endured during the season. He averaged 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on 47.2 percent shooting, including 37.5 percent from 3-point range and 87.8 percent from the free-throw line. Herro modified his shot diet, finishing sixth in made 3-pointers (251), appearing in 77 of 82 games, the first time in his career that the sixth-year pro has played in more than 67 games.
However, should Herro sign an extension, would be $46.2M, $48.9M and $53.6 million, respectively, allocating for at least 23.5 percent of the cap in each season. Thus, Herro and Adebayo would allocate for 49.4, 53.7 and 53 percent of the cap through 2029 if the 6-foot-5 guard signs the full max allotted ($150 million); assuming his extension averages $40 million per year flat, they would allocate for roughly 50 percent of the cap in 2027-28 and 49 percent in 2028-29, the final year of Adebayo’s deal.
That’s a lot to delegate to two star players, neither of whom is considered a true “No. 1” option. Adebayo’s an all-world defender who’s the quintessential embodiment of what #HEATCultureâ„¢ represents. Herro’s been flushed into trade rumors since he was a rookie, but has improved each season, earning his first All-Star appearance last February.
However, we’ve seen Adebayo become a true No. 2 option on a title contender multiple times. We haven’t seen Herro be a true No. 2 or 3, respectfully. The former is also consistently available, providing legitimate two-way value at an All-NBA level; we can’t say the same about the latter.
Should the Heat decide not to extend Herro, coming off yet another disappointing postseason as a lead guard, they should consider trying to sell “high” (depending on how you feel about where his value is after his disastrous playoffs). He’s never been healthier nor has he been more efficient; Herro’s 60.5 true shooting percentage was his highest by 3.9 percentage points, while his 56.3 effective field goal percentage was the highest by 3.2 points.
Of course, you don’t trade Herro just to trade him. You have to find the right deal; you have to find a viable suitor who wants to extend the 6-foot-5 guard for at least $35-40 million per year as a second option (at best) if you’re not willing to.
Miami also doesn’t have to extend the Kentucky alum this offseason. It has an extra year to buy relative to Butler’s extension last offseason, but can the Heat not risk capitalizing on this opportunity to sell high when Herro has missed at least 20 percent of his team’s games in three of his prior five seasons before 2024-25?
Locking Herro and Adebayo into large contracts in this second-apron era could have serious consequences for the Heat, and they stumbled into a perfect opportunity to cash in, if they choose to take that route, and replenish their scarce treasure chest of assets.
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Things are kind of slow around DogBone tonight so I was sitting here thinking about the future.
I’m feeling positive about the progress our younger players will make by next season.
Beyond that, if Riley handles the team’s assets appropriately and shops wisely, I can see the Heat putting a competitive team on the floor by 2026-2027 and an elite team on the floor by 2027-2028.
Tyler doesn’t deserve a max. Yes he has improved but not to a level he can carry the Heat consistently going toe to toe with elite teams. But I don’t agree with the narrative of “making the wrong move ala Butler” that the blame entirely falls (coz it sounds like it) on Heat fo. The employee did not keep his end of the bargain. Simply put it he did not perform as per contract. Butler drama was different but yes could happen again. But this Tyler issue is quite different in a way he hasn’t carried this team in the playoffs like Jimmy did that earned him big $$. But sadly concluded in a bad ending. If Tyler is moved so be it, if extended I believe not that big $$ to make room for more improvements.
i hope him and dunc are not with us anymore.cant defend hard to play in this league unless your name ends in ic
I agree. Herro is not worth the max. If he is the only one-way player in the rotation, surrounded by very strong defenders, that might work. Otherwise, he is currently a weak link that opposing teams can and do exploit.
The worst defenders on the team, in my opinion, are Herro, Rozier and Robinson. I believe the very good and good defenders on the team are Bam, Ware, Mitchell (if he is re-signed), Wiggins, Smith and Johnson (although the last two have very small sample sizes). While most of the rest are slightly below average to slightly above average. Jovic Jaquez and Larsson have the potential to become good defenders.
In restructuring the team, Riley should make every effort to have a first unit with players who are all good to very good defenders. To the extent possible, the second unit should be composed of good to very good defenders as well. What that means is getting rid of average to below average defenders and focusing on drafting, trading for and/or recruiting free agent players who are good defenders and are or have the potential to be good/very good offensive players.
The first order of business should be to trade or buy out Robinson before his contract becomes fully guaranteed on July 8th.
The second order of business should be to identify players who are definitely not part of Miami’s long term plans (I would include Herro, Robinson and Rozier in that group) and look at possible trade alternatives, including draft picks (first and second round), cash or younger players with growth potential.
The third order of business, over the course of the season, is to attempt to develop a solid rotation that includes good defensive players.
Finally, if there are not good trades available for players on expiring contracts either before the season or by the trade deadline, Miami should keep them until the end of the season when they come off the payroll. I’m confident Miami can get a good haul of players and draft picks for Herro.
P.S. Miami should draft a good/very good defensive player with the 20th pick, regardless of the position they are targeting.
The problem is that Herro is Heats best offensive player, and among the best in the league. And Miami is one of the worst scoring teams already.
Miami is ranked #9 in defense (112.9 ppg) and # 21 in offense (113.5 ppg). It is #13 in point differential (points scored vs points allowed) which is 0.60 ppg. The top NBA teams have point differentials of 3.30 – 12.87 ppg.
Right now, Miami has several problems that need to be addressed before the team can be considered competitive, much less elite. This includes significant improvement on both sides of the ball and the departure of players who on expiring contracts and players who are offensive or defensive liabilities (one-way players).
Probably. But still, trading Herro will require to get at least two good scorers somehow, to fix the offence.
problem is he lets as many pts in as he scores.need him gone vagi players like herro and dunc dont impact winning.
I would say that those two players don’t impact winning enough.
And the fo has spoken…Pat you should hire this guy 😀
amen
We all have different opinions on how Miami should approach this summer and next season.
Some want the Heat to recruit a ss before the season starts, whatever the cost and whoever it takes. All players would be expendable, if it means bringing in a ss.
Some want Riley to retire or otherwise be terminated and a younger executive brought in who is more in tune with the times.
Some want the team to take a wait and see approach by playing the season out with basically the same personnel to determine which players should be part of the team’s longer range plans. Furthermore, it would give the younger players, (such as Johnson, Jaquez, Jovic, Larsson and the 2025 pick) the opportunity to gain experience while waiting for the expiring contracts to come off the books.
All of the ideas and opinions are valid. It will be interesting to see in which direction Miami decides to go. Following are articles that address some of these issues.
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Miami Heat Urged To Take Offseason Ahead of 2026 Free Agency
https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/miami_heat_urged_to_take_gap_offseason_ahead_of_2026_free_agency/s1_16619_42304823
******************************************************************************************************Heat should move on from Pat Riley if he can’t deliver this immediately
It may be time for the Heat to move on from Pat Riley.
https://allucanheat.com/heat-should-move-on-pat-riley-cant-deliver-this-immediately?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email&sc=e0273490fd355e2c28bdb25751d41af65a4dd80936ff00a80be9866c97887955
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Should be traded before getting that kind of money from a team like Mia, sorry not sorry. Him and bam taking up 50% of cap space whilst neither is a true superstar 1a b or c player hell no…..sign him to that contract and it’s purgatory until both of those contracts are done
Herro must be traded for a better player, or not traded at all.