The Miami Heat lost Duncan Robinson to the Detroit Pistons in a sign-and-trade Tuesday.
Robinson, 31, was a quintessential pro and the poster child for the Heat’s developmental system, growing into the greatest shooter in franchise history. After all, he does have the most 3-point makes in both the regular season and playoffs, in addition to the most made 3s in a single playoff game, in Heat history.
While his back has flared up in each of the last two seasons, what he provided as a floor spacer, movement shooter, secondary/tertiary downhill creator and advantage exploiter won’t be forgotten. Arguably no player was more integral to Bam Adebayo’s success offensively than Robinson.
Now, the Heat must find a way to replace him, even at the cost of going younger. Simone Fontecchio is a better shooter than his 36.3 3-point percentage indicates, but there needs to be another outside source. Miami’s young core of Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez, Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson will need space to operate, and Robinson’s presence was a huge part of their success offensively regardless of the other four players surrounding him.
How are they going to do that? Let’s talk about it!
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New Blockbuster Three-Team Trade Proposal Sends Andrew Wiggins + Jaime Jaquez to The Lakers, Rui Hachimura To Miami (per Atlanta Hawks on SI)
Hawks Receive: Gabe Vincent
Lakers Receive: Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr
Heat Receive: Rui Hachimura, Dalton Knecht, and an unprotected 2028 1st round pick swap (via LAL)
A pick swap may be worth absolutely nothing if Miami has a lower standing/higher draft pick in 2028 than the Lakers. Wiggins is worth more than just Hachimura and Knecht.
However, if Riley can get the Lakers to agree to the preceding pick swap -PLUS- actually swapping picks (their 2026 for Miami’s 2029 or 2030) I would go for it. That would give Miami 2 first round draft picks in 2026 (their own and L.A.’s) plus an expiring contract (Hachimura) and a player on a rookie contract (Knecht).
“Per NBA insider Jovan Buha, the Heat would want a package of Dalton Knecht, Rui Hachimura and a first-round draft pick from the Lakers in exchange for Wiggins.” Whether LeBron stays or goes may hinge on this trade.
Hold out Riley. You are in the driver’s seat! Get the package you want or just be patient until the right trade comes along.
It looks like Miami is already courting Lillard and may recruit Beal if the Suns buy him out. Both would be on veteran’s minimum contracts for 2 years, since Bucks and Suns would be on the hook for their entire salaries. If that happens, it would make a few folks expendable…specifically, Herro and Wiggins. Both are worth young players with potential plus 1st round picks. There are a number of desperate teams out there, so things may get very interesting. Meanwhile, Miami can continue developing its young players, accumulating draft picks and trying to unload expiring contracts.
***First Summer League Game Tomorrow vs Spurs @ 1:30 P.M. E.T. on NBA TV.
I’m showing 4:30
I’m sorry. You are right. I automatically knock off 3 hours for PT since I’m on west coast. Here’s actual schedule ET.
Jeez. it feels like two weeks ago we were talking about getting Kevin Durant to replace Jimmy Butler. Now we are wondering if we’ll even be able to replace Duncan Robinson? This is starting to feel like the most disasterus Heat offseason since they resigned Dion Waiters
the only player teams really want is bam .guys like ty and wiggy aint bringing u back to much so might as well keep them.the only free agents avail next year will be coby white mikhail bridges all the good ones locked up.this is a bad sit we are in,im for trade bam and ty suk for few yearsget high picks diff makers not jjj jovic pelle kasperitis type players.otherwise your looking at playin teams for a while
Yup, and nobody, absolutely nobody, wanted Duncan who now has a 3 year $48 million contract with $24 million guaranteed.
There have been talks of trades, but that’s it. I’m not saying something is going to happen, but if it does, it’s probably going to be a bit since teams are assessing after all the non-Heat related things that went down.
Related, Lakers SB Nation just put up an article on the Wiggins trade talk. Wiggins for Rui, Knecht and a 1st, which Lakers said nope. The comments are petty funny.
The Heat are pretty far under the tax. They haven’t added one free agent. Have the Heat signed a free agent above the vet’s minimum since Lowry?
They have no room on their roster. I personally would buy out Love but they love this UD role, which also drove me crazy.
Above vet’s minimum is key lol. Thomas Bryant? Maybe. I’d have to look it up.
