The biggest name on the trade block this summer is Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ideally, the Bucks would like for this situation to be settled by next month’s NBA Draft, less than six weeks away. And we know the Miami Heat will be interested, among several other teams.
But what can the Heat offer, hypothetically? Let’s examine!
What assets can the Miami Heat offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo?
For the sake of this exercise, we won’t include Bam Adebayo. They’re not trading their three-time All-Star no matter what; plus, his presence would be one of the Heat’s foremost selling points for the two-time MVP.
Here’s what they can include:
- Three first-round picks (their No. 13 overall pick on draft night only, plus two between years 2030-33; cannot be back-to-back seasons)
- First-round pick swaps between 2029-33, excluding seasons where their FRPs are moved.
- Two second-round picks (No. 41 overall, 2033)
- Tyler Herro ($33 million)
- Kel’el Ware ($4.7 million)
- Davion Mitchell ($12.4 million)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5.9 million)
- Nikola Jovic ($16.2 million)
- Kasparas Jakucionis ($3.8 million)
- Dru Smith ($2.6 million; non-guaranteed)
- Myron Gardner ($2.6 million; partially guaranteed)
- Pelle Larsson ($2.3 million team option)
To avoid hard-capping itself below the second apron, the Heat would have to send out more salary than they receive back. Thus, a deal for Antetokounmpo, who’s making $58.5 million this year, would have to include Tyler Herro, plus a combination of Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell — an underrated asset for Miami — and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Though the Heat would likely have to hard-cap themselves by use of the mid-level exception — by using more than the taxpayer’s portion — if they want to field a strong team around Antetokounmpo.
This doesn’t have to be just a two-team scenario. The Heat could get creative and send, say, Tyler Herro to Detroit, who could subsequently flip assets to the Bucks. Although if more teams get involved, the more moving parts … and the Heat don’t have a ton of desirable parts to move to begin with.
The Heat won’t be the only team interested. While Antetokounmpo would preferably want to play out East, he also wants to play for a contender. Miami doesn’t have any margin-for-error, even though it will have to get uncomfortable to land Antetokounmpo, a top-5 player in the sport when healthy.
What would you be willing to give up for the Bucks’ superstar?! Let us know in the comments!
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Herro, Ware, Jaquez, Jakucionis, #13 in 2026, and two future firsts, swaps etc:
Milwaukee gets 5 first round picks (counting Ware and Jakucionis), an All-Star (Herro), and 6MOTY runner up (Jaquez).
Think for MIL that’s a solid return for a MVP but who is 32 this season and on an expiring contract with leverage over where he’s traded.
For those keeping track at home, that would be equal to 7 first round picks since all 4 players were first round picks, plus a couple of pick swaps. All in favor of 7 first round picks plus 2 pick swaps for Ginnis, please raise your hand.
Rudy Gobert and Mikal Bridges were traded for 5 firsts, Desmond Bane 4, Donovan Mitchell 3 + Lauri Markkanen.
5 for Giannis doesn’t look bad in comparison
For trade purposes Herro and Jaquez are not FRPs, Herro is a veteran who makes 20% of the cap, Jaquez is in the last year of his rookie deal and is owed a big extension. (It would be great if the Heat could keep Jaquez, just don’t see the Bucks wanting Jovic over Jaquez for example)
When is a first round pick not a first round pick? When you say it isn’t? They all were first round picks when they were chosen, regardless of ‘for trade purposes’. So I agree with SM that it is 4 former first round picks plus 3 new ones for a total of 7. Now, is it a fair deal for Giannis? Sure, and particularly to compete with offers from other teams. Would I do that trade? Giannis is unquestionably one of the best players in the league and I’d be happy to see him in a Heat uniform, but I do like the youth movement as well.
No team is thinking they are acquiring first round picks when they trade for Herro and Jaquez, who were former first rounders but aren’t on rookie contracts. The point of first round picks for teams is that they are artifically underpaid. Teams can think they are getting first rounders with Ware and Jakucionis because they still have multiple years left on their rookie deals and have maintained their value from where they were picked in recent drafts.
