The Miami Heat will be in the NBA Draft lottery, which is on Sunday, for the first time since 2019.
This is a good draft to be in one, although the Heat have the 13th-best odds mere days out from when we discover how the ping-pong balls fall. That means they have a 4.8 percent chance of lucking into the top-4, including a one percent chance at netting the top overall selection, which they’ve never accomplished.
Even though there’s a microscopic chance of scoring a top-4 pick, there’s still technically a chance it happens. Assuming they do, who should be atop their big board, accounting for skill set, needs, and team/schematic fit?! Let’s examine!
1. AJ Dybantsa, F, BYU
6-foot-9 | 210 pounds | Freshman
2025-26 stats: 25.5 PPG, 6.8 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.1 STL, 51.0 FG%, 60.0 TS%, 28.1 PER
Skinny: I don’t think there needs to be much debate here. For me, Dybantsa cemented himself as the No. 1 overall pick in Big 12 play, where he went absolutely bonkers. Over his final 15 games, the lanky 6-foot-9 wing averaged 28.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.9 dimes on 49.0/34.1/79.0 shooting splits.
He’s going to have to clean up his handle, which is still a bit loose. And he tended to be a little too predictable — he went left … a lot. However, he’s still a very good downhill creator who’s one of the most athletic prospects in this class. His skill will translate immediately, and he has a ton of potential on- and off-ball defensively, which would only improve if he landed in Miami.
This is a slam dunk, franchise-changing talent, point blank.
2. Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas
6-foot-5 | 205 pounds | Freshman
2025-26 stats: 20.2 PPG, 4.2 REB, 1.4 STL, 43.8 FG%, 57.8 TS%, 25.4 PER
Skinny: Health concerns notwithstanding, I am a huge fan of Peterson’s game. The shot selection was, at times, iffy. But he was also playing injured; his explosiveness post-injury looked zapped, yet he remained fairly effective as a shot creator and off-ball defender.
We obviously don’t have access to the medicals. But count me in. He thrived off-ball offensively, and in an NBA context where there will be more space, theoretically (Kansas’ spacing was pretty poor), I think his shot creation will have a higher floor and ceiling right away. There are rightful concerns about his playmaking, though I think some of that had to do with the context he was in.
He’s going to be much better than both Tyler Herro and Norman Powell on both ends, especially defensively. He’s not just a one-way scoring guard; he impacts the game in a multitude of ways and will be a primary engine.
3. Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina
6-foot-10 | 215 pounds | Freshman
2025-26 stats: 19.8 PPG, 9.4 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 STL, 1.4 BLK, 57.8 FG%, 62.6 TS%, 31.4 PER
Skinny: If you’re looking for the quintessential Miami Heat player, Wilson fits that to a T.
Wilson only played in 24 games and missed UNC’s final nine games with a hand and thumb injury. But he established himself as a clear top-5 player in this class. He’s an elite athlete; he has an elite motor and competitive demeanor that Erik Spoelstra would L.O.V.E.
Furthermore, Wilson covers an insane amount of ground with his long strides and will be versatile defensively, even though there are some concerns about his processing ability. His size, hand-eye coordination and instincts make up for it. Offensively, Wilson also has good footwork within ~10-15 feet of the rim.
The lone missing piece is a consistent jumper, although I think that will come with more time. Rob Fodor is one of the best shooting coaches in the NBA, so I wouldn’t have any concern about that with Miami.
Wilson has the perfect blend of size, athleticism and motor that fits seamlessly in the 305. Imagine the different lineups Spoelstra would be able to deploy with him, Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware.
4. Darius Acuff, G, Arkansas
6-foot-3 | 190 pounds | Freshman
2025-26 stats: 23.5 PPG, 3.1 REB, 6.4 AST, 48.4 FG%, 60.4 TS%, 25.2 PER
Skinny: Acuff is the best point guard in this class. From Day 1, he would be the Heat’s engine offensively. I still have questions about whether he’ll be a three-level scorer right away (he’s not a vertical athlete), but he’s a phenomenal shotmaker — both in pull-up and spot-up situations — and an elite processor.
He has an answer for every coverage, and he’s capable of blowing by any defender. Acuff is strong in the upper body and knows how to leverage his strength into favorable driving angles. Acuff’s very efficient with the rock in his hands, though he improved off-ball as the season progressed.