I think there were four things that really lead to where Miami is right now:
1) Lowry’s body started failing him maybe a season or two sooner than we were all expecting. He was good for a little while, arguably better than Goran would have been, but his skills dropped off a cliff and in hindsight the team would have been better off keeping Goran and Precious.
2) Oladipo’s injury was worse than expected. Self-explanatory: he barely even got a chance to suit up in a Heat uniform before re-injuring himself, and then re-injuring himself again. Signing an injured player is always a gamble, but our dice came up snake-eyes on this one.
3) Rozier shit the bed. There’s no other way to describe this. Yeah, stats were going to go down when you’re moving from a team where you’re the #1 option to a team where you’re maybe the #3 option, but he has not come even close to expectations yet. Maybe next year with his allegations cleared he’ll be better. But he hasn’t even been a starter-quality player.
4) Jimmy the Rat. This was a personnel management failure. I think Jimmy was a tough assignment, and he made some poor decisions, but Miami legitimately fumbled this one. If they weren’t going to extend him last summer, they should have been shopping him around for trades the moment the season started.
I think if even *one* of those four things had fallen the other way, if Lowry had lasted a bit longer, if Oladipo had working legs, if Rozier had been even 75% of what we expected from him, or if Jimmy Buckler hadn’t buckled, then I see at least one more trophy in our case.
And maybe in that scenario, we wouldn’t have had to trade our best player to Detroit in the first place.
All that said, I still think our team is in better shape right now than it was in the Whiteside-Dion days.
yeah, I mean I think the Jimmy run was generally successful, if you consider he was here five and a half years and we had three good playoff runs. but the past few offseasons have been rough.
Two offseasons ago was the failed Dame trade. A bummer, but it happens. Sometimes you swing and miss.
Last offseason, we all kind a knew it was time to trade Jimmy. The Heat didn’t do it, and it blew up in their face.
This offseason, Pat said at his press conference that changes were needed, an that it was time to rebuild the roster. So far we’ve added the 20th pick in the draft and traded a bench player for another bench player.
One bad offseason can happen to anyone. Three bad offseasons in a row is starting to make a pattern.
Why does everything have to happen in the offseason? This is a little bit of a repeat of what I said about Terry in another thread, but for the next three months, all anyone is going to see when they look at our roster is “historic meltdown against the Cavaliers.” You don’t sell when your stock value is down. That’s how we got Andrew Wiggins.
If someone comes knocking on our door looking for one of our guys specifically, then that puts us more in the driver’s seat and options should be explored. But if we start panic shopping right now, we’re going to end up with even bigger roster problems than we already have.
Sure. But if not now, when? When was the last time the Heat did anything to make their team better (aside from drafting) since the Lowry trade?
Are you saying that the Miami front office is to blame for Oladipo’s knee getting screwed up? Or for Rozier turning into a G-league player? Those were both moves that *should have* made the team better. And we’ve had really shitty luck. Again, the Heat front office isn’t blameless. But I think a lot of folks are underselling just how unlucky this roster has been.
You remember that time we signed Mario Chalmers to a 10-day because we literally couldn’t meet the minimum requirements to field a team?
We made it to the Finals with a roster full of undrafted guys that we developed in-house. Maybe the answer is just to develop guys in-house in the first place. Maybe that’s the best thing that we can do.
When? When golden opportunities present themselves. Until then, no need to sweat.
There are a bunch of teams out there whose fans have high expectations about this coming season who will be getting desperate. Miami should sit back and see what offers come in. If any are for expendable players, Riley needs to get the word out and let teams fight to outbid each other. Heat could come out ahead with young players and draft picks, if Riley plays his cards right.
Meanwhile, time for everyone to chill and enjoy the Summer League.
Miami’s sweep was expected since Cleveland was the #1 team (64-18) and Miami finished 10th (37-45). The Cavs were favored to meet OKC in the NBA Finals! Cleveland’s lopsided loss to Indiana (4-1) was a much bigger story than the Miami sweep.
