Coming off a great summer Serbia in EuroBasket 2025, it’s been an uneven start to the 2025-26 NBA Season for Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic.
Jovic received a brand new four-year, $62.4 million extension that won’t kick in until next summer. Through 14 games, he’s averaging 8.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 40.2 percent shooting and 52.4 percent true shooting, six percentage points worse than his career TS% heading into the season.
Outside of one 29-point, nine-rebound, six-assist performance on Nov. 8 against the Portland Trail Blazers, the 6-foot-10 forward hasn’t quite found his footing.
Is it time to feel some buyer’s remorse? According to Bleacher Report’s Zach Buckley, it is.
“They can’t quite call it an A-plus summer, though, because the four-year, $62.4 million extension given to Nikola Jović is already aging like spoiled milk,” Buckley wrote. “Granted, they were paying more for potential than actual production, but even then the numbers were supposed to be better than this: 8.8 points on 40.2/29.4/74.3 shooting.
“And remember, Miami was already absorbing some risk when it made that investment, although the risk was supposed to be regarding availability not on-court performance. So, if his injury problems resurface and his stats don’t recover, this decision will demand a lot of second-guessing.”
Why it’s still too early hit panic button on Nikola Jovic:
It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Jovic after a considerable step forward pre-injury last year.
But he’s also 22-years-old. And as we all know, development is far from linear, especially from those who have had an inconsistent role with just 121 career games under his belt.
Unfortunately, he’s suffered either ill-timed injuries or, such as in 2023-24, didn’t emerge in the rotation until the second half of the season.
Let’s not forget that Jovic was playing outstanding basketball — impacting on both sides — in the 25 games leading up to his hand injury last year, averaging 13.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists on 46.0/37.2/86.4 shooting splits.
He’s had multiple 20-30-game stretches of positive basketball throughout his career, which is saying a lot for a player with 121 career games. That’s only a year-and-a-half worth of games, which is nothing for a player’s long-term development.
Furthermore, his extension hasn’t kicked in yet … and $62.4 million isn’t that much for a fringe starter, which Jovic is! And this rough patch hasn’t jeopardized that trajectory.
As the cap continues to rise — Jovic won’t make more than 9.8 percent of the cap in his new deal — it will continue to look better as Miami’s 6-foot-10 becomes more seasoned. Rightfully, he’s still raw as a defender as a rebounder and ball handler. But he’s made progress in each of those three areas, especially as an individual and team defender.
Though we have seen players develop at different stages over the last several years. Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was unplayable last year (in part due to injury), is the perfect example; Kel’el Ware’s season has been a roller coaster despite putting up gaudy rebound numbers; we saw rocky rides with Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson before they all consistently performed, among several others.
Not all players develop at the same rate nor do they require the same tools to develop. But it’s not linear. Jovic’s start to the season is less than inspiring, but it’s way too early to be pressing the panic button.
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I thought and think it was a mistake extending Jovic. Hopefully Riley will get out of it the was he did with Duncan. This article talks about how Jovic was so effective last year. Well, that’s not what I recall. And then it was said he made a big leap in EuroBasket. No, he was just playing with inferior players. He only made a small improvement, not enough to justify the extension. His handles are still not up to nba levels. And Jovic has gotten a lot of chances, but hasn’t taken advantage of them.
I also have concerns about Herro as a point guard for similar reasons. Herro’s is far superior to Jovic in ball handling, but not on the level of Mitchell or Smith. It will become obvious that he is a very good shooting guard though, and he will be an asset to the team if used properly. The problem is that Powell is the superior overall player, better at everything Herro is good at, and not as much a liability on defense. Powell should start and Herro should bump everyone else down a slot as he becomes our sixth man and Jaimie our seventh. It may not start out that way but it will evolve to that if allowed to.
These are just my opinions, not to be taken as the gospel, and certainly challengeable. But, that’s how I see it.
Actually, I should have said, Powell is better offensively at penetrating and finishing, as good as Ty is at that. And they are fairly equivalent on midrange shots, which strategists believe are to be used sparingly in today’s nba. I believe Ty has the better three ball, even though Powell is decent at that too. And that should help us a lot in zone busting.
powell career 3s 40%
Powell has been an excellent 3p shooter. Here’s the total picture:
Powell career – 13.5/2.7/1.5, 40% 3p%, 82.8% ft% 47.2% fg%
Herro career – 19.4/5.0/4.0, 38.2% 3p%, 87.4% ft% 44.8% fg%
Both are historically good players. I do think Powell is a more complete player at this point.
