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Heat should choose to build with homegrown guard over newly named All-Star this summer

Tyler Herro Norman Powell
(Mandatory Credit: Gary Bassing/NBAE via Getty Images)

If the Miami Heat need to make an inevitable decision between Tyler Herro or Norman Powell this offseason, one of the former All-Star’s may have a stronger case. The experiment with pairing Herro and Norman Powell together this season has unfortunately not worked as well as expected.

For starters, injuries have gotten in the way of truly seeing the vision with them in coach Erik Spoelstra’s lineup. All year it has seemed like if one was available, the other wasn’t. And in the smaller sample size where each was available together— it hasn’t led to winning.

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The problem is that it may have been a clunky fit to begin with. Herro and Powell are both injury prone three-level scorers that lack the necessary defensive ability to complement each other. It’s essentially having the same exact player with the same strengths and flaws. Maybe over the course of a healthy season, they could have put that talent together to make something work.

But injuries have prevented that from being the case.

Herro, who is making nearly $31 million this season, is still due for a contract extension. But he remains under contract for at least one more season if that extension doesn’t come to fruition. He is expected to earn $33 million next season in the final year of his four-year $120 million extension signed in 2023.

Powell is also seeking a pay day, but will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season. He is on a much more team friendly deal at just $20 million annually. However, after securing first time All-Star honors this year for Miami, that figure will very likely be demanded to increase from Powell and his camp if the 32-year-old veteran entertains returning over the summer.

The Miami Heat have a losing record with Tyler Herro and Norman Powell both in the lineup.

Something is going to have to give.

It doesn’t make financial sense for this front office to commit to a pair of redundant and injury prone guards, rather than attempt to use that money to find better fits for this team elsewhere and finally get out of this play-in mediocrity.

Even though Herro is the more expensive player, he is also nearly six years younger. That notion comes with much more upside and potential to justify the price tag. Additionally, Herro is a homegrown talent that the Heat organization has spent seven-plus years investing in.

If Powell shockingly agrees to return at a team friendly discount, that could change things. Maybe Miami could attempt at getting a fully healthy season from the duo to see it through if this experiment really works. Or float the option of having one of them embrace a sixth man role for better rotation balance and flexibility.

The blunt reality is that this front office led by an 81-year-old Pat Riley has had a history of complacency throughout this entire decade. Leaning into Herro could be a decision that stems from it just being an easier decision— considering he is already under contract for another year and they don’t necessarily have to do anything to have Herro back next season.

But then there’s also the possibility of a league-wide expansion taking place as soon as this offseason. That in itself could force the Heat’s hand to make moves, as league rules allow teams to only protect eight players under contract within 14-15 man roster requirements.

If one has to go, who would you choose between Herro and Powell? Let us know in the comments!

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SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
2 months ago

This team needs to turn the page on the “Butler Chapter.” It hasn’t yet. It’s stuck somewhere between “We can get to the NBA Finals as a play-in team with what we have” and “we can get there with a little tweaking.” The truth is that this team’s best days are behind them. Tweaking around the edges won’t do anything other than give fans false hope (at least those fans who are still buying the “woof tickets” Riley and Spo are selling).

The Heat has a good young core of players. Call it a supporting cast. What it doesn’t have is a star. Bam, Herro, Powell and Wiggins are, at best, #2 – #4 players, nothing more.

Bam is trying to perform offensively at a level he is consistently unable to attain. He is also being required to perform in a position he is not best suited for (center). He’s trying to carry the team on his back offensively and defensively. That 83 point game against the Washington Generals is the worst thing that could have happened to his previously steady, humble, blue collar, journeyman mentallity. His insistence on forcing up 3 point shots is hurting the team. Unfortunately, I don’t think you can put the genie back in the bottle once he’s been let out. Without a ss team leader, Bam is stuck in “no man’s land” of reality vs expectations. He would be the centerpiece of any trade for a ss or young players and multiple draft picks.

Herro is what, in the corporate world, would be considered an example of the “Peter Principal.” This is when an employee is promoted to his/her highest level of competence, where they remain because they are no longer capable of performing at a higher level. Herro is a glorified Duncan Robinson. He would function best in an environment where his defensive shortcomings could be covered by a superior defense. He is not and will never be a two-way player. Miami can do better. At minimum, he can be traded for an expiring contract and a young player or an expiring contract and multiple second round picks.

