Coming off an embarrassing 17-point loss to the tanking Pacers the night prior, no team needed a jolt more than the Miami Heat.
Not necessarily offensively, but defensively. The first two-and-a-half quarters were much of the same that we’ve seen the last three weeks. A team heavily reliant on zone that couldn’t generate many stops — especially against the Philadelphia 76ers’ regulars.
However, the unit tightened up. And the play of one particular player — Tyler Herro — rallied the Heat home over the 76ers, 119-109.
In the final 3:39, Herro blocked two shots — including one 3-point attempt (VJ Edgecombe) — drained two 3-pointers in semi-transition while putting the icing on the cake with an 11-foot floater to put the Heat up 10 with 46 seconds left.
The All-Star guard buoyed a 14-0 Heat splurge after they were trailing by two, scoring 12 of his 30 points in the final quarter, his second-straight 30-point outing. Herro went 12-of-24 from the floor with four rebounds, three assists and one steal (with the two blocks) across a game-high 42 minutes.
He stepped up when the team needed him the most, especially with the Heat missing Norman Powell once again.
His co-star, Bam Adebayo, was also critical to the team’s pivotal win; they couldn’t survive without him on the floor, literally. Single game plus-minus is oftentimes fluky, but Adebayo was a plus-27 in 41:58, scoring 23 points while grabbing 16 rebounds — four offensive — with six assists.
Most importantly, Miami’s defense grounded Philadelphia to 41.7 percent shooting and 31.6 percent from 3-point range after a fast start. That’s been anything but the story from its defense the past several games, where it’s been nothing short of a sieve.
The Heat’s win improves them to 40-36, moving them a 0.5 game up on the Charlotte Hornets for the No. 10 spot. They are now tied with the Orlando Magic, where it does now own the tiebreaker, and they are now 1.5 games back of Philadelphia for the No. 7 seed.
With six games left, where do you predict the Heat finish? Let us know in the comments!
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One of the best wins of the season – they shot <30% from three and still won the game +10 by winning rebounds +15, 2nd chance points +7, PITP +18, and fast break points +19, in a back to back game vs a rested opponent. Ran right past Philly
Didn’t do much for their top 6 chances because ATL also won
Heat moved from 8% to make top 6 to 9%, Philly moved from 36% to 21%
When you look at the shooting statistics, you can see that Miami’s defense really did do a great job. All three of Philly’s stars shot poor percentages. I keep being impressed by Pelle, even covering bigger players like Embiid, he doesn’t get pushed around much and he is quick enough to stay in front of most guys. And the often maligned Herro made some nice defensive plays too. But, especially effective was Bam, so much so that whenever he rested Philly went on a run. Defense, the limiting of easy buckets, is the subtlest of all stats, but one of the most critical.
In the postgame Spo said Pelle has next level cutting and rebounding instincts on offense, compared his off ball activity “to a player I don’t need to name”/Jimmy Butler
Defense really shows up in the plus minus and on off stats
Bam was a net +44, Heat were +27 with him on and -17 with him off
Ware was -38, Heat were -14 with him on and +24 with him off
In the brief stretches where Bam was out the Heat played Ware with Wiggins and Mitchell. Wiggins was +20 in the starting 1Q and 3Q lineup but only +5 for the game, and Mitchell was +13 in that lineup (missed part of the 3Q with injury) and -2 for the game
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/plus-minus/202603300MIA.html
Why such a drop off with Ware. It seems like it’s a stat that often appears, particularly in losses. Is it him or is it more associated with the second unit?
Long answer but Ware and Herro are the only Heat players with negative net ratings this year. Dru Smith’s plus minus was -5 and Fontecchio -8 in this game but on the year are +0.2 and +3.9 (from basketball reference).
Ware is -0.4 and Herro -1.3. (I don’t put much into the Herro number because he’s played only 29 games vs Ware’s 71)
Looking at the plus minus and on off, in this game Ware was the Heat’s first sub, for Wiggins, at 5:35 in 1Q.
Heat starting lineup is +5 when Ware enters, and Heat are up +9 when Bam subs out at 0:55 in 1Q for Wiggins.
Bam is +9, Ware is +4, the Bam-Ware two big lineup is +4 at this point.