You may be right about Jovic, but no matter how I’ve tried to suggest you be patient with players – Jaquez, Pelle, Davion as examples – you seem to fall back into premature conclusions. Again, you may end up being 100% right, but it is still too early to be sure. The same goes for anyone with the same mindset. Bottom line is, we will see.
This is year 4 of his rookie contract. I give until the end of the season to prove himself as a reliable rotation player. Unfortunately, if he fails to do so, Miami may be stuck with his 4 year/$62M contract.
I still think he should be sent down to Sky Force for a few weeks to help him try to find his lost mojo. It obviously isn’t anywhere to be found in Miami.
I agree about the fourth year part. I disagree on the G league part. Playing against lesser competition probably won’t change much. He just needs to go 100% in every minute he gets. He can’t be tentative. If he needs to shoot a thousand 3s a day in practice, so be it. Need more bulk? Work harder in the gym. No doubt the rest of this season is crucial for him.
It’s not too early they shouldn’t have paid him yet yes should press the panic button cause if it was Herro it’ll be a different story
Right now, Miami has 8 players scoring in double figures (Powell, Bam, Jaquez, Wiggins, Fontecchio, Ware, Mitchell and Larsson). The only rotation players not scoring in double figures are Jovic and Smith.
When Herro returns, I can see him starting at PG and Mitchell moving to the second unit. That would be a solid 9 man rotation without Jovic and Smith. If Miami brings in a quality PF to rotate with Bam and Ware, the Heat could have a very deep/solid 10 man rotation.
Projected 10 man Rotation
1st Unit: Herro, Powell, Wiggins, Bam, Ware
2nd Unit: Mitchell, Larsson, Jaquez, Fontecchio, new PF
Bench:
Smith, Jakucionis, Jovic, Johnson, Rozier
tyler s not a pg hes a score first guy davian better pg than tyler..davians fine at the point
True. Even true of Dru. But the most likely outcome will be Herro starting at pg. I’d prefer him to come off the bench but I doubt that will be the case.
Herro played PG a few years ago. He can play PG, he prefers SG. With Powell on the team now, he won’t have a choice. Hang loose before coming to conclusions until you see how he performs. He could be great as a PG or he could be looking at getting traded. Time will tell.
too loose with ball.not a playmaker hes a bucket getter
He averaged 5.5 assists least year as a SG. How many more can he get if he is more focused on playmaking than in the past? This is the only way he’ll be able to earn/justify a decent contract extension. That should be enough incentive for him to learn to be effective in an unselfish, team first environment. He has to conform to the style the team is playing and improve the results. Period!
He made 5.5 assists off a slower pace too. With a faster pace, I think he can bump up the assists to at least 6.5 assists a game. Also heat doesn’t realize that he’s both a playmaker and bucket getter. He’s a combo guard for a reason, also can’t forget he will help a bit with boards, since he rebounds good for his size.
Excellent point. And he’s been consistent with a 2:1 assist to TO ratio which is considered good (not great).
There are perfect examples in this league, how teams perform playing without real point guards. One is last years Heat. and Herro played last year. He was even an all star.
Another example is this year Dallas. They got Russell at point, which average 5 ass per game…but nobody is mistaken him as a real point guard… he is a scorer, which occasionally send the ball to the right player.. exactly as Herro.
I remember well, that Heat tried to play Herro at point. They gave up that for a reason.
I think Powell and Herro should rotate at SG position. But the team could survive 5-10 minutes with both be at the court, which is just enough for starting both.
Herro didn’t fit as a PG in the Heat’s old slow down half court game, especially with Butler running so much of the offense and playmaking. Plus, I don’t think Herro ever bought into it.
I agree with Big_guy that Herro is perfectly capable of playing PG in the team’s faster pace run & gun offense. He is built for it. He and Powell together can be lethal. Mitchell can still be one of the top back-up PGs in the NBA.
Again, worse case scenario if the PG experiment doesn’t work, Riley has to make a choice for SG by either extending Powell for less than $26M per season or extending Herro for $35M – $40M, or more. The only way both will be extended is if they are both killing it in the regular season and the playoffs with Herro at PG and Powell at SG.
Regarding Russell, he averages 12.6 ppg and 5.0 apg per game as a primary playmaking PG. Last season, Herro averaged 23.9 ppg and 5.5 apg as a SG. Butler averaged 17.0 ppg and 4.8 apg as a SF. After the trade, Mitchell averaged 10.3 ppg and 5.3 apg as a PG.
Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it. I remember several occasions in past years when Herro played point. Never ended well.
But you raised very important question about Powell and Herro, which must be solved soon. The only way to both stay with the Heat is to both play outstanding basketball as starters at different positions.
Kudos for that, never thought about it that way.
dav pg 1 ty 2g2.
So is that just what you want to see or what you actually believe will be the case? If it’s the latter, I think you will be wrong. I believe the starting lineup will be Bam, Wiggins, Pelle, Powell, Herro OR Ware, Bam, Wiggins, Powell, Herro.
Herro is a terrible PG, he always was. One of the purest SG I know.
Herro’s assists have progressively increased every year since he came into the league. He is now older, wiser and more mature. He has the potential to be a high scoring/high assist PG. He simply needs to make the commitment to doing it.
I think we all just need to chill tf out and give him the benefit of the doubt. I have a feeling it will be a smooth and very productive transition. Being a glass half full type, I believe life is too damn short to be a chronic pessimist.
its not being a pessimist its watching herro play and making an educated bball analyzation.i never thought of herro being a guy thats looking to get other guys the ball.hes a volume shooter with a scorers mentality.i think dav is a better fit at the point being more of a team player.dav is way more physical and much quicker than tyler.whos ty gonna guard.no way he can guard some of the quick pgs in the association,tys best position is at the 2 .maybe put norm at the 3 then and wiggy to bench.i think dav at the point is fine,ty at 2 norm 3 bam4 ware 5.might be our strongest unit
If he averaged almost 6 assists per game, it has to mean he is getting teammates the ball. And that doesn’t include how many times he passes to someone who then misses the shot. He is not really a true pg, but he’s smart enough to be effective in this style of play. I like your lineup suggestions but don’t think that will happen for a simple logical reason. Wiggins, imo, is the most likely one to be traded. If you move him to the bench, you lower his trade value.
Also remember, Herro got stuck heaving up 3’s because he didn’t have a go to clutch guy like Powell to pass the ball to. Otherwise, I see the possibility his apg could have been 1-2 higher.
💯 Teams will not be able to crowd or double him as much with Powell lurking nearby. Very similar offensive skill sets. Both are 20+ppg scorers. Teams will have to pick their poison.
I m the same type, but I also learned, that trying the same thing again and again and expecting a different result is often not very productive.
The perfect example of that is Jovic. Up until now, he hasn’t been very productive in any position he’s been tried at, despite multiple efforts. Jaquez, Larsson and Fontecchio have been far more productive and have earned their rotation spots. Jovic hasn’t. I guess he thought after Euroball and playing alongside Jokic plus receiving the new contract extension, all he had to do was show up and all would be given to him. That’s not how it works. You must work for everything you get. Nothing is given to you.
I still think 3-4 weeks in Sioux Falls would do him a lot of good. Rotting away on the end of the bench isn’t helping anyone.
I wouldn’t call him a terrible pg, I would say he’s adequate enough that you can get by 10-15 mins of pg play from him. Also he isn’t the purest sg ik, he is more of a combo guard . The purest sg ik is probably Zach lavine, or booker.
I agree. PG is not his natural position, but he’s not terrible at it.
We haven’t seen him play PG in an up tempo offense nor have we seen him make the commitment to being the best PG he can be while pursuing a new lucrative contract extension. Until we give him an opportunity to prove himself under the current circumstances, I think it is premature to conclude beforehand how well he will do.
I didn’t make any conclusions about how he will do in this new offense. What I do know is he’s a good, crafty, smart player. I am really looking forward to seeing him out there at full speed. He said the previous style was not his, and uptempo is. We will soon see.
The question is what position is he best suited for? If he was tougher/more physical, he is the ideal size for a PF or C. His ball handling is not good enough for him to play point forward. His scoring is not good enough to start as a SF. That leaves back-up SF, the position Jaquez currently plays 4 years/ $62+M is too much to pay for a back-up SF who isn’t a good scorer, rebounder, playmaker or defender. He has this final rookie contract season to figure out what he wants to be when he grows up before this can be considered a bad contract extension. If that happens, it will be difficult to trade him.
Meanwhile, what is Riley going to do about extensions for Herro, Powell, Wiggins, Jaquez, Fontecchio and others who may be more deserving than Jovic?
Jovic will be big time one day. I still believe in him. He’s too undersized to do center work and be effective, currently. This has impacted his play this year, imho.
id love to bet u on that
#Testify
Something like that, yes.
Patient is needed.
A very objective assessment on the Jovic situation.