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Analyzing this sharpshooter’s potential fit with Heat

Klay Thompson Miami Heat
(Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images)

As the ol’ adage goes: When there’s smoke, there’s fire.

On several occasions over the last few weeks, Five Reasons Sports’ Ethan Skolnick, as well as Anthony Chiang and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, have connected current Dallas Mavericks sharpshooter Klay Thompson to the Miami Heat.

He’s been labeled a “priority,” even though, technically, he’s still under contract in Dallas — he’s owed $17.5 million this year, the final year of his $50 million contract. Yet, ongoing speculation surrounding Thompson’s future in Dallas suggests that his time there could be nearing its end — via buyout or trade.

Does he fit in Miami? Let’s examine!

Why prioritizing Klay Thompson is the correct move for the Miami Heat:

If you’re reading this concerned about “Father Time,” getting the best of the 36-year-old, I won’t argue with you.

In 69 games, Thompson averaged just 11.7 points across 21.7 minutes per game. He’s noticeably not as quick as he once was — and his age, combined with the ACL and achilles injuries he suffered over a half-decade ago, have ate away at his body.

But the skill that hasn’t evaded the five-time All-Star is his best: His silky smooth 3-point stroke. The sharpshooter buried 38.3 percent of his 7.6 3-point attmepts last year, and he shot 39.6 percent (9.1 3PA) over his four prior seasons.

Miami emptied its pantry for Giannis Antetokounmpo, with Nikola Jovic’s identical $16.2 million as the only practical money-matching salary. So a trade, at this stage, may not be in the Heat’s best interest.

They desperately need more — efficient — volume shooting around Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo. Only one player (Simone Fontecchio) from last year’s rostar attempted at least six threes per 75 possessions. Tim Hardaway Jr. hoisted 9.5 per 75 last year with the Denver Nuggets, and new Heat rookie Ryan Conwell attempted 13.1 per 75 in his final year at Louisville, albeit at a 34.5 percent clip.

That’s still not enough, even though Miami has several palatable shooters. Thompson is far from the defender he once was in Golden State, but he’s still smart in team concept, and would be flanked by multiple capable defenders in Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins, among others.

You won’t be able to find a shooter with as much 1.) gravity and 2.) efficiency as Thompson, even at 36, this late in the summer for cheap. And Miami can still offer up to ~$8 million of its mid-level exception, should the four-time All-NBA honoree be bought out.

Thus, the Heat are right to make him a “priority,” so to speak — but will a deal materialize? Time will tell.

***

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vagibugi
vagibugi
19 days ago

I watched a lot of Thompson when he was in Dallas. Not really impressed.

Problems are:
-a traditionally slow start. He was bad for a half of a season.
-he became streaky.
-not a good defender any more.
-often injured.

He is now two years older, so things should be worse. He wasnt a starter any more in Dallas after a while, and considering, how bad Dallas was, thats not a good thing.

Still makes more sense then Demar, Westbrook, Beal IMO, but only in case of buyout and vet min.

2qbn
2qbn
19 days ago
Reply to  vagibugi

Agree on the better fit. Agree I want him on the vet min, but it sounds like they may be holding out the rest of the MLE for him. Now that is kind of crazy, but guess they want to show Klay respect to try and lure him here.

2015Heat
2015Heat
19 days ago
Reply to  vagibugi

He’s the Norm replacement, and is such a good shooter that in a down year still shot 38% from 3 on 7.6 attempts, better than Powell, better than Herro etc. He would be the highest volume 3PT shooter on the team – the Heat’s #1 need. Think a buyout is preferable to a trade, and if there is a buyout sign him to a 1 yr, $7m deal like Hardaway Jr or a 1+1. Adding Klay would transform the offense and if he is added think there’s a good chance he’s the starter at 2 opening night.

vagibugi
vagibugi
19 days ago
Reply to  2015Heat

Those days are over. I believe THJ is a better player then him right now, he should start over Klay.

2015Heat
2015Heat
19 days ago
Reply to  vagibugi

They are both volume shooters, that’s what they are on the court for. THJ was 17th in the league in total 3PA attempts last year, Klay was 21st, so almost no difference. Klay was 19th in 3PA per game, THJ was 35th, so Klay is a more prolific shooter including last year. THJ shot a better percentage last year, 40% vs Klay 38%, but was also on the #1 offense in the league with Jokic, vs Klay on the #27 offense in Dallas, one of the worst shooting teams in the league.

If the Heat get Klay they can have between him and THJ a top 20 in 3PT attempts shooter on the court for most of the game. Add Fontecchio to that and 3PT volume could go from a weakness to a strength.

vagibugi
vagibugi
19 days ago
Reply to  2015Heat

Something like that, yes.. Klay was better player during his career. Right now, there are similar players.

2015Heat
2015Heat
19 days ago
Reply to  vagibugi

You think Klay’s defense has fallen off that much to be similar to THJ? Think you are underrating Klay’s shooting accuracy (40.9% career on 7.6 attempts, way above THJ’s 36.5% on 6.3) and gravity. Other team has to account for Klay at all times like Curry, Duncan Robinson, etc, there aren’t that many of those type of movement shooters in the league.

SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
18 days ago
Reply to  2015Heat

The most important ability is availability. Klay and DeRozan have both been very sturdy players throughout their careers. Miami needs healthy players who will be around all season and into the playoffs.

vagibugi
vagibugi
18 days ago
Reply to  2015Heat

He is not a player he used to be, thats for sure. In Dallas, and that was 2-3 years ago, he didn’t play well.

oregoner
oregoner
19 days ago

Klay is an interesting choice. He’s not a lead ballhandler, but he’s definitely a championship player. Reminds me of when the Heat got Ray Allen during the Heatles run. I like the idea of 3 years of GIanns, Bam, Klay, and Mitchell. Still need a finisher. Probably gotta trade Wiggins plus more picks. But I’m starting to see the outline of a championship rost

Last edited 19 days ago by oregoner
2qbn
2qbn
19 days ago
Reply to  oregoner

This would be like getting Ray at that time. Just come in and hit shots. Dude hit one of the biggest in NBA history. Hope it works out again that way lol

heat for life
heat for life
20 days ago

how bout splash bros reunion down here.send our mediocre bc to gsw with niko and wiggy

SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
20 days ago
Reply to  heat for life

Steph to Spurs. Jrue Holiday to 76ers? Other teams getting low hanging fruit. Miami gets whatever falls on the ground?

Last edited 20 days ago by SunManFromDogBone
heat for life
heat for life
20 days ago

jrue to heat greeks here steph to spurs they win west

2015Heat
2015Heat
20 days ago

Could walk into a starting SG spot after a buyout

heat for life
heat for life
20 days ago

sign somebody miami has greek and bam beautiful city hottest girls in the world next to kotor.no need for winter jackets.

Iknowtoomuch
Iknowtoomuch
20 days ago

Agree about the one last look at Jovic. Giannis wants to see too. Obviously Klay has never been the same since he blew out his knee. As a result his shot and offensive game has become extremely inconsistent.

Reality Czech
Reality Czech
20 days ago

He would be a very good fit, but I would not give up a draft pick to get him here. We have too few draft picks left as it is. Dallas was never a team that was willing to trade with Miami. If they don’t buy Klay out, we should make other moves now and revisit this at the trade deadline or, better yet, after the season when he is an ufa. I have a feeling that if we don’t start to make moves soon, some of the players that we are interested in might sign elsewhere. That would fall into the category of same old same old.

SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

I agree. Riley should take what he can get while he can still get it.

Jovic has 2 more games left playing for Serbia in August. I would hold off trading him until after those games to see if his improved play is real. If he does somehow find his mojo, he could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Heat or, at minimum, of greater trade value. If not, oh well.

Bout30man
Bout30man
20 days ago

If Jovic doesn’t somehow find his mojo, hopefully this will be the last time he we hope he somehow finds his mojo. After this time we will finally say no mo Jo vo no mo.

Reality Czech
Reality Czech
20 days ago

You and I (and 2qbn and vagibugi) are the only ones left on the Jovic bandwagon. One wheel has fallen off, the transmission is slipping, the brakes make an awful squealing sound, and previous riders have left a ton of old chewing gum under the seats. But I think he can be a good complimentary player if he uses the skill set and size he’s been given. But, yes, this season is it, he must show up now.

SweeterSwish
SweeterSwish
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

I am a Nico supporter. I believe in Jovic and frankly, it was astounding to me how a lot of HHH commenters wanted to dump him off like he was trash. He was injured last year. I think he’s going to thrive with Giannis and/or Bam on the court. He works REALLY well with Jokic on the Serbian team and will break out this season for the Heat barring injury. Go watch some Jovic highlights from FIBA and you can start to imagine how he will help us.

Reality Czech
Reality Czech
20 days ago
Reply to  SweeterSwish

I did watch those highlights. It’s what makes me feel similar to you.

2qbn
2qbn
20 days ago
Reply to  SweeterSwish

Testify!

vagibugi
vagibugi
19 days ago
Reply to  SweeterSwish

Niko has the talent to be a great player. I can see him to be a similar player like Avdija.

But yes, thats the last chance.. 10 bad games in the roll, a serious injury, shooting slump, whatever else which makes him not playing well..
in all that cases he should be moved to the end of the bench, and Heat should trade him.

SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

Miami stuck with bad contract if he doesn’t find his mojo. And folks thought Uncan’s contract was bad. I saw trade proposal Jovic and Gardner to Denver for holdout player what’s his name

Bout30man
Bout30man
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

I agree with everything you said. This may be the lowest hanging fruit, somewhat useful, but not worth paying in picks or players for. The other remaining guys we are considering will all help more and cost less.

Last edited 20 days ago by Bout30man
2qbn
2qbn
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

Agree Klay is a good fit. He will only be required to hit open 3’s. Not a problem.

Nobody has signed yet, and I’m not positive the Heat are in love with a DeRozan fit or he would have already been here.

So many so quick to label things as bad or same old if all the pony’s aren’t on the team this summer. There will be buyouts that happen closer to start of season and I think the Heat are in no rush.

Last edited 20 days ago by 2qbn
SweeterSwish
SweeterSwish
20 days ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

The unfortunate thing is that there’s not a lot of free agents left that are really worth it. None of these guys really move the needle for me, besides Klay. I was watching YouTube and someone suggested Alec Burks. I thought that was a good idea, but I haven’t seen him since he played with us. It’s slim pickin’s again.

2qbn
2qbn
20 days ago
Reply to  SweeterSwish

I’m not crazy about the DeRozan fit, especially if he wants the full like $6-$7 we have left. Most don’t move the needle, but can fortify and support the roster. I’m a big bring Bruce Brown back to Miami guy. I think he fits better and might play for the minimum.

The other to watch is if Lavine is bought out. If you add Klay and Levine now you move the needle.

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