Without Bam Philly goes on a 15-5 run, and Bam reenters the game at 9:00 in the 2Q for Ware. Ware is now -6 and Heat are -10 in the minutes with Bam on the bench and trail by 1.
In the 3Q same substitution pattern, Ware in for Wiggins at 4:36 with the Heat up 12. At 2:08 Bam subs out for Wiggins with the Heat up 11, and Philly goes on a 11-4 run to cut the lead down to 4 going into the 4Q.
The Bam-Ware lineup is +3 in around 7 minutes, but Ware is -14 in 13 minutes and the Heat are -17 in the 6 minutes without Bam.
Only the starters plus Jaquez play in the 4th, and they outscore Philly by 6 and Heat end up with a 10 point win.
But these games (Bam +27, Ware -14) are one reason why the Heat’s W-L record is lower, they’re often losses.
In Ware’s 1Q/2Q minutes the Heat lost a 9 point lead and in the 3Q had a 12 point lead cut to 4 going into the 4th. Anyone’s game with only a 4 point lead
Yes, I see. And, although in other games there is some variance, overall, that’s the pattern. It’s interesting because often Ware is in against second teamer’s. And his rim deterrence should actually be higher than Bam’s as he is taller and has a greater wingspan. It seems like Ware’s positioning and hustle, or lack thereoff, are associated with these stats.
Ware is most effective when he is paired with Bam (or another big in order to accentuate his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. All the more reason for Miami to have obtained a third front court rotation player before the trade deadline. If Jovic can’t function as a true PF, Miami must look elsewhere this summer for a player to fill this role.
true but even with bam havent been impressed for the most part theres been glimpses of wemby jr just to SPOradic.even at 6 10 jovic is soft hes not a pf sun.why they havent given vlad a look is a spo scratcher.look at his college tape its impressive
The issue with Ware does show up in the overall plus/minus. That is when that stat is a good indicator of what a player is, or is not, doing. However, what got a bit lost here is that we have to look at Herro’s stat as well. I believe 29 games, which is more than one third of the season, is a very fair sample size. My contention has always been that if you put him in the right lineups, his number (+/-) will improve. Playing alongside Bam, Wiggins, Mitchell and Pelle really helps to offset his defensive deficiency. I hope when Powell is healthy, they don’t automatically insert him back in the starting lineup. Pelle has developed as a key piece with the starters.
Positioning a huge part of it and that also shows up in Ware’s defensive rebounding on off, where the Heat are -4.2% in DREB% with Ware on the court. Heat are a slightly better defensive rebounding team when Dru Smith is playing than when Ware is playing. They are the #8 defensive rebounding team overall, a top 5 rebounding team when Ware is not playing and close to bottom 5 team in his minutes.
Against a team like Boston that prioritizes OREBs (#6 in the NBA) it will be tough to find minutes for Ware if the game is close. A win would prob require 40+ minutes again from Bam
just look at wares body language lack of intensity.that says it all.just no fight in him .major disappointment but is that becuase of his SPOradic minutes or is that soley on him either way nonchalant play unacceptable.major major disappointment he could have been the difference between playin bam herro team and a legit contender,
Could just be the classic case of a big taking time to adjust to a demanding defensive scheme.
Doesn’t help his shot has been off of late too. On offense because he’s not a threat off the drive and that diminishes his involvement on offense.
Heat 40-36 with 6 games to go.
43-39 or 44-40 won’t get Miami out of the play-in, although it might get it into 8th place. It’s time to rest the starters and play the youngsters. The NBA can’t call it tanking because the Heat can’t possibly play itself out of a play-in spot with an 8.5 game lead over Milwaukee with 6 games to go.
I’ve been looking at possible prospects that may available to Miami if it is in the late lottery. Here’s a few:
Koa Peat (Arizona)Position: PF | Size: 6’8″, 235 lbs | Age: 19
Pro Comp: Wendell Carter Jr.
