There’s no sugarcoating it: The Miami Heat have been mediocre each of the last three seasons.
In fact, with the exception of one historically great playoff run in 2023 that nobody predicted nor could’ve predicted, they’ve been a smidge above .500 (127-119) in the regular season and just 1-8 in the postseason. Yikes!
Not to mention, one of those postseason exits was in historical fashion … in a humiliating way!
The franchise had a tumultuous 2024-25 season, going 37-45, their worst record since the first year without the Big 3 in 2014-15 — when it also went 37-45. Now, they are looking to rebound in their first full season without Jimmy Butler since 2018-19.
While they had a reasonably productive offseason in a weakened Eastern Conference — where the Celtics and Pacers will be without their two best players — ESPN is predicting much of the same for Miami.
ESPN predicts Heat finish as play-in team for fourth-straight year:
One month out from training camp, ESPN’s NBA staff cobbled together their projections for the upcoming season, including their award picks plus their standings predictions.
Spoiler alert: They expect little improvement from the Heat, who they have finishing 39-43 as the No. 9 seed in the East.
“If the landscape of the East has been altered entering this season, it’s largely due to the injuries and departures of stars,” ESPN’s Jamal Collier wrote. “The Heat won the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. … The teams in this group all enter the season with major question marks that put them below the elite teams in this conference.”
ESPN has the Heat finishing below the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers — while finishing with as many wins as the Haliburton-less Pacers.
Depending on where you looked, sportsbooks opened the Heat’s win total at either 36.5 or 37.5. The market has since moved to either 38.5 or 39.5. Nevertheless, the jury is out on much improvement heading into 2025-26.
Miami acquired Norman Powell in early July, in addition to Simone Fontecchio (Duncan Robinson sign-and-trade) and rookie Kasparas Jakucionis. I think you can argue the Heat have improved. I think you can also argue that they’ll surpass 40 wins and be a top-8 seed.
But hey, we’re all optimistic (to some degree) at this time of the year!
Conversely, you can argue that they’re stuck in quicksand, despite the (slight?) transition of going young. You can argue they’re still as mediocre as they were four months ago.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Miami was a tirefire post-deadline. But the one saving grace is that every team starts 0-1 and it has the ingredients of being slightly more pesky. But wins aren’t rewarded to the team that’s the most pesky, even they’ve drifted away from that.
They’re rewarded to teams that scores the most points, and Miami’s been a bottom-third offense each of the last three seasons. Score points, please!
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Miami is stuck in the “no man’s land” of mediocrity. One foot in the play-in and the other in the lottery. This team can, at best, be respectable. At worst, with a couple of injuries or “off years” it could be a lottery team.
Miami could use a SS, a PG and a combo PF/C.
Step #1: Explore possible trades to bring in a very good (all-star caliber) PG
Step #2: Explore possible trade options for bringing in a solid PF/C
Step #3: Use 2025-2026 to allow players on rookie contracts to develop, to evaluate team’s existing talent, including which players to trade, extend or allow to walk away when their contracts expire.
Step #4: Identify players the team is willing to trade in 2026-2027 to bring in a SS.
Note: If the PG (Step #1) turns out to be a SS, all the better.
Heat love play in. We are the best play in team ever! 🙂
“If you can’t be an athlete, be an athletic supporter.”
~ Principal McGee” (Grease1978) ~
I see this prediction as pretty spot on, maybe I see us winning three more games if no further changes ensue. Hope springs eternal and the tendency is towards optimism on this site and out in the world. I wish things worked out as well as we always hope they will.
But, there is a positive way to view these predictions and that is that no one thinks we are going to be lousy, and that recognizes a decent amount of talent on this team. I do hope these assessments spur the front office to make at least one more significant move and another minor one to acquire a backup big man. A mantra of never tanking does not mean accepting mediocrity either. If we are truly never tankers, let’s complete the job and make this team truly competitive.
One of the best things about the NBA is that if you are close enough, adding one more significant upgrade can have a huge impact.
I believe we are not that far away and making those extra moves will pay off significantly.
ESPN is going with conventional wisdom, but that’s going to be wrong this year. The Heat will look like a totally different team with a complete offseason and camp to develop this roster cohesively.
Going young means the regular season will matter again to the Heat, and that’s a good thing for playoff position. Playoff Jimmy was a good joke, but bad for seeding, clearly.
Murphy’s law defeated the Miami Heat last year. Last year’s disaster was a combination of Jimmy’s shenanigans, plus Terry’s unexpected dropoff post-neck injury, and the radical re-ordering of the roster midseason with Jovic’s injury.
This year will be different. Better, I’d imagine.
We’ll know how well this version of the Heat performs after their first 23 games. Other than Charlotte and Chicago, all the other teams are potential playoff teams.
ESPN ARE 🤡S FOLKS THAT AGREE ARE TOO