However, the biggest concerns are his: 1.) Size, and 2.) Defense. I have a hard time believing he’s 6-foot-3 with shoes on (he looks small on the court), and his defense was catastrophically bad. The Heat wouldn’t draft him for his defense, although they’d have to figure out a way to build one around him.
5. Cameron Boozer, F, Duke
6-foot-9 | 250 pounds | Freshman
2025-26 stats: 22.5 PPG, 10.2 REB, 4.1 AST, 1.4 STL, 55.6 FG%, 65.3 TS%, 33.7 PER
Skinny: Boozer is a tricky case subject, in this instance. He’s No. 3 on my personal board, although there’s reason to have some questions about his fit in Miami due to his lack of athleticism. He’s a below-the-rim small-ball 5.
Make no mistake, Boozer is one of the most polished prospects in this class and will likely thrive just about anywhere. He’s one of the most versatile offensive prospects in this class. He’s an exceptional processor, a very good shotmaker, rebounder and a rock-solid team-defender.
But the Miami Heat lack athleticism, which dings him here. That said, there are few things he doesn’t do exceptionally well, but I couldn’t quite place him above Acuff or Wilson, for them specifically.
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okc 45 lal 44 fn prime bs what is this greedy world coming to.who the f would have thought as a young kid growing up in the 60 s id have to pay to watch a fn bball game
Don’t. F em,! Greedy b@$#+?!$
It’s ruining sports. But, at least most people have Prime because their wives have packages delivered daily.
Nowadays, most people are broke.
1, 3, 9
Heat need bigs as a lot of us have been clamoring here. But my gut feel 1 and 2 will be legit ss. Cross fingers #1 😁😁
The third big can be available in the second round or via trade. Depending on who stays and who goes, they probably need to pick a SF. a PF or a combo SF/PF. Lendeborg is a good combo SF/PF, if he is still available. There are several good PF candidates but not many SGs or SFs in Miami’s range.
I think Yaxel at 6’9” and 7’5” wingspan could also play backup center.
how bout giving vlad a dam shot jeez what a stubborn ars coach/anybody see vlad in college he was real good
Lots of people are good in college.
ok .was jovic?
Did he go to college?
I see Yexel Lenedeborg as more of a SF. Ware, Bam and him together on the front line plus Mitchell and a good two-way SG could be formidable. He reminds me of a younger, slicker, more mobile version of John Collins. https://www.youtube.com/watch? Nate Ament is also another good prospect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et_kH0PWPXs
The Heat need a physical, rebounding, defensive back-up PF/C. It’s pretty obvious Miami doesn’t see much potential in Goldin or he would have been used this year when the team really needed a front court back-up. If he isn’t going to get a shot, I don’t see the Heat re-signing him.
A back-up big isn’t Miami’s top priority. I think there will be several potentially good back-up PF/C candidates in the second round, as well as free agents and maybe a few good prospects that go unsigned in the draft. There may even be one available in a low key trade, unless Heat management and Spo continue to think they “have enough” and don’t need one.
Off topic here but harden is doing his yearly playoff choker routine, if the pistons ousted cavs in the playoffs, that might mean there is probably a chance that donovan gets traded. What would it take for us to get him?
i cant think of another player so good in reg season so bad in playoffs. nobody comes to mind it smells terry rozierish.does the pressure get to james.its still basketball.
More than KD. More than Kahwi. Less than Giannis.
basketball draft is the only sport doesnt do worse drafts first.thats the way the draft should be tank no tank .it leaves room open for fixing the draft like dudes like me think how wemby got to spurs.how bout giving the pathetic generals wemby adam..
The Ping-Pong Ball Drawing (Private)
why is it done behind closed doors,the whole thing is stupid like ive said do it like the other fn sports,worse goes first .wemby should be on the generals not the fn spurs
i strongly believe in discouraging intentional tanking, which I’ve seen for quite a few years now. We’ll see how the new system they’re putting in next season works.
bottom 3 have their own lottery then.put 3 balls in stupid thing .in front of america not behind stage
There are more than enough people involved in that to make sure it is legitimate. The reason it’s behind closed doors is so they could sell more commercial time on TV during the draft position show. All about the Benjamins.
they use to have it so u can see it.my wash generals who pick high every year would like to see it in front of their stupid arses
They DO see it.