How do you know what ‘no team is thinking’? You don’t. Saying they are getting players who were first round picks is entirely accurate. How they view those players may differ.
Herro and Jaquez are not first round picks in a trade because they are not on rookie contracts, or in Jaquez’ case are in the last year – they’re paid/about to be paid fair value. It doesn’t matter at all where someone was drafted x number of years ago if they aren’t still on their rookie deal.
The point was the Heat can offer the Bucks 3 first round picks for Giannis, plus Ware and Jakucionis which can be thought of as 5 first round picks. Herro and Jaquez does not mean the Heat are offering 7 firsts for Giannis/does not mean the Bucks would think they are getting 7 firsts in a trade.
It does mean the Heat can trade 3 first round picks as of draft day, and 4 former first round picks. I don’t care how a person sees it and you can’t tell how other teams see it. I actually see it as 3 first round picks and 4 players under contract. My opinion as good as yours.
I see it as 3 firsts plus players also, but Milwaukee fans if they want could justify it as the equivalent of 5 firsts. But Herro and Jaquez does not make it 7 firsts
Not a single one of those trades you mentioned has resulted in a title. Most of the teams overpaid.
All 4 Heat players you referenced would be ranked higher if re-drafts of their draft classes were done today. Google it.
Herro was a lottery pick and the other 3 (Ware, Jaquez and Jakucionis) have been projected to be lottery picks in re-drafts. In other words, it would take 4 lottery picks to replace them.
How much are 4 lottery picks, 3 additional picks and a couple of pick swaps worth for a 30+ year old player? How could Miami possibly recover if he suffered a career ending injury or one that greatly reduced his future performance? You’re talking 15th place in the EC for years. The Miami Heat would become the new Washington Generals of the NBA.
Re-signing Wiggins and trading Herro, Jovic, 1 young player (maybe Larsson or Jaquez) and a pick for Kahwi would be a preferable alternative. Wiggins could play SG as he has in the past. Mitchell, Wiggins, Kahwi, Bam and Ware is a pretty impressive starting line-up, without gutting the team.
Ware has a much higher ceiling than any of the Heat’s other young players. He could very possibly blossom/flourish under a different coach.
Funny, at the same time you wrote this I was also referencing re-drafts (see below).
Gobert trade resulted in 2 straight WCF appearances for Minnesota and they are trying to make it 3 straight.
Giannis is a much better player than all of those listed and a top 50/top 30 player all-time. Whatever team trades for Giannis it will instantly transform their team. If that’s the Heat at the cost only of Herro and Jaquez who both need extensions, Ware and Jakucionis and picks it’s a big win for the Heat imo. If the Heat can somehow keep Jakucionis out it’s a bigger win.
I think that’s a pretty fair trade. No question we would have to give up a lot, despite Giannis’s slightly lesser value due to the factors you described. I hate giving up Ware but to have any chance of getting Giannis to come, it would have to be that. I think that’s the best, most realistic answer we could give. And I think it’s an offer the Bucks would consider. My guess is that Pat will offer less, but even if he did offer this exact deal, it’s still more likely that the Freak goes elsewhere. But, at least this deal has a chance.
Heat will have a great team once all the players rumored to coming are on board (KD, Gianni’s, Donovan, Kahwi, Morant, and more).
I hope folks quit blowing smoke. My @$$ is plum full.
a bunch of low spades and a few first round picks
What are these spades you speak of?
haha. Fair question. It’s a Bomani Jones phrase.
“Spades” is a card game where spades are worth more than any other suite, but the higher the number, the more valuable the card. So the 2 of spades is worth more than any non-spade in the deck, but every other spade is worth more than the 2.
The players on the Heat (besides Bam) are “low spades” because they’re better than a lot of players in the league. But if they’re the best players on your team, then your team stinks.
