Comparing the possible packages from Heat, Trail Blazers for Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat Portland Trail Blazers — If the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers are the last two standing for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the latter supersedes the former. (Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images)

We are three weeks away from the 2026 NBA Draft, where the Miami Heat own two picks: No. 13 and No. 41 overall. Most importantly, it marks the Milwaukee Bucks’ self-imposed deadline to trade two-time MVP and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. At the time of this publishing, all indications point to that happening. Though it remains to be seen which suitors the 10-time All-Star truly desires (teams he’ll re-sign with).

Among those teams that will be interested, however, include the Miami Heat. However, there appears to be serious interest from the Portland Trail Blazers. In the hypothetical scenario where both are the last two standing, which team would have the better offer? Let’s examine!

(Editor’s note: These aforementioned offers are rough drafts. For the sake of this exercise, to simplify things, we are not including 1.) Multiple teams or 2.) additional Bucks going back in return.)

What can Trail Blazers trade?:

You can argue the Trail Blazers are operating at a position of strength. They can send the Bucks all three of their first-round picks (2028, ’30 swaps, ’29 FRP) back if they choose to, and can also trade up to two more firsts (2031, 2033). They also have a stronger collection of young players, led by Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara. I think it’s highly unlikely they would trade Deni Avdija, so for the sake of this exercise, here are three possible packages the Blazers could send out without including him (pending subsequent moves for roster compliance purposes):

Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara and Scoot Henderson; 2028 swap (via MIL), 2030 swap (via MIL) and 2032 FRP
Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Yang Hansen; 2028 swap (via MIL), 2029 FRP (via MIL), 2031 and 2033 FRPs (plus multiple seconds)
Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Yang Hansen; 2029 (via MIL), 2031 and 2033 FRPs

What can Heat trade?:

The Heat have an OK package relative to what most teams can offer, given their asset pool and the fact that they don’t own any additional first-round picks beyond their own. Here are three possible packages from them for Antetokounmpo (pending subsequent moves for roster compliance purposes):

Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Davion Mitchell; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033
Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larsson; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033
Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Davion Mitchell and Pelle Larsson; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033

Why Portland has edge, although it’s up to Giannis in the end:

At the end of the day, Giannis Antetokounmpo will dictate his own market. He remains steadfast in his desire to spend his whole career with one organization, but the Bucks’ recent incompetence — due to their desperation — has clouded the skies.

If there was a hypothetical bidding war, the Blazers’ package tops the Heat’s pretty handily. They have a better collection of young assets and picks, although building a contender would be more arduous in a loaded Western Conference. The Heat wouldn’t have the future flexibility, but would have an easier path in the East. There’s a trade-off.

If I were Antetokounmpo, I also wouldn’t want to go to a new ownership group that wants to cut costs at every turn. Don’t try to sell me a competitive atmosphere while laying off a “significant” number of team employees, withholding travel for two-way players (teammates!) and even threatening relocation.