How the Lottery Process Works
This totally shoots down your conspiracy theory….
The NBA Draft Lottery procedure includes these specific steps:
The Actual Drawing: Behind closed doors, 14 ping-pong balls are drawn to determine the first four picks of the draft.The Representatives: *****One official representative from each lottery team is in the room to verify the balls are drawn fairly and to record the results.*****Strict Confidentiality: The team representatives are under strict non-disclosure agreements (NDAs)and are not allowed to tell anyone, including their own front offices or fans, about the order until the televised reveal.
the generals have been tanking since wall beale.didnt utah tank and still beat us.are we not tanking u ask wade and haslem they might say yes
No. Losing on a last second shot, trying to win the play-in to get into the playoffs is definitely not tanking. The Heat problem isn’t tanking, it’s not having the right combination of good healthy players.
It’s been more bad choices than anything else, and yes, a predilection, for whatever reason, for certain types of choices. And to sometimes give those players long term contracts. It’s hard to not see it. And I know ignoring it is a beautiful way to be for a decent human being in this world, but not for a basketball fan. This is by far the biggest reason we are mired in mediocrity. And until that situation normalizes, you will have someone on this forum willing to be the guy who confronts our biggest problem.
If you can prove that, please do so, and not just by the numbers, but with verifiable facts. As I’ve pointed out, Kas was better or as good as, players chosen before and after him. Herro would go higher in a re-draft. Jaquez would go higher. Pelle would go much higher. This isn’t about social justice or being nice or pc. If Philon or Yaxel or Ament are available at 13 and they pick Stirtz, I’ll defer to you. But not if they pick Steinbach. I’ve tried to move away from this issue. You think it’s conspiracy, I think it’s bs. Simple as that.
Ok, you have a right to your opinion. I feel just as strongly about mine. Except, there is no conspiracy theory, just a tendency, and I cannot say why.
I just know he gave Herro, Robinson, and Jovic contracts where they all have led to having to deal with negative repercussions. Herro signed the rookie extension for 30 million (plus incentives), and that is probably why he was unmovable twice. Duncan had a three year deal for 48 million and when we wanted to give him 20 mill, he opted out and we had to take Simone, which was pretty close to fair value, but a little below. And Jovic’s contract, as Sebastian Maniscalco would say, “Why would you doooo that?”
So, it isn’t just the accumulation of certain players, it has been missteps with contracts too.
But, most of all, look at the league, what do you see? By next round there will only be OKC, who, btw, I have no problem with their players. That’s a winning team with a healthy mix. Again, compare and contrast us with the rest of the league, does anyone else have five such players in the rotation? And, Jovic is sure to become a sixth as when you pay someone big you force him back into the lineup ad infinitum. But again, I ask you, does anyone look like us? I rest my case.
I didn’t like the Duncan contract, the Jovic contract, and the Whiteside contract before that. I don’t agree that the Herro contract is what made him unmovable. I believe it is about availability. I think he is definitely worth $30m per season.
Your glass half empty approach is clear when you criticize bad contracts but fail to give credit for the contracts given to players like Jaquez, Pelle, Ware, Dru, or Mitchell.
You tried to make the Celtics loss an affirmation of your position, but there is no question that they had a very good season and obviously had to have beaten a lot of teams that had few or no Black players. And they lost a game 7 with their second best player out.
I do not suggest there is no validity to your position. But the shortcomings of this team were due to many factors, not just one. Injuries for sure. The fact that Powell’s numbers dropped precipitously in the second half of the season, possibly due to lingering injuries. Lack of consistency. Questionable rotations and failure to adjust on the fly by Spo.
Again, if a really good player like Steinbach is best player available at 13, I strongly hope they take him. And like I said, if they take a decent, but lower rated white player like Stirtz at 13, that would give me serious pause.
**my bad. “….who had few or no WHITE players”.
Good response. You’re right about a lot of things you say. And the Celt’s did do quite well in the regular season, but the playoffs are different. And they lost to a good team, but the Knicks are showing the Sixers to be not a great team. Plus, some of those wins that made the series close were with Embiid out.