Nate Ament (Tennessee)Position: SF | Size: 6’10”, 207 lbs | Age: 19
Pro Comp: Zaccharie Risacher
Jayden Quaintance (Kentucky)Position: PF | Size: 6’10”, 255 lbs | Age: 18
Pro Comp: Bam Adebayo
Karim Lopez (New Zealand Breakers)Position: PF | Size: 6’8″, 225 lbs | Age: 19 | Country: Mexico
Pro Comp: Franz Wagner
Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston)Position: PF | Size: 6’11”, 240 lbs | Age: 18
Pro Comp: Bobby Portis
Possible second rounders in the 30-50 range:
Patrick Ngongba II (Duke)Position: C | Size: 6’11”, 250 lbs | Age: 19
Pro Comp: Jonas Valanciunas
Tounde Yessoufou (Baylor)Position: SG/SF | Size: 6’5″, 215 lbs | Age: 19 |
Pro Comp: Cam Whitmore
Henri Veesaar (North Carolina)Position: C | Size: 7’0″, 225 lbs | Age: 21
Pro Comp: Nikola Vucevic
Luigi Suigo (Mega)Position: C | Size: 7’2″, 250 lbs | Age: 19
Pro Comp: Ryan Kalkbrenner
Alijah Arenas (USC)Position: SG | Size: 6’6″, 199 lbs | Age: 19
Pro Comp: Jalen Green
Alex Karaban (Connecticut)Position: SF/PF | Size: 6’8″, 230 lbs | Age: 22
Pro Comp: Sam Hauser
Flory Bidunga (Kansas)Position: SF | Size: 6’10”, 235 lbs | Age: 20
Pro Comp: Yves Missi
Dash Daniels (Melbourne)Position: Combo guard | Size: 6’5″, 198 lbs |Age: 18 | Pro Comp: Dyson Daniels
Trevon Brazile (Arkansas)Position: PF | Size: 6’10”, 230 lbs |Age: 23Pro Comp: Obi Toppin
Malik Reneau (Miami)Position: PF | Size: 6’9″, 238 lbs | Age: 22Pro Comp: Collin Murray-Boyles
Mouhamed Faye (Paris)Position: C | Size: 6’10”, 225 lbs | Age: 21 |
Pro Comp: Moussa Diabate
I particularly like Flory Bidunga. Crazy athleticism, rebounding, shot blocking, high motor. Exactly what we need in a backup. Alex Condon not on your list, but another good option.
Thanks for the two lists. I have had my eyes on Cenac for awhile. I hope he’s available.
If Philon falls to us, they should take him. Haugh, Cenac, Peat, and Ament are all players who would help immediately and possibly move quickly into the starting rotation due to area of need, depending on what happens with Wiggins or even Mitchell.
Shocks me that Kaspar got no run last night. I mean I get they have better odds to make the playoffs as a 7-8 seed, needing to lose twice to not make it, but it just shows how out of touch this franchise is with where is really stands. Being a 7 or 8 seed, and getting swept in round one, shouldn’t be some lofty goal that hope to accomplish.
That was quality basketball, and Heat finished at the top. I wonder why they dont play with that energy and effort every night.
I mean they didn’t even play that way the whole game. It’s just who they are. Mediocre and inconsistent.
Heat culture doesn’t mean out working your opponent anymore….it means driving your fan base mad, blowing large leads, and playing inconsistently.
That was amazing. Herro put on a show and let everyone know what a great player he is. And it didn’t stop with him as the whole team rose up in a game Philly needed badly.
In fact, I don’t know who has it worse going down the stretch. Of the teams in contention for the playoffs/play-in, everyone’s schedule almost couldn’t be worse. I don’t know how the Magic have any chance at all, for example. It’s likely that everyone, seed five to ten, will limp in from here, losing at least as many as they win. So, no one knows yet how this is going to shake out and although Toronto and Atlanta are much more likely to take seeds five and six, nothing is certain, not with their schedules.
And, as you can see after last night, anything can happen. What a game, what a great night for the Heat.
“Single game plus-minus is oftentimes fluky”. Very true statement by Matt. It is a more telling stat over a course of time or a season that can be very helpful for a team to assess what (and who) is working or not.
I watched 18 minutes of highlights (no Peacock) and there was great energy. Jaquez has been able to sustain the power drive game all season and deserves major props for the year he’s had. Pelle has proven to be an integral part of this team now and in the future. I hope that when Powell is well, Spo has him come off the bench. The starting lineup tonight is, imo, the best one to put out there. Four defenders plus Herro minimizes what the opposition can exploit. And once again, Herro showed what he can do at his best.
Jaime just has to get his midrange touch down and the game will open up even more for him.
Hi hum…when do the play-ins start?