Ever since the end of the Miami Heat’s underwhelming 2025-26 season, which resulted in an early exit in yet another play-in game, the biggest point of interest for many — myself included — revolved around one thing: The NBA’s draft lottery.
At one point, there was a chance it could’ve moved up to No. 12. But as a result of getting bounced in the play-in, paired with its 43-39 regular season record, the Miami Heat will have the 13th-best lottery odds ahead of the 2026 draft. The lottery is in three days, marking their first appearance over the last half-decade, and while there’s reason to be somewhat optimistic, history suggests that fans should expect to be picking, well, 13th.
The Miami Heat have not had favorable lottery luck:
Apropos of a loose ball in basketball, sometimes you need the ping-pong ball to bounce the right way.
For the Heat, that fortune has yet to occur.
In 11 previous lottery appearances, Miami has never moved up. In fact, in six of those 11 instances, they’ve moved down:
- 2008: Moved down one spot (from No. 1 to 2), drafting Michael Beasley
- 2003: Moved down one spot (from No. 4 to 5), drafting Dwyane Wade
- 1993: Moved down one spot (from No. 9 to 10), drafting Lindsey Hunter, whose rights were traded to the Detroit Pistons
- 1991: Moved down three spots (from No. 2 to 5), drafting Steve Smith
- 1990: Moved down one spot (from No. 2 to 3), drafting Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, whose rights were traded to the Denver Nuggets
- 1989: Moved down three slots (from No. 1 to 4), drafting Glen Rice
The Heat have only appeared in this lottery format once (2019) since it was ratified in September of 2027. Ironically enough, they were also 13th pre-lottery … and, evidently, 13th post-lottery, ultimately drafting Tyler Herro that June.
What does this all mean?:
With the 13th-best odds, the Miami Heat have a 4.8 percent chance at a top-4 pick and a one percent chance at the No. 1 pick. They will have a 92.9 percent chance at sticking at 13, while a 2.3 percent chance of somehow dropping to 14.
If history suggests anything, it’s that the latter two possibilities are the most likely.
The good thing is that, in this system, old history doesn’t hold a ton of weight. Though any jump into the top-14 would require a miracle. No team outside the top-11 pre-lottery has ever made the leap into the top-4. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks made the jump from 10 to 1; in 2024, the Atlanta Hawks jumped from 10 to 1. Before then, the only other team was the Los Angeles Lakers in 2019, who lept from 11 to 4.
For any fans salivating over a top-4 pick, crossing your fingers and toes may not even be enough. Or maybe it will be. The proof will be in the pudding.
To dig itself out of the mess it created, Miami needs luck — and a lot of it. Without luck, it will be hoping that it can pry a Giannis Antetokounmpo away from Milwaukee, or another superstar that becomes free, in an attempt to salvage an arguably unsalvageable situation.
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Given the history, one has to assume Charlotte will end up with a top 4 pick. Every Miami lottery situation has moved the team down, and that’s the only possible path.
However – if you like conspiracy theories and love the NBA draft ones – maybe Miami gets a make good from the NBA for their dragging their feet on Rozier and moves up for the first time in franchise history?
Either way – the lottery should be a big deal for Miami. For as much as Pat and Spo hate playing draft picks, their recent draft records shows they tend to find solid players when they are picking in the top 20.
For his career in Miami I believe his 20th or better selections have been:
Kasparas #20
Kel’el Ware #15
Jaime Jaquez #18
Precious Achiuwa #20
Tyler Herro #13
Bam Adebayo #14
Justice Winslow #10
Michael Beasley #2
Dorrell Wright #19
Dwyane Wade #5
Caron Butler #10
From that list, there hasn’t been a single complete flop. Every player on that list has had multiple seasons in the NBA, with the exception of Kasparas, who couldn’t. A few all-stars and one hall of famer. When you consider they’ve only had 2 picks inside the top 5, that’s not a bad track record.
I hope Adam Silver shocks me and Miami gets moved up, but either way, Miami should get some desperately needed talent infusion, even if it’s only a role player.
Kas should be around 15 pick, a its looks today.
Ware 5-6 pick
JJJ 8-10 pick
Achiuwa around 20 pick
Herro 5-7 pick
Bam no 2 pick
Winslow between 10-20 pick.. its hard to say, I dont know if there is still 10 players from that draft still in the league.
Generally Heat picked players, which were better then expected.
That’s my general feeling, the team hates having draft picks, but has been fairly good at finding the right players when they do.
CBS Sports lists Ja as the 3rd worst contract in the league. Here is their reasoning:
George vs. Morant was one of the hardest debates of the list. Morant is still only 26 and theoretically near his physical peak, but the actual on-court evidence suggests otherwise. His rim and free-throw rates have declined precipitously over the past several years, and the entire theory of him as a positive-value NBA player relies on his ability to get to the basket since he’s a complete non-shooter who doesn’t really defend. So … would you rather have someone in the right age bracket to potentially become a star again if everything goes right? Or would you rather have someone who maxes out as a high-level role player but has more ways of remaining at least somewhat valuable?
I went with the wing. That’s the key. For Morant to become Morant again, some team is going to have to build an offense around the hope that he can do so. Point guard is such an oversaturated position that I’m not sure such a team even exists. Memphis just spent a deadline cycle trying and failing to move him. George may make more money, and he may be older, but I’m reasonably confident almost any team could use him if it could just find a way to pay for him. That’s less clear with Morant. He’s a lottery ticket at this point. Under the best of circumstances, maybe he could recapture some of his old glory, but it seems likelier that he’s just going to be an injury-prone, physically declining player at a position that just can’t abide all of his weaknesses.