OK. Makes sense. More of a cribbage and domino guy myself.
ha. fair. I’m more of a dominoes guy myself.
Let’s say the Heat ‘trade assets’ are a bunch of 5-point scores. Better than Kyle Kuzma, but we’re not exactly dropping the double-six’s for a twenty
no bball games tonight that suks
Give the Bucks whatever they want
givem spobot also
Including your soul.
Whatever Miami’s offer, it will need to be on the table before the draft. Other interested teams will be able to offer multiple 2026 draft picks, future picks and quality players which Miami may not be able to match. Therefore, the Arisons & Riley need to have plans B, C, D and E ready if Plan A doesn’t work.
This team does not “have enough” to be a contender. With the expected improvement of other EC teams (e.g., Indiana, Washington and Chicago) the Heat may not have enough to compete for 10th place, much less a title.
plan B would be to to get rid of everybody over 30, Herro and if possible, Jovic, and collecting young players and picks in the process.
That’s what I suggested about a month ago. The one exception would be Wiggins, if he agrees to a team friendly extension. Otherwise, I think getting rid of the 30+ year old players, Herro and Jovic is the best way to go.
Detroit might take Herro as an upgrade to Uncan. Beef Stew, a filler (Holland?) and a pick sounds about right. I think they have the cap space.
I agree. Do a fair deal, do it quickly, or move on.
Herro, Ware, and no more then two out of group of JJJ, Kas, Larsson and Jovic, 3 picks and pick swaps. I would give up only one player out of the group JJJ, Kas, Larsson.
Giannis and Portis for Herro, Wiggins, Ware, JJJ works.
jalen brown trumps that by himself
well duh. Jalen Brown trumps every player on the Heat roster except Bam, and the Heat would only trade Bam for “Wembaya and 5 first round picks”
8 first round picks.
Larsson is the 2nd best in that group after Herro, Heat have to keep Larsson out of the trade IMO.
Think it will be Herro, Ware, JJJ, Kasparas, picks. Milwaukee needs quantity of talent + upside and will want Jakucionis. If that’s what it takes hard to stop a deal based on that.
Heat holding on to Kasparas would be ideal, on a mostly veteran team he would provide real upside.
Portis wouldn’t be a bad piece returning but Portis and Jovic is 30m at PF position. Portis addresses need for shooting. But perimeter defense is the #1 need in the NBA now imo
You think Larsson is better/more valuable than Ware and Jaquez?
Definitely, he had the best year of the three and has the most upside IMO.
On what planet?
Larsson:
26.4 mpg, 11.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.4 apg, fg 49.6 %, 3pt 32.3%
Jaquez:
28.3 mpg, 15.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.7 apg, fg 50.7% , 3pt 31.7%
Ware:
22.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 0.7 apg, fg 53.0%, 3pt 39.5%
Of all 3 players the standout skill is Larsson’s defense. He started 54 games because of that, and his net rating this year was +2.7. Jaquez was higher, +3.2, Ware was -1. Compared to Larsson, both were going more against bench lineups (Jaquez started only 1 game, Ware 34).
Larsson was in 4 of the Heat’s top 5 three man lineups (Bam-Larsson-Mitchell +8.6 Bam-Larsson-Powell +8.6, Larsson-Mitchell-Wiggins +7, Bam-Larsson-Wiggins +6.3).
Larsson averaged 4 ppg less than Jaquez but took 4 fewer shots per game, and while shooting less got to the line more (3.3 FTA for Larsson vs 2.9 for Jaquez).
Larsson has the positional size to play wing (8’6″ standing reach, same as Jimmy Butler). Jaquez listed standing reach is smaller, 8’3.5″. I think Jaquez’ defense is solid/underrated – Spoelstra said he is always around the ball on defense – but Larsson along with Wiggins is guarding the opponents top scorers every night.
