Earlier this week, the Miami Heat — begrudgingly — punched their ticket to the play-in for the fourth-straight year. Though a 7-seed was still an attainable scenario.
However, that’s no longer the case. As a result of the Magic’s 12-point win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, the Heat can no longer finish the regular season as the No. 7 seed. However, with just three games left, they can still earn the No. 8 seed — where a win would grant them the No. 7 seed against Boston.
That begs the question: What would have to happen for that to become attainable?! Let’s examine!
How the Miami Heat can earn No. 8 seed:
There are three games left in the Heat season — their game Thursday against Toronto, Friday against Washington and Sunday against Atlanta, their season finale.
At 41-38, the Heat are 1.5 games back of the Charlotte Hornets and two back of the Philadelphia 76ers for the No. 8 seed. Thus, there’s only one scenario that nets them that 8-spot:
- Heat win against Toronto, Washington AND Atlanta
- 76ers lose vs. Pacers AND Bucks
- Hornets lose vs. Pistons AND Knicks
How likely is that to happen?! Small. Very small.
According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities, there is a 5.6 percent chance that they earn the No. 8 seed, which seems generous. Miami hasn’t beaten Toronto all season. And the Heat will need quite the performance from the tanking Pacers, plus an undermanned Bucks.
The Knicks are still a 0.5 game up on Cleveland, but could have that 3-seed sealed by the time Sunday rolls around, too.
The Heat have made their bed, and they will have to lie in it.
Should they get bounced from the play-in, regardless of their final seeding, they will have a lottery pick for the first time since 2019, when they drafted Tyler Herro. Currently, they are projected to have the No. 13 pick, granting them a 4.8 percent chance at a top-4 pick and one percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
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This team needs to turn the page on the “Butler Chapter.” It hasn’t yet. It’s stuck somewhere between “We can get to the NBA Finals as a play-in team with what we have” and “we can get there with a little tweaking.” The truth is that this team’s best days are behind them. Tweaking around the edges won’t do anything other than give fans false hope (at least those fans who are still buying the “woof tickets” Riley and Spo are selling).
The Heat has a good young core of players. Call it a supporting cast. What it doesn’t have is a star. Bam, Herro, Powell and Wiggins are, at best, #2 – #4 players, nothing more.
Bam is trying to perform offensively at a level he is consistently unable to attain. He is also being required to perform in a position he is not best suited for (center). He’s trying to carry the team on his back offensively and defensively. That 83 point game against the Washington Generals is the worst thing that could have happened to his previously steady, humble, blue collar, journeyman mentallity. His insistence on forcing up 3 point shots is hurting the team. Unfortunately, I don’t think you can put the genie back in the bottle once he’s been let out. Without a ss team leader, Bam is stuck in “no man’s land” of reality vs expectations. He would be the centerpiece of any trade for a ss or young players and multiple draft picks.
Herro is what, in the corporate world, would be considered an example of the “Peter Principal.” This is when an employee is promoted to his/her highest level of competence, where they remain because they are no longer capable of performing at a higher level. Herro is a glorified Duncan Robinson. He would function best in an environment where his defensive shortcomings could be covered by a superior defense. He is not and will never be a two-way player. Miami can do better. At minimum, he can be traded for an expiring contract and a young player or an expiring contract and multiple second round picks.
Powell is a good #3 scorer. However, like Herro, he is a poor defender. He will be 33 years old next season and does not fit the team’s rebuilding/re-tooling timeline. The best Miami can do is either let his contract expire or find a partner in a sign & trade agreement.
Wiggins is a good #4 player. He’s a good defender with the ability to average 15-17 points per game. However, at 32, he also will not fit Miami’s rebuilding/re-tooling timeline. I believe he will opt out of the final year of his contract in order to sign with a contending team that is willing to offer him a reasonable 3 year contract. Again, the best Miami can do is either let him opt out or find a partner in a sign & trade agreement.
Rozier and Fontecchio will be gone after their contracts expire and their salaries will come off the books.
Most of the remaining players are still on rookie contracts, minimum contracts or reasonable veteran contracts. The exception is Jovic, who, up until now, appears to be another poor contractual decision by Riley. Hopefully, he can be traded as part of a larger package.
Miami has a first and second round draft pick this summer. The team does not have a pick in 2027 (since it was gifted to Charlotte in the Rozier trade). Unfortunately, Riley chose to accept the decision of Silver/the NBA to award the Heat a second round pick to compensate for the skinning received in the Rozier debacle, without pursuing a legal remedy via the courts.
Our competitors in the Southeast Division (Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando and Washington) will all be an upward trajectory next season. Other teams, such as Indiana, Milwaukee and the Bulls should also be challenging for play-in/playoff spots. Where does that leave Miami? Whether or not they choose to rebuild, It leaves them in the lottery.
The reality is, Miami has a few expiring contracts, players it can use in trades and significant cap space. Where the team goes from here is up to the front office. One thing is for sure, because of the overall improvement of teams in the Eastern Conference, mediocrity will no longer ensure Riley the cover of a play-in spot. Whether the decision is made to tweak the roster again or re-build, it appears inevitable that the Heat will be a lottery team for at least the next couple of years. Unfortunately, if Miami is a lottery team in 2026-2027, Charlotte will get the Heat’s 2027 pick.
The next moves are up to Arison and Riley. Hopefully, they will choose wisely.
embid has appendcitis,he needs to hang it up enjoy his bank acct.when healthy which wasnt much a top 10 center all time i would say
Worst case scenario, Miami beats a depleted Sixers team without Embiid in the play-in round and gets lucky against the loser of the #7 vs #8 teams. Welcome to another episode of Groundhog Day.
As I’ve said, my hope to get into the lottery is not based on the hope that they defy the odds to get a top 4 pick, though we’d all be ecstatic if that happened. As noted above, the Heat currently would get the 13th pick. It is mathematically possible for them to move up as high as 11 based on the western conference remaining games and play-in results. For example, if the Heat lose their last 3 games, Portland wins their last 2, the Clippers win to get 7th seed, and the Warriors win to get 8th seed. Will that happen? Almost definitely not, especially as it seems the Warriors have been tanking due to injuries. 12th pick is a real possibility, though. Either way, picking at 13 and 41 has potential to really improve the team.
team is fully healthy and still getting sht results most owners would have fired their coach by now .but this is a family biz.as long as they are making $$$ alls good.hard to support a team thats main goal is $$$ more than winning
If you don’t want to support the team, don’t. I don’t believe that they’re not interested in doing well both on the court as well as financially. And I have supported and been a fan of this team since day one and that won’t change.
im a sports fan first then heat fan i love sports ive lived in miami just about my whole life therefore im a heat fan.i am not happy with this bozo fo.mickeys so cheap one of the richest men in the usa.pats so old.spobot cant coach jack sht w/o a ss like most coaches.this mess all on pat,spos a robot give him good players he wins,give him bam and ty hes good for a playin.i compare the heat to a wife u love them more when theyre not driving u crazy.u love your team a little more when they have a dwade rather than an adebayo
I love my gal even when she’s a pain in the butt. I don’t love my team differently regardless of what players are on it. I call that fair weather fans or front runners. I’m a South Florida teams fan first, then a sports fan.
I have found that I lose my emotional attachment to a team when it no longer reflects my idea of how an organization should be operated. The last example of such a team was the Phoenix Suns at the end of the Dragic era, when Robert Sarver was the owner.
Improve the team? How? Remember, the Heat will be losing a few rotation players this summer.