This is why the Herro for Ja proposed trades at the trade deadline never made sense, Herro at 20% of the salary cap has much more value than Ja at 25%. The penalties for going above the aprons in the CBA has put more and more focus on player contracts, as the owners intended
If they reform the lottery like the recent proposal suggests and make it so that ALL lottery picks are drawn and teams can still move up even if it’s not to the Top 4, then I think the Heat will be okay moving forward. It’s clear that finding a star through a Top 10 pick is the way to contention in today’s NBA. The Heat should be focused on getting more bites out of that Top 10 pick apple. The lottery reform would make that easier for teams currently stuck in the middle.
Not discounting the value of high draft picks (would be nice to be in top 4 this year), but John Hollinger had an article about how the idea that contenders are only built with top picks from tanking isn’t really true.
OKC is most recent example, their best players went #11 and #12. They did get lucky tanking when Orlando took Banchero #1, allowing them to get Chet #2. That move led to their historically great defense. But even without that and just with SGA and JDub they would be a contender every year
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7251857/2026/05/05/nba-draft-lottery-reform-tanking-odds-overdue/
That last line of this article is unfortunately a very astute and honest one. The Heat will need luck to extricate itself from a very difficult situation, one that holds no easy pathways to short term improvement.
My solution remains…if we draft thirteen, draft Yaxel or Cenac. Trade Herro and either Pelle or JJJ to acquire Ja. Trade draft picks and/or maybe another player (Pelle or JJJ) and pick up a high B+ to low A- level 6’10” to 7 foot big man (Miles Turner, Michael Porter, that level of player). Keep Powell and Wiggins, and everyone else but Simone. See where that takes us. I think we’d be pretty competitive and have the sizzle of Ja to put fannies into the seats and eyes glued to the TV.
This is our easiest path to having a shot. And, of course this path is complicated too. But, the idea of letting Powell and Wiggins go and going younger is quite questionable as no one except Bam is as good as Powell and Wiggins. Maybe someday Ware will be, but maybe not. The Giannis idea is a problem too as they will ask for the moon in an absolute bidding war. And I don’t think anyone really wants the full Monty tank, or even a small one, a tankini. As we will be the Nets or Jazz for three years on that path.
There are no easy answers, as where we stand, if we do a run it back with a little edge trimming approach, it would be the worst route of all. If we do that, I can promise you we are lottery bound in 2027.
I disagree.
Ja, Powell, Bam, Porter or Turner, Wiggins looks ok on paper, attractive to watch, but this is also a very expensive lineup. Mitchell Jovic, Ware, Kas Gardner is a decent bench, but nobody should mistaken that this is a contender team. Maybe PO team ,if everything goes ok.
And most importantly, this team doesn’t have any future.
I would start the team construction with Bam, then picking two young players to start. I would suggest Kas and Ware. Get two quality vets for filling the remain spots.
This team would be much cheaper, not a PO team, maybe not even a play in team, but a team with the future.
See, you are not following the agenda here. (Insert sarcasm font) Let’s see. Get rid of Herro, Pelle, Jaquez, Simone. Do you notice a trend? Everyone would like to see Jovic gone. Might as well say goodbye to Kas too. And no reason to keep Vlad on the 2 way contract, although that’s the one white player that hfl likes and believes he’s going to be some type of superstar I don’t see folks clamoring to get rid of Dru, although I think we already see he is at his ceiling.
I believe, like you, that it’d be best for the team to move on from Powell and Herro and try to get assets back. I wouldn’t mind re-signing Wiggins to a team friendly deal. He is a skilled glue type player. I am not totally against Ja because he’s a thug, I’m against him because of his salary. CBS sports lists his contract as the 3rd worst in the league (#2 Poeltl, #1 Embiid). I will copy and paste the Ja write up above.
I learned, that up to three or four vanillas in the mix is not out of the question, so somebody should stay.
I agree on Ja, its just too risky. Huge contract, limited availability, different playing style…. and doubts, if he is still high level player. Reminds me a bit of Kemba Walker or that small guy from Boston, even Rosier.
But Ja, at his peak, was far better than those guys, although prime Kemba was pretty close.
What you call an agenda is what I call an attempt to field the best possible team,
But, my plan keeps Kaspar and by necessity, Niko. And Simone, and also Ty, are mostly expected by many to be gone.
And, maybe I’m alone, from reading other responses, but I stand by wanting Ja, partly for his excitement and partly for the buy low opportunity. I also think he will cost more than others think but if there is any way to keep Pelle or Jaimie without trading Andrew, Norm, Bam or Davion, I would welcome it. Dru has little value which is why he went unmentioned, same as KJ.
Sometimes you can’t write about every permutation in a post. But at least I am putting out there an overall plan to get back in the mix. And I think we could go pretty deep if we did it my way.
There will be times you say tomato and I respond tomahto. We’ve both clearly stated our opinions and disagreements thereof. Like politics, I don’t expect my explanations to change your mind, nor will yours change mine. But that is mostly true on just that one, albeit important, issue.
As far as Ja, again, my main issue is with his contract, averaging $43m a year for the next two. Per the CBS story I posted above, he doesn’t shoot well and he doesn’t defend well. I’d rather we put our chips elsewhere.
If Ja weren’t making $42M+ over the next two years, it would be worth taking on his reclamation project. If Ja were playing at the superstar level he was at when he signed that max contract, and without the injuries, it might be worth it. But taking on Ja’s $42M contract as a reclamation project, with his injury history, is an absolute no-no. And I’m a Ja fan.
In today’s salary environment, you need to absolutely hit on all of your contracts, especially if you don’t have star level talent on their rookie contracts like SA and OKC.
I was still in the process of writing my comment and now I see you’re saying basically the same thing that I said. I totally agree.