On offense I think Larsson has higher upside with ability to get to the rim and add a 3PT shot. I think both Larsson and Jaquez are gym rats who love the game and that’s important projecting upside/who will grow their game. I could see Jaquez having big playoff moments but in terms of upside Larsson IMO is the clear #1, compared to Jaquez he is the better athlete with better positional size, and in his second year had the best performance of the 3 and showed more potential to improve on offense esp. in creating his own shot.
I would say that JJJ is the closest to his max and the best player of those three at the moment. Pelle has some room to improve, and he could become a vital ingredient of a contender team (like Hart is for example), which is outside of JJJs reach.
Ware is by far most talented, but the worst player among those three right now. That could chance next season, if can handle his problems.
He is a center, and he is young, there is a good chance to be a lot better next year.
Larsson is the best bet to improve next year imo, he seems like a player who just gets better every year and adds something to their game. Ware was drafted the highest and has the most trade value but that is different both from actual on court value and upside/potential. I saw a few early projections of Ware as a second round pick, which would have changed how he is viewed. He obviously rose to #15 because length at the 5 is always at a premium in the NBA. 2024 was also a weak draft overall. Ware so far is a minus on defense and in rebounding, those numbers have to turn around for him to become a rotation player. He played minutes this year less because he excelled in his role or won his minutes and more because the Heat had no other options at backup 5.
Ware already is a rotation player and will continue to be a rotation player whether he is here or elsewhere. Most mock drafts I saw had him in the first round. Of the next 15 players chosen after him only McCain would be chosen much higher but others were not better or certainly not tangibly better. Most re-drafts have him no lower than 15 and often higher. I just looked and he’s rated 10, 10, 10, 13, 8, 7, and 15 on 7 different sites. The fact is that you view Ware much differently from the vast majority of the NBA community, as well as most people here. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and the rest of us are entitled to ours.
I think we are confusing him with the facts.
Ware still being around #15 in a redraft is due to 2024 being a very weak draft. #15 in 2024 is not the same as #15 in another draft. Where someone is taken in a particular draft should not influence perception of their potential but of course it does.
And to be a rotation player the first step is to win your minutes. Ware in terms of actual on court performance is not a rotation player this past year but had to play significant minutes because the Heat had no one else at the 4/5 besides him and Bam.
My opinion is not much different from others, I doubt many people outside Heat fans would be concerned at all about losing Ware in a Giannis trade for example.
Ware, as I pointed out, is NOT generally listed at 15! In fact, the average of those positions is #10.
And saying your opinion outside Heat fans is not different from others is delusional. Try doing the research on that. Most people in the league view him as an intriguing talent with positive upside. No matter how you try to convince yourself otherwise, that’s the consensus. I’ve said before that your opinion carries absolutely no more weight than anyone else’s opinion here. You’re entitled to believe what you like and so are we. There are many knowledgeable people here who can be objective as well as subjective. Most do not have blinders on. We see what we see. We research what we research. We draw our own conclusions from a wide range of data.
Consensus means nothing in scouting.
This is relevant on Ware imo, from Brian Geltzeiler (although I have no idea who he is)
“Kid’s gotta grow up, kid’s gotta grow up soon regarding effort. He’s gotta be a pro. If that’s the guy you have to part with to bring Giannis on board and that’s the key player, I wouldn’t hesitate”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og5O6_9KQaA
That’s the same thing as what Spo said in last offseason (Ware must improve his professionalism). Ware being a -1.7 this past year when the Heat were trying to win is not going to work. And it’s not even just the numbers but that he wasn’t in the mindset that every minute you’re on the court you need to win. That stood out from every other bench player on the team.
Oh, so now you know what means something in scouting? This is the issue, this arrogant attitude that what you say is correct and the inference that the rest of us don’t understand the game like you do. The consensus does count. If GMs, scouts, front office personnel, writers, and others generally believe that Ware has great upside, and you don’t, that’s on you.
Ware is 22 and Larsson is 25. Larsson turns 26 on Feb 23, 2027. Ware doesnt turn 23 until April 20, 2027. Larsson was still playing college ball at Ware’s age so Ware is far ahead of him in his development. What’s more valuable 11 ppg in 26.4 mpg or 9 rpg in 22.1 mpg?
