What must happen for Heat to advance to the Emirates Cup knockout stage?

Miami Heat Emirates Cup — (Photo Courtesy of the NBA)

The Miami Heat close Emirates Cup group stage play Wednesday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Heat enter Wednesday night’s matchup at 12-6 with a 2-1 record in Emirates Cup play. However, for cup play, point differential matters a lot — and the Heat are a plus-46 after their dominant 36-point win over the Chicago Bulls last week.

As a result, Miami has put itself in favorable position to advance to its first-ever knockout stage. But what needs to happen? Let’s examine!

Heat clinch Group C with win AND Knicks loss:

At 2-0, the Milwaukee Bucks are the only team above Miami in Group C. The Knicks (1-1), Bulls (1-2) and Hornets (0-2), are currently below the Heat.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be playing in Wednesday’s game. Miami, on the other hand, will be fully healthy for the first time this season.

With a Knicks win against the Charlotte Hornets, they would own the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Heat, eliminating them from being the sole Wild Card team. However, Miami could clinch the group outright with a win Wednesday followed by a Knicks loss.

Well, what if both teams win?

Let’s be honest: For as much trouble as New York’s had on the road, barring an unforeseen outcome, the Knicks will likely beat Charlotte, who’s 4-13 on the year.

Should the Heat also win, they will need help from the Bucks on Friday, when they play the Knicks. The Knicks control their own destiny; if they win both games, they clinch the group.

Now, the Heat could still advance to the knockout round with their point differential. Though accomplishing that became a little more difficult after the Magic’s 41-point rout over the 76ers on Tuesday. Orlando, who’s 3-0 in Group B, has a plus-61 point differential.

Let’s say the Heat won by 10 on Wednesday. The Magic would have to lose by six or more points for Miami to definitively advance. If they tied in terms of point differential, the ensuing tiebreaker is based on who has more total points in group stage play (Heat has 401 to Magic’s 372).

Miami must also ensure it has a greater point differential than Cleveland (2-1), whose point differential is plus-33 entering Friday’s game.

What if Heat lose?

Well, let’s summarize it by saying they would need a lot more help. For their sake, let’s hope that doesn’t happen!

With just two nights of Group Play left, 23 teams remain in the chase for the final six Knockout Rounds spots in the Emirates NBA Cup.

The scenarios for tonight's games ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/x5GB1JgXRM
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) November 26, 2025