The Miami Heat have never had good lottery luck. Dating back to its first lottery appearance in 1989, they have never moved up in 12 lottery tries, even after the league altered the lottery odds ahead of 2019. Still, in just two appearances since, the Heat have finished with the 13th-best odds both times.
You won’t find the Miami Heat tanking, although plenty of teams have over the last half-decade. The 2025-26 season was the straw that broke the camel’s back, where six teams finished with 25 or fewer wins for the second time in three years. Many of the league’s worst were tanking to get a bite at a three-headed monster in AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer.
Games in March and April league-wide were simply non-competitive. Thus, commissioner Adam Silver decided to completely overhaul the current lottery system, instituting a “3-2-1” system. Here’s how it works:
- The most ping pong balls a team could receive is three.
- The teams with the three worst records — in the “relegation zone” — receive two each.
- Teams that don’t finish in the relegation zone and don’t make the play-in receive three.
- Nos. 9 and 10 seeds receive two each.
- Teams that lose the No. 7 v. 8 play-in in each conference receive just one (the winner doesn’t get any).
- Teams cannot finish with No. 1 pick in two straight years.
- Teams cannot finish in the top-5 of the lottery in three straight years.
With these new anti-tanking measures, one team who will inherently benefit is the Miami Heat, according to CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn.
“There are a handful of teams that historically don’t tank or have come out hard against tanking. Some of the historical non-tankers — the Wizards and Pacers, most notably — have caved in recent years,” Quinn wrote. “You’d be hard-pressed to find a single team that both talks the talk and walks the walk when it comes to tanking. The Heat are probably the closest. Pat Riley took over the team in 1995, and since then, they’ve won fewer than 25 games only once, in 2008. It took them until March of that 15-win season to start shutting down core players.
“The Heat have spent the past four seasons in the Play-In Tournament. That’s exactly where most teams don’t want to be. The middle, at least recently, has been treated as a hamster wheel. Not good enough to compete for championships now, not bad enough to get the players necessary to compete for championships later. It’s a trap. Or at least, it was.”
Miami Heat could benefit from new draft lottery:
First, the MiamI Heat — who will own two picks between 2027-29, when new system will be tested — would have to be bad enough to miss the play-in. The thought of that is significantly unlikely, even in their worst season. The bottom of the East is quite wretched.
That said, in a vacuum, the Heat scoring a top-4 pick — or even the No. 1 pick — become exponentially higher with a sprinkle of luck. This year, they had a 4.8 percent chance at securing a top-4 selection with a one percent chance at No. 1 overall. Under this new system, they would’ve had a 22.4 and 5.4 percent chance with the 13th-best odds, respectively.
Furthermore, any team who finishes 4th through 10th have an 8.1 percent chance at No. 1 overall. That’s a ginormous percentage, although flattened odds will inevitably lead to more chaos. And more chaos gives them a higher likelihood at securing a franchise-altering talent — most commonly found in the top-10.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Heat will acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo. A lot can happen over a three-year span, but a Giannis-led Heat likely wouldn’t be a lottery team. Assuming they don’t, however, history suggests that the Heat will drop further than they rise.
But if you believe in positive regression, Miami is due for some sort of luck, right?
Right?!?!?!
***
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
Check out Hot Hot Hoops on Facebook here!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!
- Why Heat are clear winners from league’s reformed lottery
- How would Giannis Antetokounmpo shape Heat’s championship odds?
- Hanifan: It’s time for Heat to take a break from star chasing altogether
- Latest report says Giannis Antetokounmpo’s preferred destination is Heat or rival Celtics
- Heat cannot afford to repeat this same mistake entering the 2026 offseason
- How the Miami Heat have more racehorse owners than any team should
- 2026 NBA Draft Tracker: Who do Heat plan to work out?
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Let’s hope Miami is prepared for success when the opportunities present themselves.
The Heat will keep the 2027 pick if they are a lottery team again. If that happens, the pick would automatically go to Charlotte in 2028 (as part of the Rozier trade). Thank you Adam Silver.
If Miami trades for Giannis, it will very likely be out this year’s #13 pick, plus future picks. If that happens, the Heat will need to fill the 2026-2027 roster via trades and by signing free agents and G Leaguers.
“If that happens, the Heat will need to fill the 2026-2027 roster via trades and by signing free agents and G Leaguers.”
Pretty much exactly like every Finals run they have made.
ring chasers to play with a top 3 player
B-I-N-G-O and HFL was his name-o
Also, I think they are pretty dang good at finding G-league-like guys that can contribute, like Vincent and Struss on the Finals run with Jimmy.
G Leaguers aren’t developed overnight.
With cheap free agents, new G Leaguers and no draft picks? What years were those?