Miami DREB% with Larsson on the court – 75.5%
Miami DREB% with Ware on court – 72.3%
Miami defense with Larsson on court – 115.9 (#17)
Miami defense with Ware on court – 116.8 (#21)
Heat were a better rebounding team and a better defense in Larsson’s minutes vs Ware’s minutes.
With the defensive rating also have to factor in Larsson was usually guarding opponents top scorers vs Ware guarding backup bigs.
Ware was -1.7 in 1483 minutes this year, Larsson +2.1 in 1678 minutes (from databallr)
Larsson in year 2 demonstrated competent NBA skills (defense, cutting, passing, driving/drawing fouls). Spo said he was the best at off-ball movement on the team. Only thing he didn’t show was a consistent 3PT shot.
Comparison of scoring – both Larsson and Ware shot around 8 FGA per game and averaged 11 ppg. Jaquez 12 FGA and 15 ppg.
Larsson drew the most fouls (3.3 FTA), then Jaquez (2.9), then Ware (1.2). Even extending Ware’s FTA to per 36 minutes is only 2.0 per game.
Larsson had a much better year 2 than Ware and would have matched Jaquez’ 15 ppg on the same FGA. If you’re saying Ware is a better prospect going forward you’re expecting something drastically different next year than what Ware showed this year.
relying exclusively on statistics produces a distorted view of NBA teams because numbers fail to capture critical, unquantifiable on-court variables and contextual factors.
Don’t be too quick to dismiss AI responses. AI harvests data from multiple sources and consolidates it into a general statement.
AI doesn’t know anything and doesn’t watch games. AI says Kel’el Ware has a 9’4.5″ standing reach and is the next Wilt Chamberlain.
Statistics don’t produce a distorted view, they show what has happened on the court. What happens going forward is anyone’s guess. You need to expect a dramatic change in year 3 for Ware to be a rotation player let alone a star, and he didn’t show signs of that in any games this year.
Yes I’m serious
Pace and Efficiency Variations: Raw box score stats are highly dependent on how fast a team plays. For example, teams with a high pace (like the Sacramento Kings or previous title-contending teams) inflate their total points, rebounds, and assists, making them appear better than their net efficiency ratings indicate. Evaluating via Net Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) provides a much more accurate picture than raw totals.
Missing Intangibles: Statistics miss vital team actions such as defensive rotation awareness, setting off-ball screens, communication, and “defensive gravity”. For instance, a player who does not accumulate blocks or steals might still be an elite point-of-attack defender who disrupts passing lanes.
Role and System Dependencies: A player’s statistical output is heavily influenced by the system and their teammates. If a player is surrounded by shooters, their assist and efficiency numbers naturally rise. Conversely, on a team lacking spacing, the same player’s numbers may drop despite identical individual talent.
On-Off Data Noise: Relying on plus-minus (\(+/-\)) or on-off court metrics can be deceptive. These numbers are volatile and highly sensitive to rotation matchups, meaning a player’s rating can fluctuate wildly depending on which bench or starting units they share the court with.
Not going to argue with AI but plus minus and on off says Wemby, SGA, Jokic etc are the most valuable in the league. Of all the stats the rating stats are the most important, far more than p/r/a.
Context in lineups is always needed. Context for example shows that the success of the Bam Ware lineup that was +8.5 in <500 minutes this year was because of Bam (+4.8 in 1673 minutes w/o Ware), not because of Ware (-6.2 in 1022 minutes w/o Bam).
Ware is also 2-3 years younger than the other 2. He has at least as long as Riley gave Jovic to prove himself.
I wouldn’t give up Jaquez and Larsson. Both are solid rotation players. But that’s just me.
Yes, but its just not realistic to keep both.
Why? Get rid of Jovic and you can.
Yes, but thats also not realistic.