Whether it’s their 127-119 combined record or their middling 0.7 NET Rating over the last three combined seasons, the Miami Heat are in a state of mediocrity.
They lost Duncan Robinson to the Detroit Pistons this offseason. But they added Simone Fontecchio, Norman Powell and re-signed guard Davion Mitchell. Refreshed and revived, the Heat aim to make noise in what’s considered a wide-open East heading into the 2025-26 season.
But how much better is Miami, coming off their worst season in a decade (37-45)? According to the computers, it’s not by much.
ESPN projects Heat to finish as No. 8 seed at 42-40:
The Miami Heat have been a play-in team each of the last three seasons, becoming the first team in NBA History to win two play-in games on the road to clinch a postseason berth last April. Over the last three years, you could essentially pencil in the Hawks, Bulls and Heat into the play-in. Perpetual mediocrity.
Well, ESPN simulation No. 620 projects a fourth-straight play-in appearance for Miami, which it has finishing 42-40 as the No. 8 seed in the East.
Here’s how their simulation has the top-10 in the East faring:
- Orlando Magic (57-25)
- New York Knicks (50-32)
- Atlanta Hawks (47-35)
- Indiana Pacers (47-35)
- Toronto Raptors (46-36)
- Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
- Miami Heat (42-40)
- Chicago Bulls (41-41)
- Boston Celtics (40-42)
There’s always one surprise “Wait, they made the top-6?” each season. Last year, it was the Detroit Pistons; in 2023-24, it was the Indiana Pacers; in 2022-23, it was the New York Knicks. The Toronto Raptors, projected to win 37-38 games, would keep that trend going.
ESPN is also projecting that Cleveland takes a considerable dip after one of the franchise’s most successful seasons ever. It’s also projecting little regression from Indiana’s output minus Tyrese Haliburton, with the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks staying afloat amid the offseason drama.
Miami remains a pretty pedestrian 42-40 in its eyes. Additionally, ESPN is projecting them to lose both of its play-in games to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls, who the Heat have owned in the play-in since the tournament’s inception, and earn the 14th pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
The Heat have had success drafting there, but that doesn’t seem very optimal.
It’s safe to say the computers aren’t large fans of Miami heading into the 2025-26 season. Thankfully, the players have to play the games, but if recent history says anything, there won’t be much of a different outcome in 2025-26.
Time will tell!
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If Miami can pick up a good front court player that allows Ware and Bam to start together and a high assist/high scoring point guard to bring out the best in others (especially Ware and Bam), I think Miami can go far this year. It would probably take Herro, Powell or Wiggins and 1-2 young assets and 1-2 first round picks.
If no such trades are made I see Miami as a 6-10 place team, at best. If the team suffers any significant injuries, I see it as a lottery team.
Right now, Riley has the team with one foot in and one foot out of contention. He needs to make a choice whether to gamble future potential in order to improve the team now -OR- consider 2025-2026 a gap year and focus on getting rid of assets by the trade deadline and beginning a major retooling/rebuilding process over the summer.
Okay, this simulation is obviously ridiculous.
But this Heat team does feel like 3-day old leftovers. Like we had a delicious meal with Jimmy Tyler and Bam. Then we had some leftovers with Bam and Tyler and a couple young guys last year. Now we opened the fridge and it’s Bam and Tyler and a couple young guys again, and I’m like “can we just order pizza instead?”
the fridge is void of filet mignon
It’s like we’ve got a little leftover meat, but it’s a couple days old and we’re gonna chop it up and cook it up in some beans and rice with half an old onion. I think it’s time we get some new ingredients
maybe we need a new shopper for the groceries.
See, I completely disagree. Wiggins was put into a weird situation last season and I don’t think we really got to see what he can do. I’m excited to see Wiggins with the advantage of playing a full season with us. Powell changes our dynamic a lot, and I want to see how he works with the rest of the team. Ware needs polish, sure, but this is the year for him to get it, and Jakucionis has shown flashes of brilliance in the preseason. The two of them together could be something really special.
What’s got me down is how goddamn injured we are right now. We’re not going to really be able to see what this team is about until maybe December. We don’t have one big superstar now that Duncan’s gone, but we do have a bunch of really solid guys, and I think we’re deeper than most people, even fans, are giving us credit for.
Kudos for mentioning Duncan. You deserves another one for superstar.
Funny
I like your optimism Emily. I don’t have much faith in Wiggins, but I’ve heard good things about Jaku, and the Heat are showing a lot of confidence in Jovic, who I’ve always liked. Ware reminds me a little too much of Whiteside. I like Davion and Dru. There’s some good players here.
Sometimes leftovers are great. I’ve cooked 2-day old meat and 3-day old chicken in red beans with veggies over rice and it’s fantastic. And we know Spo is a great Chef. Maybe this team is a top-4 seed at Christmas and I’m fully on board.
Still, I look a this team led by Tyler and Bam with and I’m just not excited. I think one of those young guys needs to step up as a second-best player, or there needs to be a major roster shakeup. I can’t spend another six months watching these guys go 40-42 and make the play-in again.
just a simulation. funny outcome for a lot of teams but who knows? one week to go before real tip off.
Atlanta #3? Toronto #5? Cleveland #7? The guy programming the computer that came up with that top 10 projection must be smokin (or sniffin) some pretty potent crack(s).
Young, like Herro, didn’t get an extension agreement. I wonder if there is a possible trade on the horizon?
brogdon retires good just in the knick of time before season starts
Too bad, seemed like he was still capable of contributing, but I doubt the Knicks will be too negatively impacted.
it will def hurt their bench 30.
What does everyone think about Steve Settle? He is exactly the size player we need, but can he play? Is there any chance this is a shrewd move that could end up being part of the rotation?
theyre settling for scrapes
Yes, now I see, likely just a g leaguer.
“Scraping” the bottom of the barrel.
Strictly G league for now. Has good size, plays a position of need. However, I watched him in summer league and he didn’t make much of an impact.
take quitter and unc out add norm fonzi dru are we better not sure?will find out soon.
You forgot Wiggins, Mitchell and #20 pick (Jakucionis).
they were here for what was it 30 games..if jimmy cared i wouldnt trade for powell and wiggy together..jimmy was a pass first guy knew when his team needed points .and when others needed pts bb iq off the charts.i dont like him sm but gotta give peops to his talent
Since you included quitter’s trade going out, I thought I would include the by-products of the trade (Wiggins, Mitchell and #20 pick) coming in. Not a bad deal when you think of it in exchange for a whiny quiet quitting primadonna b****. Jus sayin…
would have preferred kd for quitter
Straight up? I wouldn’t disagree with that.
Espn is some heat haters
That computer is a bit off. Look, where Toronto and Cleveland are.