You are right about other factors contributing to our shortcomings. And the biggest one is why the Celtics were able to overcome their weaknesses to the extent they did- the Heat have no superstars anymore to cover up for their deficiencies.
You didn’t hear me upset about the make up of our team when we had the good Covid year and the play-in run to the finals. Those years Jimmy took similar, but slightly better, line-ups farther than anyone thought, as he had Dragic with Bam (and Oladipo for some of those runs). But, those days are gone and we can’t have rosters like this anymore, they can’t compete.
And that’s the part you never address, which is why do no other teams try to do what we are doing to the extent we do. Why are we the whitest of all the rosters, and why, for fifty years, does no one else try to do this? LA and Boston, the two good teams that approach our level of vanilla, both have the superstar power to help to somewhat overcome their shortcomings. Answer that question, why does no one else send out a roster that looks like ours? Thats the question you avoid.
In other news, I was happy to see Kel’el, Pelle and Jaime vacationing together on the Fear the Heat site. They are the Heat’s future…not trading chips.
Oops.
For a moment there, I thought you were speaking Welsh.
That’s common. Klingon is frequently mistaken for Welsh…
If that’s our future, we won’t be a bad team, but we won’t be a good one either. And that’s the problem with going young as those guys, with the exception of the possible future development of Ware, are useful rotation guys, but only marginal starters.
That’s why you need lottery picks, the higher the better.
I noticed the Bucks plan to make a decision soon about trading Giannis if he does not sign a four-year, $275M contract extension to stay with the club. Per Eric Nehm of The Athletic, on Wednesday, Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam confirmed he doesn’t want to wait until October 1st to make a decision about Antetokounmpo’s future. Haslam said during a news conference introducing Taylor Jenkins as the Bucks’ new coach that the team wants to have clarity on Antetokounmpo’s future before the 2026 NBA Draft gets underway on June 23.
That’s nearly $70M per year. No wonder they can’t afford to get him any good help, other than “B players” (Turner, Portis and Kuzma). Giannis alone will be eating up a third of their budget. Miami should move on from that pipe dream. He’s not worth a veteran like Wiggins or Herro plus up to 2-3 young players (Ware, Jaquez, Larsson, Jakucionis?) and multiple (2-4) draft picks. FTS!
He makes the max salary, ~35% of the cap, same as Jaylen Brown, Tatum, KAT, AD, etc, and has won MVP, DPOY, Finals MVP. Been in MVP conversation every year including to start this past year
His salary isn’t the reason for Milwaukee’s lack of talent, they have a bad draft record and also traded their future firsts for Jrue to win the title and then Jrue for Dame to get Giannis to resign
Before the trade deadline, teams linked to Antetokounmpo were the Knicks, Timberwolves, Warriors, Heat and Cavaliers. Sam Quinn of CBS Sports noted in April that up to 18 NBA teams could become “plausible suitors” for the two-time MVP.
If elephants had wings…
The odds are slim and none in the lottery. However Riley could trade for a top 4 pick, but don’t count on that either.
Since it is my strong belief of how unlikely ascending to a top 4 pick is, I have limited my research to which players are likely to be on the board at 13. If that miracle does happen, we all will have plenty of time to assess what and who is best for the team.
Amen. Prepare for prospects who may reasonably be available at #13 and be pleasantly surprised if the team lucks out and gets a higher pick. There is plenty of time to scout top level prospects if that happens.
2026 Lottery Odds Breakdown for Miami:
The only other way Miami can climb in the selection order is to trade assets (players/picks) to one of the teams with a higher pick.
Yesterday’s CBS Sports mock draft has Lendeborg going #8 and Heat selecting Brayden Burries, SG from Arizona at #13.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2026-nba-mock-draft-aj-dybantsa-cameron-boozer/
I would satisfied with that pick, and get a big in the 2nd round .
Every one is different. Draft Room still shows Yaxel. ESPN shows Philon. We won’t have much of an idea until the 10th pick is off the board. But pretty much whoever it is, will be a very good player, someone that can contribute right away.
Hopefully. First lottery pick since Herro?
Whoever it is, they have to be on target, they simply can’t afford to miss on this pick.
Absolutely!