The Miami Heat have a great problem at their fingertips.
Through their first 17 games without star guard Tyler Herro, they had not only one of the most productive starting lineups — but one of the most productive benches.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra was going 10 — sometimes — deep. Their frantic pace allowed Spoelstra to go deeper into his rotation for fresh-er legs. And it reaped benefits.
Herro returned in late November and has played four games since. He’s still getting his feet wet, but is averaging 24.8 points and 4.8 rebounds on 53.8/54.2/94.1 shooting splits since his return.
Now is the perfect time for Spoelstra to test different combinations amid his return. Though there must be one lineup certainty going forward.
At least one of Davion Mitchell or Dru Smith must be on court at all times:
Of course, when you insert a player — especially one with Herro’s caliber — back into the rotation, at least one player’s role will get trimmed.
That could come in various ways, such as a starter getting bumped out or a player’s rotation minutes getting cut significantly, if not all the way.
Dru Smith and Davion Mitchell should be exempt from those conversations.
At 14-7, the Miami Heat own the league’s 11th-best offense and 4th-best defense. And both have been invaluable to the team’s success on both ends.
Mitchell, 27, is averaging 10.0 points and a career-high 7.8 assists on 51.6 percent shooting and 59.7 percent true shooting. Smith, 28, is averaging 6.4 points, 2.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 56.0 percent true shooting.
Both don’t make many mistakes offensively, while both have been efficient shooters and play finishers on solid volume.
Most importantly, Mitchell and Smith are two of the Heat’s best point-of-attack defenders. Of the 244 players who have logged at least 300 minutes, Smith remains atop the NBA in steals per 75 possessions (3.0). Mitchell hasn’t been as disruptive, but still ranks in the 81st percentile (1.6) in that metric.
Furthermore, both players are incredibly difficult to screen at the point-of-attack. They can defend the team’s best ballhandler — easing pressure off Tyler Herro (bad at POA) and Norman Powell (solid at POA) — chewing up shot clock, thus preventing teams from getting into their actions quickly in the halfcourt.
Their value transcends the box score. Miami’s been devoid of legitimately impactful defenders at the point-of-attack, adding extra pressure to Bam Adebayo’s shoulders to cover up any deficiencies. That’s no longer the case.
The numbers back that up, too.
When at least one of Smith or Mitchell is on the floor, Miami has a plus-6.9 NET (78th percentile) with a 111.2 defensive rating (82nd percentile). In the very small sample that neither are, those numbers crater to minus-7.7 (23rd percentile) and 131.0 (1st percentile), respectively, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Correlation doesn’t always equal causation. But it does, in this case.
Most of the Heat’s best lineups have included at least three above-average defenders. And they have two of the league’s best at the point-of-attack — a crucial element to maintaining the team’s defensive structure.
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If Mitchell is going to start, one of three players (Herro, Wiggins or Ware) should be assigned to the second unit. The logical choices are Herro when Miami is playing against taller teams and Wiggins or Ware when the Heat is playing smaller teams. Likewise, the second unit should include Smith, Larsson, Jaquez plus Herro, Wiggins or Ware (if using a 9 man rotation) and a choice of Fontecchio, Jovic, or Johnson if using a 10 man rotation.
Herro should be the one to to the bench. Also not mentioned he wasn’t on the floor during that 32-4 run I could be wrong but I don’t remember seeing him
I totally agree. The expertise of the quality point guard, of which we have two, allows for so many other things to develop. Neither of our SG’s are skilled enough, as skillful as they are. I don’t underestimate Davion and Dru’s value. And they both will get you some meaningful points and some quality assists.