We are three weeks away from the 2026 NBA Draft, where the Miami Heat own two picks: No. 13 and No. 41 overall. Most importantly, it marks the Milwaukee Bucks’ self-imposed deadline to trade two-time MVP and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. At the time of this publishing, all indications point to that happening. Though it remains to be seen which suitors the 10-time All-Star truly desires (teams he’ll re-sign with).
Among those teams that will be interested, however, include the Miami Heat. However, there appears to be serious interest from the Portland Trail Blazers. In the hypothetical scenario where both are the last two standing, which team would have the better offer? Let’s examine!
(Editor’s note: These aforementioned offers are rough drafts. For the sake of this exercise, to simplify things, we are not including 1.) Multiple teams or 2.) additional Bucks going back in return.)
What can Trail Blazers trade?:
You can argue the Trail Blazers are operating at a position of strength. They can send the Bucks all three of their first-round picks (2028, ’30 swaps, ’29 FRP) back if they choose to, and can also trade up to two more firsts (2031, 2033). They also have a stronger collection of young players, led by Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara. I think it’s highly unlikely they would trade Deni Avdija, so for the sake of this exercise, here are three possible packages the Blazers could send out without including him (pending subsequent moves for roster compliance purposes):
- Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara and Scoot Henderson; 2028 swap (via MIL), 2030 swap (via MIL) and 2032 FRP
- Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Yang Hansen; 2028 swap (via MIL), 2029 FRP (via MIL), 2031 and 2033 FRPs (plus multiple seconds)
- Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Yang Hansen; 2029 (via MIL), 2031 and 2033 FRPs
What can Heat trade?:
The Heat have an OK package relative to what most teams can offer, given their asset pool and the fact that they don’t own any additional first-round picks beyond their own. Here are three possible packages from them for Antetokounmpo (pending subsequent moves for roster compliance purposes):
- Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Davion Mitchell; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033
- Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larsson; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033
- Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Davion Mitchell and Pelle Larsson; first-round picks in 2026, 2031 and 2033
Why Portland has edge, although it’s up to Giannis in the end:
At the end of the day, Giannis Antetokounmpo will dictate his own market. He remains steadfast in his desire to spend his whole career with one organization, but the Bucks’ recent incompetence — due to their desperation — has clouded the skies.
If there was a hypothetical bidding war, the Blazers’ package tops the Heat’s pretty handily. They have a better collection of young assets and picks, although building a contender would be more arduous in a loaded Western Conference. The Heat wouldn’t have the future flexibility, but would have an easier path in the East. There’s a trade-off.
If I were Antetokounmpo, I also wouldn’t want to go to a new ownership group that wants to cut costs at every turn. Don’t try to sell me a competitive atmosphere while laying off a “significant” number of team employees, withholding travel for two-way players (teammates!) and even threatening relocation.
But that’s neither here nor there.
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rick adelman passing what a bummer only 79.think him and spo were tight
RIP
Giannis has a wife and 4 kids. Oregon has a 9.9% income tax on couples earning over $250k. He’s not going to Portland.
True. That’s a big bite.
There is a difference of how Europeans and Americans look at taxes. For Europeans, we are used to pay taxes, some even think that that’s not such a bad thing.
I m quite confident that taxes would be an afterthought for him. For an American player in his place probably not.
Even for a person with a great deal of money, $7 million is still a lot. In Florida, he would save that $7 million.
I doubt that he would go anywhere just to save that money. So props for Miami should be Heat culture, solid team, great franchise, warm weather, Europe is close… and at the far end low taxes.
But probably a lot of American players would go where they dont want to be just to save those 7 mill.
Its a cultural thing, money is important to Americans. Its important to Europeans too, but not as much. Still, managers, accountants, agents. are probably Americans, so they will push him to go where he will earn more, because they will earn more too.
Which is good for Heat.
You’re right Vagi. People find it easy to trade happiness for money. Never satisfied want more.
I respect the players who take team friendly contracts so team can bring in best players possible in pursuit of a title
Brunson is one of them.
Exactly!
It is a lot. But regardless of taxes, I can’t see a single reason why he should prefer Portland over Miami. But it’s a different story for the Bucks, a package with 5 picks is more attractive than 3, naturally.
True, and he likes NY which is also a high tax state. But being on an expiring contract gives him leverage. A team won’t take him if they know he won’t extend with them.
He has a lot of leverage. Milwaukee has nothing to offer him.
The Heat would be giving the Bucks a lottery player (Herro) and 2 players who would be lottery picks in re-drafts (Ware and Jaquez), plus 2-3 first round picks and possibly a couple of pick swaps.
Over in europe y’all get a lot more for your taxes than we do stateside. Like a lot lot more. So paying taxes saves you money compared to Americans when it comes to health care, transportation, and in some countries housing too.
