Why Nikola Jovic's extension could be an absolute bargain

Days after commenting publicly that he’s not worried about an extension, the Miami Heat signed fourth-year forward Nikola Jovic to a four-year, $62.4 million extension.

The deal marked the first extension the Heat rewarded any of their five extension-eligible players this summer, although they had technically re-signed Davion Mitchell ahead of restricted free agency.

While Mitchell’s deal is mutually beneficial for both sides, I would argue Jovic’s is, too. Yet, I do believe that the 22-year-old has the potential to be an absolute bargain. Let’s talk about it!

Nikola Jovic won’t make more than nine percent of the projected cap throughout contract:

Yes, Jovic has only played 107 games over his first three seasons, where he hasn’t played more than 46 games. It’s justified if there’s some level of concern.

However, his role has expanded in each of those seasons, and he will have a clear runway for another uptick in production heading into the 2025-26 season. The better he played, the steeper the price was going to be next summer.

Before suffering a fractured hand last year, the former No. 27 overall pick was playing the best basketball of his life, averaging 10.7 points and 3.9 rebounds in 25.1 minutes per game, shooting 45.6 percent from the floor and 37.1 percent from 3-point range. In his last 21 games leading up to the injury, he was averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists on 46.2/37.0/80.6 shooting splits. He was playing great basketball within the role he had.

Jovic’s new deal won’t kick in until next season, where he is set to make $13.9 million, roughly 8.4 percent of the projected salary cap. While I’ve said on numerous occasions that every dollar matters in the NBA, that’s a very reasonable chunk of change for a player who projects to be arguably the Heat’s fourth- or fifth-best player, at worst.

Furthermore, his first year’s cap hit doesn’t even crack the top-115 leaguewide. He’ll be making less than Patrick Williams, Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks, Terance Mann, Dennis Schroder and Josh Green, among others, next year. Here’s what his contract looks like for the duration of it:

$13.9 million (8.4 percent)
$15.0M (8.7 percent)
$16.2M (8.9 percent)
$17.3M (9.0 percent)

What’s baked into those percentages is the projected cap increase being roughly 7.3 percent next season with five percent increases in the subsequent three summers. With the NBA’s new $76 billion media rights deal kicking in this fall, should the cap increase closer to the 10 percent maximum figure allotted, those percentages decrease and the deal looks even more beneficial relative to the NBA’s current cap structure.

Additionally, Jovic’s new deal will be worth less than what the full non-taxpayer mid-level would’ve been. Next year’s NTMLE projects to have a starting salary of $15.14 million — ultimately amounting to $67.8 million.

Nikola Jovic isn’t worried about possible extension as deadline approaches

He’ll be making north of 90 percent of that, but if Jovic plays anywhere near where he’s expected to play for, say, 60 games, the NTMLE would’ve been a great deal from the Heat’s perspective if he signed next summer.

The Heat have invested a lot in their 6-foot-10 wing, and this new contract proves that. For his and the team’s sake, it will be very beneficial for him to have better injury luck.

He’s one of their best passers, as well as being a capable spot-up 3-point shooter, play finisher in transition and team defender, where he’s taken multiple strides.

He’s grown in the myriad roles he’s played in, and now the 22-year-old has a chance to turn this deal into an absolute bargain if he’s 90 percent of the player the organization believes him to be.