Powell is a good #3 scorer. However, like Herro, he is a poor defender. He will be 33 years old next season and does not fit the team’s rebuilding/re-tooling timeline. The best Miami can do is either let his contract expire or find a partner in a sign & trade agreement.

Wiggins is a good #4 player. He’s a good defender with the ability to average 15-17 points per game. However, at 32, he also will not fit Miami’s rebuilding/re-tooling timeline. I believe he will opt out of the final year of his contract in order to sign with a contending team that is willing to offer him a reasonable 3 year contract. Again, the best Miami can do is either let him opt out or find a partner in a sign & trade agreemen.

Rozier and Fontecchio will be gone after their contracts expire and their salaries will come off the books.

Most of the remaining players are still on rookie contracts, minimum contracts or reasonable veteran contracts. The exception is Jovic, who, up until now, appears to be another poor contractual decision by Riley. Hopefully, he can be traded as part of a larger package.

Miami has a first and second round draft pick this summer. The team does not have a pick in 2027 (since it was gifted to Charlotte in the Rozier trade). Unfortunately, Riley chose to accept the decision of Silver/the NBA to award the Heat a second round pick to compensate for the skinning received in the Rozier debacle, without pursuing a legal remedy via the courts.

Our competitors in the Southeast Division (Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando and Washington) will all be an upward trajectory next season. Other teams, such as Indiana, Milwaukee and the Bulls should also be challenging for play-in/playoff spots. Where does that leave Miami? Whether or not they choose to rebuild, It leaves them in the lottery.

The reality is, Miami has a few expiring contracts, players it can use in trades and significant cap space. Where the team goes from here is up to the front office. One thing is for sure, because of the overall improvement of teams in the Eastern Conference, mediocrity will no longer ensure Riley the cover of a play-in spot. Whether the decision is made to tweak the roster again or re-build, it appears inevitable that the Heat will be a lottery team for at least the next couple of years. Unfortunately, whether or not Miami is a lottery team in 2026-2027, Charlotte will get the Heat’s 2027 pick.

The next moves are up to Arison and Riley. Hopefully, they will choose wisely.

heat for life
heat for life
2 months ago

wow that is one great post.this should be in the miami herald or sun sentinel.and the thing is i dont have to pay to read this brilliant mans writings night after night .between sunman and eric reid i am blessed with 2 great communicators.once gain the seasons just about over thank u sunman for your great articles this year look forward to next years.gl to your dodgers in the world series

SunManFromDogBone
SunManFromDogBone
2 months ago
Reply to  heat for life

Thanks heat. You’re making me blush. I’m glad you enjoy my perspective on things. If nothing else, I hope my comments are thought provoking for you and others.

Like everyone else, I just want to see the team succeed. Riley has had a good run. It’s time for him to hand the reins over to someone else.

I also get the feeling these last couple of years have taken their toll on Spo and several of the players. Maybe it’s also time for Spo to move up into the front office and bring in a new coach with new perspectives, who is good at working with and developing young players. There are several good coaches and assistant coaches out there. There are even a few in the college ranks.

If nothing else, this year has provided everyone a more realistic assessment of the team, the front office and the coaching. when compared to the more successful/elite NBA teams.

Whoever is here next season will have their work cut out for them. One thing is absolutely clear, the team cannot continue on its current course and still remain relevant.

The process of changing personnel and rebuilding will take a while, maybe 2-3 years. Meanwhile, we will need to be patient until the necessary changes are made and the new course is charted. It is what it is.

heat for life
heat for life
2 months ago

maybe 2-3 maybe 3-10.its a bad place to be in but we are in it.get a young ss mission accomplished.

Reality Czech
Reality Czech
2 months ago

If you can bring in assets for both, then maybe saying goodbye to both is best for them and the team. A fresh start is needed.

oregoner
oregoner
2 months ago
Reply to  Reality Czech

I came here to say the same thing. Bringing back either one of those players would be a insanity. We don’t need to pay those guys thirty million dollars to build a tenth place team. We can have Dru Smith and Pele Larson as our guards and finish tenth

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