I think those things are much better managed in Europa. I heard that a serious injury can bankrupt you in states, if you dont have a good insurance? Unbelievable.
Billionaires and corporations call the shots here, not the people. Profits over people.
It’s called social democracy. Scandinavians with that form of government are among the happiest people in the world. Here it’s called hyper-capitalism with a much greater emphasis on corporate profits/greed than caring for the country’s citizens.
They may be the happiest, but they don’t show that. Getting a smile from those people is a rarity.
Its cuz they don’t want to show off, so they smile to themselves internally.
And, of course, we have all heard this:
Antetokounmpo has identified the Heat as the only team he would be willing to sign a long-term contract extension with if he is traded by the Bucks.
havent heard that.sounds like he wants to come here.get it done pat pelles jjs jacos grow on trees.
Everybody is expendable but the captain. When Herro goes, Bam will be the last of the Mohicans…the last remaining member of the 2020 Finals team. It seems like only yesterday (but it was 6 years ago).
See roster below.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2020.html
Interesting, I didn’t realize that Ty and Bam were the last remaining members of that team.
There’s no way Giannis would want to go to Portland. Why? Because he saw what happened to Dame. Giannis got the chance to talk to Dame when they were playing together and I can’t see him wanting to go there.
Now, true, Bucks could send him anywhere they want, but imagine how that looks to other stars in the NBA. It’s not like Milwaukee is some prime destination.
Since the Dame situation (when Cronin sent him to Milwaukee instead of where he wanted), how many stars want to play in Portland? How many future stars do you think want to play with Cronin’s Blazers?
Let’s go back in time… Since the Kawhi trade from the Spurs where they sent him to Toronto (where he didn’t want to go), how many quality free agents have the Spurs acquired since then not named Lemarcus Aldridge?
You do this kind of stuff and you play with fire. NBA stars hang out and talk to each other.
Well said!
depends whos on said team,fox kornett barnes spurs portland got ardviia.theres guys next year that are gonna want to join wemby okc minn teams ready built for jewelry.greek must like the city of miami i guess
Minn built to choke. Regular season stat and postseason clutch players are entirely different players.
Some players can handle the pressure of the bright lights when everything is on the line, others fold like a cheap suit.
Minnesota beat that team with the best player in the world Jokic. So if they’re chokers to you what’s Miami?
Chokers get to the big dance then fall apart at the worst possible time. Miami can’t even afford the price of admission to the big dance. You can’t choke if you aren’t playing.
maybe the quality of opponent and ant slightly injured ya think
Minn needs a good, two-way, playmaking PG (e.g. Mitchell) and a PF who isn’t a choker, (like Randall). See his regular season vs postseason stats below:
You mean like Riley handled the Butler situation by publicly calling him out then refusing to extend his contract rather than trading him when his value was still high? Riley’s reputation isn’t what it once was. Throwing a bunch of rings on the table no longer impress.
if he did not draft wade oh well he did
While they didn’t win a championship, he brought Zo and Hardaway here. He brought Shaq here. He brought your man Butler here.
ive posted lots times how good pat has been.not last few years rc 80 years old going against 30 year old minds.butler was fantastic for the first four years .no contract to many one wayers on team just flat out quit.f him now..no class.about as classless way to leave a team..hope he quits on gsw next few years
Well, I can name 2 other people who don’t have 30 year old minds.
Butler had a history of being bonehead. But thats a valid point.
Great post
Cronin did Miami a favor and set Milwaukee back when he traded Lillard to Bucks instead of Heat. If Giannis just wants to go somewhere to die, Portland or Sacramento will do the job. Plus, that’s the West, where the path to the Finals is much more difficult. There is no OKC or San Antonio in the East.
Dame+Giannis didn’t make a contending team in the east, why should they make one in the west? Ok, they have Avdija and some good young players, but they would have to give some of them up in the trade. They would be better with Giannis but not contenders and they would basically sacrifice the already started rebuild process.
That is basically the position Miami is in.
portlands prob better than us
Then there’s stuff like this from Heavy:
According to NBA insider Brandon “Scoop B” Robinson, the Heat are the only team Antetokounmpo would consider staying long-term with if he were traded.
Not Utah? Shocker
A recent quote from Giannis per Heat Central and Clutch Points:
”They reached out and said they want to open a restaurant here in Milwaukee. I was like ‘oh, lovely!’ After the games I’ll be able to come eat here….. 2013, I got drafted, I came here to MIL, I’ve been here 13 years with the team and hopefully many more,” said Antetokounmpo.
For a rebuilding team, getting 22 and 23 year old athletic players is a big plus. Adding Camara or Grant doesn’t hurt either. As for Hansen, the jury is out, but not looking good on that stretch of a pick so far.
The draft pick issue is a huge plus for the Heat.