The one of the four, and when you put them all together that’s a lot of heartbreak, that gets to me the most is Oladipo. When we acquired him it felt like our future was very bright. And that is a good comment about Lowry, because when we first got him, he still contributed fairly well.
very well thought of until the last sentence.pat should have seen turtle was declining.dipo was always hurt.rozier was impossible to forsee.pat needed to kiss jimmys ass same with bron big ego.mr riley.
also, Dion and Whiteside out here catching strays
Notice nobody ever mentions James Johnson? They might be the one to catch a fist. We’re like they gave too much money to Bumpy, Hassan, Dion, and some other guy I conveniently forgot his name. 😉
Just in case James Johnson reads the HHH comment section, I just want to make it clear that I am not the person who said that
Tyler Johnson (the other half of the Brothers Johnson). Is he Bumpy?
No way do you kiss the ass of a player that started quitting on you in 2024 and talks smack when he’s not even on the court. LeBron was totally different. Didn’t quit, worked hard, said Heat should draft Napier, and they did.
I agree with all 4!
Butler and Riley was a macho/ego driven thing. Riley didn’t back down and apologize for calling Butler out in public and telling him to shut up, then he refused to give him an extension or trade him. Butler said f/u and forced his hand, lowering his trade value in the process. When Riley ultimately gave in and traded Butler, he got fleeced. Personal egos should not take priority over the good of the team. For mishandling that situation from beginning to end, Riley should have been given his walking papers.
I miss you guys already, even the ones who drive me nuts.
I don’t want to be negative, I like looking on the bright side, but can’t anyone see we are reduced to grasping at straws now? We go ratcheting to and fro from letting the kids get a shot one day, to putting our hopes on an aging injured player the next. We are in a theater of low expectations with a paucity of good choices. Other than Boston or Indiana, who both had terrible misfortunes befall them, you would be hard pressed to find more than two or three franchises with as little to dream about, at least for the next couple seasons.
Hey, maybe I pushed the doom and gloom a little too hard, and I will try to lighten up, every now and then find the sunny side of life a little more. I was just really frustrated and disappointed.
Truth is we all need each other, especially going into what does not look like a great year. There will still be things to watch for, players to cheer on. And most of all, the knowledge that in the nba your never more than three good players away from relevance.
I took a day off to collect my thoughts and I’m back.
Go Heat!
You are back!!!! Great!!!!
You are wrong about miserable franchises. I would rank them in following order:
Flying high, landing low:
76ers,NO ,PHO
Flying low, heading nowhere:
WAS,CH, CHI,UT, SAC, PTB
good teams with idiots in FO
DAL, IND, NY
In purgatory.
MIA,AT, MILL, MEM, GS, LAC
Flying low, heading somewhere:
BN,TR,SA.
Ascending young teams:
MAGIC, DET, MINN,
Contenders without many issues.
CLE, BOS, OKC,HOU,LAL, DEN
I believe, that only fan bases from teams in past three categories can be satisfied for some reason, and those three categories contains 12 teams. Miami is in purgatory section, which makes us mostly unhappy.
The good thing about this is, that first positive section, flying low heading somewhere is close and can be accessible in a year, and section ascending young teams a year later.
I know, that at least three of you think, that Mia should land in section with idiots in FO, but Riley is still better then those, who sells a superstar for nothing, disintegrate champion level team because of a little bit of money, and fire a successful coach without replacement in mind.
My conclusion is, that at least 12 teams fans are more miserable than us, and five more at about the same level.
This makes us the middle of the bunch, and not two or three from bottom.
Again, welcome back.
Thanks. Good to be here.
Interesting and pretty good rankings. Maybe I’d place Boston in the short term lower, and the Knicks and Mavs higher, but I can see your logic. One things for sure, fortunes sure can change quickly, as quickly as Sacramento falling back to earth.
Good stuff. And funny.
Good analysis Vagi.
Purgatory isn’t bad for Miami. Unlike some teams that have been living in the Lottery Motel, this coming season may be our low spot. Right now, depending on how much some of the bottom feeders are able improve with draft picks, free agents and trades, I see Miami as a borderline lottery team.
Nonetheless, I think our young guys and team may surprise a few people. I also think a couple of players we don’t expect are going to break out of their shells and elevate their games to higher levels (e.g., Jovic, Jaquez, Larsson, Johnson and maybe even Rozier and Wiggins, if they are still around).
If we don’t expect too much from this team during this transition period, we won’t be too disappointed. Sometimes, you need to take one step back in order to take two steps (or more) forward.