Getting a Wisconsin native like Herro should give Bucks fans someone to root for, and he will give them solid offense. That last Heat package with Mitchell, Ware, and Pelle and a very good player at 13 will give them a fun young team to watch. I think it’s the better package.
What I don’t want the Heat to do is to get involved in a long back and forth negotiation. Put all the cards on the table and make the true best offer. If they don’t want it, move on. Do not repeat the mistakes of the past, waiting the entire summer and coming up empty.
We can give a better package but I think Portland can give more draft picks, possibly 4, if they’re really serious, but I do think they own some of the bucks picks as well.
I’m sure other teams can offer more picks, but, unlike Lillard, Giannis has leverage. And Ragu brought up a good point. Assuming a contract of about $70m per year, he’d be looking at a state tax bite of $7m! That’s a lot of money for anyone.
I think there may be a team or two or more (such as OKC, San Antonio and Boston) sitting back to see where the process goes. Once the best offers are on the table, they may decide to come in and blow the competition away.
If that happens, Riley better have other viable options available. If not, he should be prepared to announce his retirement.
He just has to have a Plan B, C and D ready. Kawhi, Ja, or build through the draft and acquisitions. The good news is that three weeks from today, we should have a much better idea of what’s going on.
If we could squeeze a full healthy season and playoffs with Kawhi that would be fun. I would be terrified of what comes season 2 or 3. But the upcoming season could be a great one in that situation as the Heat would be able to retain more talent, I would think.
The big difference with that is that we would still have most of our players and all or most of our draft picks, so we would not have to rely solely on his health.
Those are not better young players.
Anyway, Bucks will ask for Avdija.
I have the feeling that when all is said and done, there will be a bidding war and the successful team will overpay for him. Some teams can afford to do so more than others. Miami can’t.
Herro, Ware, Mitchell, Larsson, three picks and maybe pick swaps may just be the starting point.
P.S. I wonder why Jaquez wasn’t included in the trade scenarios. It seems Herro, Ware, Jaquez and Larsson or Jakucionis plus 3 picks and two pick swaps would get the job done.
“I have the feeling that when all is said and done, there will be a bidding war and the successful team will overpay for him. Some teams can afford to do so more than others. Miami can’t.“
Ofc that’s what gonna happen, he’s a mvp champion top 5 player when healthy. Every team is gonna inquire about his services as they should. A team I think he’d be good for is Utah
I’m positive he’s signing up to take his fam to Utah.
Never said he was, and it’s not his choice
Correct. Not his choice if Utah wants to do it for one season. Completely his choice to not sign there and walk after one season and become a free agent.
I can see the successful bidder gutting its team (young players and 2026 plus future draft picks) then being unable to field a team able to compete with elite teams. Some exceptions might be teams like OKC, Houston, Boston and New York.
You keep making the assumption that the team immediately after the trade has to be the one. You also bring up Giannis and his pending new contract with new team. So if a guy signs a multi year deal he has to win it in year 1 or it’s a bust? Of course not and you know that. Whichever team Giannis goes to will have a window. It might be smaller at the start. Open wide in the middle. Close at the end. The NBA circle of competitive window life. Something the 76ers know nothing about. Heyooooo gratuitous shot at the 76ers.
The problem I see is that middle part. Miami will need draft picks to improve the team, which will be residing in Milwaukee.
Trading youth, picks and pick swaps for Giannis will be like Cortez burning his ships behind him. All in or all out. If Miami goes all in, the only options will be win it all or fail.
In the same way we didn’t expect the big 3 to win all 4 years (unless hfl was coach, of course), I wouldn’t expect Giannis to win a ring in his first season. But I reasonably think he will bring a 4 year window of contention, and that they need to win at least one ring to consider it a success.
100
The best asset between POR and MIA is the Heat’s #13 pick. The best player is Herro then Camara
Sharpe averaged 20.8 ppg on low efficiency (33.7% 3FG, 51.1EFG%) and was benched vs SAS because of defense.
Scoot had big games vs SAS – 31 and 21 pts in Gm 2 and 3, with 5 3FG made in each – but then scored 5 points combined in Gm 4 and 5. He’s never averaged >42% FG in a season. He, Sharpe and Grant all average less rebounds than Herro.
avdija easily best player not close
Sharpe, Scoot, Grant, Camara are in the proposed trade, none are better than Herro. Only Camara who was 2nd team defense has a case
sorry .herros value is over valued by u what is his playoff resume when he is available.
I see Ware plus Jaquez, Larsson, or Jakucionis as the important parts of the trade and Herro as a filler who can be flipped by the Bucks for assets at the deadline.
It doesn’t matter who we think is better than who it’s about what mil thinks
No Avdija…no trade. Leave Grant and take the canoli.
The sun wins this one.